bbg2 - When they released 1H results,management did state they would update 2025 guidance towards the end of the year.So this disclosure is simply that
On equity issuance,buying new vessels at the expense of dividends is debatable.Should they opt to buy vessels,there is enough internal equity/cash generation and debt capacity to invest $75-100m |
https://www.research-tree.com/media/audio-note-gulf-marine-services-guidance-upgrade-23-12-2024/id/23294 |
Thanks for that carcosa |
 For any relatively newly interested investors, the phrase "in specie" indicates that the dividend will be paid in the form of assets (in this case, GMS shares) rather than cash. An in specie dividend allows Seafox ( a competitor to GMS) to pass on its GMS shares directly to its shareholders without selling them for cash first.
This action reduces Seafox's direct ownership in GMS by the distributed amount.
Seafox's shareholders will become direct shareholders in GMS to the extent of the distribution. Many of these new shareholders will prefer to sell their holdings. Hence the depressed share price.
Background: Following a period of shareholder acronymous activism, commencing in 2019, Seafox became the Company's largest shareholder. These changes led to the financial restructuring of the Company.
In September 2024 Seafox started to exit their holdings, not by selling shares but effectively giving the shares to Seafox shareholders (the in-specie dividend).
At it's height Seafox had 29.3% shareholding in GMS. Now that is closer to 5% to be confirmed with a TR1 this week, perhaps. At this rate it will not be too long before Seafox has divested all of its shares however it may take a few months before the individual shareholders have finished selling the bulk of their holdings.
As Premium Beeks says in the prior post, for those taking a medium to long term view the coming weeks may be a good time for retail investors to acumulate shares in GMS |
Unfortunately it's a patience game. If you hold, ride it out and await the expected hockey stick share price once selling abates. If you don't hold, I agree it's probably worth waiting it out.It's not a bad spot to be picking up shares though, for anyone wanting to take a longer term position. I doubt anyone will regret buying under 20p come this time next year. |
Definitely some buying interest at 15p. |
Yeh have to agree! Not for orphans and old biddies |
It's a dividend to Seafox holders, odds are they'll continue to sell. Share price here likely to remain under pressure for some time yet. |
news:The company now anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be at the upper end of previous guidance of USD 98-100 million for 2024.For 2025, GMS expects adjusted EBITDA to reach USD 100-108 million, an increase from the previously forecasted 2025 EBITDA guidance of USD 92-100 million.However, doing the maths, a 1-2% guidance increase for FY24 and an 8% increase for FY25 at the mid-point of the ranges. This is hardly material enough for a separate RNS, and it seems unlikely their broker would have forced them to issue this update. This gives the impression that management are desperate to stop their share price from falling. It may simply be options exercise driving the behaviour, although you have to wonder if they may have other reasons. For example, wanting to start growing the fleet again, which may require equity issuance. |
Interesting to hear Paul Scott's view on this on vox markets 31.10 in
Never heard him so bullish on a stock |
Just look at the downward spiral of the share price and constant dumping of the shares. You're welcome |
Where can I read the statement ? Thanks |
Going down, down, down, down. Next stop 12p. |
Thats a silly statement from Hasan-all transferred shares so far seem to have been sold,with the exception of Imperial |
They will be looking at placing the block IMO to remove the overhang.Greenwood capital partners most likely assisting |
i think that's a great point HPCG. This can be seen literally as just a liquidity exercise for Seafox! Nothing more, nothing less |
I understand the wariness looking at selling, but this is literally what creates multi-baggers in recovery stocks. You may be a strong adherent to efficient markets but there is overwhelming evidence against IMO.A reason why Seafox shareholders may want to sell GMS paper is because they can't sell Seafox shares, or at least are reliant on private markets cooperating. |
From Hassan, Seafox: "Hi we are not selling shares. We are just making distribution in kind as the share price doesn’t reflect anywhere near fair value" |
I am working on clarification for what this means in terms of Seafox full plans and how much this would leave them if it was an ADDITIONAL to the 150m distributed as per 4th September. I have dropped Alex a line and will speak to Hassan, Chairman of Seafox, later should that be necessary.
My take is that if it's an extra sale, it's just more cheap shares to hoover up AND, if the price stays low, it means quicker buyers to clean out this stake. what's really needed is the brokers (PanLib and Zeus) I believe, to step up and place a block, which is really what they are paid for! |
It makes you wonder what they know if GMS has such a positive outlook. |
SF shareholders clearly to me anyway are asking for this and intent on selling GMS. Again wonder why so many sellers for GMS considering. |
OK technically fair enough, but they knew at the time otherwise why even put that "get out sentence" in, given it contradicts the end part about being so positive on the outlook.
It's a kick in the teeth and am expecting full exit now |
zho,
Yeah, true, but they referenced Sep 4th in the latest RNS - so it seems likely the two are simply to be added together.
jsg123,
Not sure why you think they lied.
Occam's Razor suggests the circumstances simply changed and/or 'short-term' (a subjective term) doesn't go beyond a 3 month window in time.
"Whilst acknowledging that circumstances can change, Seafox has confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company." |
>>Assuming it's a simple 9.69% ...>>
Pedantry, but the last TR1 I can see before today was on 11th November, with Seafox reducing from 12.92% to 10.42%.
Re accusation of lying, Seafox said that it had "confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals [beyond a targeted 9.7%] in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company".
That was on 4th September, so I guess it hinges on your definition of short-term. |
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