The OPEC+ news was good new too as they are increasing production come September. Not that it matters too much in areas we operate as UAE and Qatar haven't cut back, the latter being gas mainly anyway. These are still some of the most economically advantaged oil fields in the world. My price targets remain the same, 28-32p end this year, and 40p end 2025 with some form of dividend in addition. |
Seems the interest rate cycle is finally turning down.
Good for any indebted entity with financing costs linked to that cycle. |
HTG also seems to have taken a dent with the weaker oil price, which seems to have drowned out the momentum in the order book |
Interesting that a PI was able to accumulate over a notifiable holding, which must have cost north of 2 million quid even at the lows. I have capital returns starting to flow in now, and almost everything else I own is up while GMS is in this period of consolidation, so I am drip buying here again.
It occurred to me that the company could accelerate the warrant take up, or return value to just existing shareholders by paying a dividend. That would be owed to common, but the warrants do not qualify. This isn't a now issue, something for the new year perhaps. |
$47m is indeed Profit After Tax for 2024.Variations in PAT stem from differences in depreciation charge estimate.
Better to focus on ebitda which is around the $95m mark across all broker estimates,and likely to exceed $100m in my view if vessels coming off hire this year are renewed without disruptions and at higher rates. |
WJCCGHCC17 May '24.
Zeus have PAT of $47mm for this year rising to $54.8mm next year.
Hi. Can i just confirm those figures are PAT and not PBT.
Panmure is forecasting $46m and $57m PBT. |
That's the second time it's had a run at (and bounced off) the 100dma. |
elsa - exactly. It was a total fantasy on some parts to think a financial institution would knowingly forgo such a profit. It would not be a surprise if they hadn't been sold already, at least in part. Whatever, it should not be a concern whatsoever as it is a known known. On the one hand it makes sense to take the options at the last minute because the cash can be deployed by the current owner, on the other hand the profit could also be deployed. There is also a cost to the shorting of shares which will inevitably have happened in full or in part too.
It looks like someone in the market took the block listing as the actual conversion. Potentially they might make the same mistake again when the time comes, neglecting that profit will already been guaranteed by the parties that make the ultimate transaction(s). |
hpcg16 May '24 - 16:38 - 2359 of 2371
Some people had the wild idea the warrants wouldn't be taken up. As I said when this was first raised it made no sense to me and all my calculations have been on fully diluted share counts.
Just heard back from the company. The warrants have been authorised but none have been issued thus far. The holders have 13 months to exercise (until end June 2025).
Warrants held by a Sharia compliant lender can be transferred/ sold to any party, and as such, can be exercised. |
From a technical perspective I think we have finally completed the 1st wave of an Elliot Wave pattern. We'll see a consolidation in this range and then take off again once comparative share prices look less extreme and possibly scary to new investors. |
Really this drop is/ was a total gift. Should have bought much more but was waiting to hear over the weekend from the mgmt… annoying. Edit (I was in touch on Friday)... |
elsa - if you look through the RNS history you will see multiple mentions of contract extensions. That isn't what you asked, but it is evidence of successful service. |
Not a firm figure BUT the options in the contracts are exercised at the original contract day rate- so clearly in an (expected) environment of rising rates, you'd imagine most customers will exercise those options. I'll dig out my notes later and see if I wrote anything on this when I met with Alex and Mansour a couple of weeks ago. |
Don't suppose that anyone on here has the faintest idea how much of their historical 'option' contracts actually turn into firm orders.
ATM $300m firm orders, $160m options. The company quotes the $460m figure as though all options will convert.
See below.
Positive outlook continues for 2024; backlog reached a high of US$459m = c. 3x 2023A revenue (ensuring clear visibility on revenues through the next three years).
Clearly if they do all convert and rates continue to firm then net debt should be under $100m within 3 those years. This then becomes a materially more attractive risk adjusted investment. |
I'm back in Nice entry |
Yes - bit of downward pressure as warrant holders cash in. They are probably delighted with where the price has got to, so makes full sense to cash in. Nothing fundamental has changed in my view- just topping up quietly at these levels. If you believe in the story this is merely a good chance to follow that conviction further! |
The overhanging shares from the exercised warrants seems to be depressing the share price for the moment. |
Thanks. Stockpoedia says $39 million but guessing badly out of date.
So 47/1153 = approx 3.22p (converted from $). Higher than I had thought.
Put it on a miserable 7 x PAT and you get 22.5p. That should be an absolute minimum.... |
Having dropped through the 50dma, I suspect it has started flashing-up on momentum-trading sites.
The story appears the same - especially given Monday's RNS. |
Zeus have PAT of $47mm for this year rising to $54.8mm next year. |
Converting warrants is one thing but selling them is something else.
Seems this has thrown up a great buying opp...all about timing. |
Some people had the wild idea the warrants wouldn't be taken up. As I said when this was first raised it made no sense to me and all my calculations have been on fully diluted share counts. The warrants are under a 14% dilution, for which the company gets $7.88mn. Traditionally a warrant holder would short their warrants whilst they were somewhat in the money. I would rather presume this has been going on for a while, and certainly once the shares were north of 10p. Circa 45mn shares are traded per month. |
Does anyone have the most recent profit forecasts for this year.
Last year was $42m PAT.
This year. I see $39m, Positives v 2023: Higher day rates (and utilisation rates?) and lower interest charges as debt falls. Negative: 9% UAE tax.
Surprised they net out with a fall in profits. Any ideas? Thanks |
Sharks out there licking their lips |
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