Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[pejaten] 04/9/2018 23:46

In the call, they are confident enough to discuss m and a opportunities. They were not at all concerned about any breach but said that if it did happen they were confident that they would get waiver.

[hpcg] 04/9/2018 23:19

I'd love to have to the power to move markets with my words but except for a handful of private investor ramps and micro caps what is written on bulletin boards is simply irrelevant. For me I don't see the point in rushing back in. The possibility they might need a waiver is not the waiver itself, its the indication that the business is only slowly rebounding. Nor is it clear that rates for offshore wind will change. The first US project kicks of next year, so possibly sending a platform over to Massachusetts would kill two birds with one stone, tightening supply in the North Sea as well, but it looks like the build rate will be very slow so probably not worth it.

I completely agree with their policy of not locking in recession level rates over the medium term but as they say that leads to near term uncertainty. I can see the share price slowly drifting higher, but not the type of powerful cyclical rebound that makes for exciting gains.

[trident5] 04/9/2018 23:08

Hpcg just said there was nothing today to tempt him to rush back ion - seems entirely reasonable given today's poor results, low value backlog, and a question mark about the lending covenant about to crystallise.

As for the "directors are confident" statement - they're not exactly going to say anything different.

[lomcovaks] 04/9/2018 19:14

hpcg - Talking your own book there. You must be annoyed your put isn't working out it seems?

It also says this in the statement 'the Directors are confident that either a sufficient value of contracts will be awarded or that the Group will be able to obtain a waiver from covenant testing and accordingly have adopted the going concern basis of accounting in preparing the condensed consolidated financial statements.'

Incidentally, it's breach not breech. That's also in the statement. Pay closer attention at the back there!

[hpcg] 04/9/2018 10:15

The issue specifically carries on in to H2 if contracts are not signed - that's what is says in the statement!

[338] 04/9/2018 10:08

The issue happened in H1 and does not continue in H2. The Bad news is over now... I think

[hpcg] 04/9/2018 09:47

Warning on the possibility of a covenant breech, albeit in the mildest terms. I don't see any obvious reason to rush back in here.

[338] 04/9/2018 07:34

GMS is back to profit in H2 2018

[mick] 31/8/2018 17:06

Interims due next Tuesday I think.

[trident5] 31/8/2018 16:18

Seems to be slowly breaking out of the recent tight trading range.

[my retirement fund] 21/8/2018 11:54

Since this stock is yet to see any sensible upside then I dont think your likely to see significant selling based on seasonal demand variations.Patience here will be rewarded and if anything the price could advance anytime here imo.

[hpcg] 21/8/2018 11:30

WG. also reported good activity in its first half results today. I am bullish the sector over the medium term but I think near term oil weakness, despite Iran sanctions, will hurt sentiment. I'd like to see Brent bottom; it may have done when it reached down to 70 but I'm not yet convinced.

[mount teide] 21/8/2018 11:13

Rystad turns bullish on Oil Field Services predicting a return to the 2014 boom years over a 5 year outlook.

Clarksons and Braemar - both heavily weighted to the sector also recently reported an uplift in activity across the industry after many years of deep recession.



Global Oilfield Service Sector to Hit Pre-Downturn Market Levels by 2024



Rystad Energy announced Friday that it expects the global oilfield service sector to be back at pre-downturn market levels by 2024.

The independent energy research and business intelligence company said shale will make up 23 percent of the total service market in 2024, compared to 19 percent in 2014.

“Offshore is losing market share due to the sanctioning draught in 2015-2017, which is keeping greenfield spending at lower levels going forward,” Rystad said in a statement published on its website.

“In terms of service markets, well services and commodities, subsea and MMO will surpass 2014 levels in 2024, but drilling contractors and EPCI will not due to continued pressure on service prices, downsizing and efficiency gains in the value chain,” the statement added.

Earlier this year, a report from BMI Research outlined that oilfield services companies around the globe would face stronger demand for their services this year.

“As some of the industry's most vulnerable companies to the fall in crude prices, rising commodity prices and strengthening demand for onshore services is reviving this sector after a three-year contraction,” BMI analysts said in a statement sent to Rigzone back in February.

“Having retired or pulled back from a number of segments since 2014, we expect OFS [oilfield services] firms will redeploy assets into the field this year as investment activity begins to recover,” the analysts added.

In the report, BMI highlighted that a rise in crude prices had boosted revenues at the top global OFS companies.

“At Schlumberger and Halliburton, Q4 17 revenue rose by 15.1 percent year-on-year, 47.7 percent year-on-year, respectively,” the analysts stated.

Last month, Rystad revealed that oil majors are “on pace” to approve over $37 billion in projects during the calendar year. The company said over 30 percent ($12 billion) of these had already been approved during the second quarter.

BP plc, Eni S.p.A, Royal Dutch Shell plc, Total S.A, ExxonMobil Corporation and Chevron Corporation approved over $77 billion worth of greenfield projects from 2015 to the first quarter of 2018, Rystad revealed back in July.

[hpcg] 20/8/2018 10:46

Approaching the worst season for oil; Cushing stocks will start to rebuild. I'd rather risk missing upside than downside. There is plenty of time to buy back in if a recovery has set in. Right now I think it is safer to wait for the interims on 4 Sept.

[bmw30csl] 20/8/2018 05:12

Funny time to give up I think. Small vessels will get work as adnoc normalises.

[hpcg] 16/8/2018 10:55

I'm out, balance of probabilities is not positive IMO. Even if results and forward statement are positive I think what happening to the oil price, not least coming in to a turnaround period and seasonal weakness, will dampen any enthusiasm.

[trident5] 02/8/2018 17:23

Standard Life have been buying - from a non-disclosable position to over 5%.

[hpcg] 02/8/2018 12:58

My only oil related exposure now. Almost by definition if Gulf council states are aiming to pump more they'll need the machinery to do so.

[mick] 02/8/2018 11:46

I suspect there have been big trades going through but won't be reported until end of day.

[bmw30csl] 02/8/2018 11:37

big volume yesterday though

[phowdo] 02/8/2018 09:10

Less than £10k volume tho.
I wouldnae be chasing that.

[mick] 02/8/2018 09:04

Looks like you were correct about that break!

[trident5] 01/8/2018 14:56

Richtea - that's helpful then. It may go up or down some time in the future?
Got any more pearls?