Just look at the downward spiral of the share price and constant dumping of the shares. You're welcome |
Where can I read the statement ? Thanks |
Going down, down, down, down. Next stop 12p. |
Thats a silly statement from Hasan-all transferred shares so far seem to have been sold,with the exception of Imperial |
They will be looking at placing the block IMO to remove the overhang.Greenwood capital partners most likely assisting |
i think that's a great point HPCG. This can be seen literally as just a liquidity exercise for Seafox! Nothing more, nothing less |
I understand the wariness looking at selling, but this is literally what creates multi-baggers in recovery stocks. You may be a strong adherent to efficient markets but there is overwhelming evidence against IMO.A reason why Seafox shareholders may want to sell GMS paper is because they can't sell Seafox shares, or at least are reliant on private markets cooperating. |
From Hassan, Seafox: "Hi we are not selling shares. We are just making distribution in kind as the share price doesn’t reflect anywhere near fair value" |
I am working on clarification for what this means in terms of Seafox full plans and how much this would leave them if it was an ADDITIONAL to the 150m distributed as per 4th September. I have dropped Alex a line and will speak to Hassan, Chairman of Seafox, later should that be necessary.
My take is that if it's an extra sale, it's just more cheap shares to hoover up AND, if the price stays low, it means quicker buyers to clean out this stake. what's really needed is the brokers (PanLib and Zeus) I believe, to step up and place a block, which is really what they are paid for! |
It makes you wonder what they know if GMS has such a positive outlook. |
SF shareholders clearly to me anyway are asking for this and intent on selling GMS. Again wonder why so many sellers for GMS considering. |
OK technically fair enough, but they knew at the time otherwise why even put that "get out sentence" in, given it contradicts the end part about being so positive on the outlook.
It's a kick in the teeth and am expecting full exit now |
zho,
Yeah, true, but they referenced Sep 4th in the latest RNS - so it seems likely the two are simply to be added together.
jsg123,
Not sure why you think they lied.
Occam's Razor suggests the circumstances simply changed and/or 'short-term' (a subjective term) doesn't go beyond a 3 month window in time.
"Whilst acknowledging that circumstances can change, Seafox has confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company." |
>>Assuming it's a simple 9.69% ...>>
Pedantry, but the last TR1 I can see before today was on 11th November, with Seafox reducing from 12.92% to 10.42%.
Re accusation of lying, Seafox said that it had "confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals [beyond a targeted 9.7%] in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company".
That was on 4th September, so I guess it hinges on your definition of short-term. |
So they lied or fully intended to go well below 9.4 %.
Despite all the supposedly excellent updates, broker analysis, something doesn't feel right.
It makes you wonder if they're totally exiting, and why at this price if they have such belief in the company. |
Could be that some of the beneficiaries took fright at the decline from the Springtime peak such that they're rushing for the exit.
If Seafox are below 45 million shares after this latest distribution, the implied and actual (before and after any subsequent in specie dividend(s)) overhang is much diminished. |
Assuming it's a simple 9.69% - 5.4% then the latest in specie dividend would take Seafox down to 4.29%.
September 4th:
(i) distribute 150 million of the shares that it owns in the Company pro-rata in the form of an in specie dividend to Seafox's shareholders, which include prominent family offices, such distribution to take place on or after the 15th of September 2024; and
(ii) retain (directly and through its subsidiaries) the remaining 103,686,385 shares in GMS (representing a 9.69% equity interest in the Company). Whilst acknowledging that circumstances can change, Seafox has confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company. |
My experience is these overhangs can drag on for months or even years, so don't see the need to get involved until it's cleared. Of course always the possibility that GMS is taken out at a big premium to current share price and better to stay invested. On balance though I think better to wait on the sidelines. |
Yeah this overhang is going to take a while to clear:
"Following the announcement on 4 September 2024, the Company has been notified by Seafox International Limited ('Seafox') that it intends to distribute a further 58.8 million GMS shares (representing 5.4% of the Company's issued share capital) pro-rata to the shareholders in Seafox in the form of an in specie dividend, and that the distributions will take place on or after the 18th December 2024"
All imo
DYOR |
Master Investor's Mark Watson-Williams has just sent out an email covering GMS, most of which is behind a paywall - here's the intro:
"Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) – Shares are significantly undervalued
Chairman Mansour Al Alami stated that:
"Strong demand for our vessels continues to drive solid results.
Both forecasted utilisation rates and contracted daily charter rates will enable us to achieve the above guidance."
Yesterday the UAE-based provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector, Gulf Marine Systems, upped its guidance to the market for 2024 and 2025.
It stated that the company now anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be at the upper end of previous guidance of $98-100m for 2024.
For 2025, it expects its adjusted EBITDA to reach $100-108m, an increase from the previously forecasted 2025 EBITDA guidance of $92-100m..." |
Was really referring to the o & g sector generally. |
GMS seems to be defying the fortunes of others in the sector.
Which direct competitors? |
What worries me is if this is how the market reacts when things are good, how will it react when things take a downturn, because given the cyclical nature of the business, GMS seems to be defying the fortunes of others in the sector (operational fortunes not share price fortunes that is) |
Gulf Marine Services - Director/PDMR Shareholding #GMS https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/5bd0ec05-f28d-4697-9f8e-786ba3b66a44 #voxmarkets undefined |
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