GMS seems to be defying the fortunes of others in the sector.
Which direct competitors? |
What worries me is if this is how the market reacts when things are good, how will it react when things take a downturn, because given the cyclical nature of the business, GMS seems to be defying the fortunes of others in the sector (operational fortunes not share price fortunes that is) |
Gulf Marine Services - Director/PDMR Shareholding #GMS https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/5bd0ec05-f28d-4697-9f8e-786ba3b66a44 #voxmarkets undefined |
Potential investors looking back can see they are buying essentially at last years prices. Those that might feel they missed the self propelled accommodation jackup can see they have not lost out at all but have saved almost a year of dead money. |
I always wonder whether these "commenters" move the needle? I may be wrong but gut feeling is he isn't exactly putting in 6-7 figures so it might be overstated somewhat these type of people's influence? That being said, I'm biased as an institutional background AND anyone talking about it in a good light is an positive thing |
Yes agreed and I am adding here.
I am sure Paul Scott will be covering these. He is a big fan at 15p |
All very reasonable points. And whilst the share price reaction has been a little muted, a good volume has gone through already today. Hopefully that means that even if this good news doesn't translate into a short term bounce, in the long run clearing out the overhang is still a big positive from this recent run of good news |
 its flows / supply demand for the share. Fortunately the company will be able to fix that itself come Q3.
Tangentially I think theree might be a few burning fingers in a similar space that could mean money leaving oil services in the very broadest sense. Very much on my watch list are the tankers, specifically products, but also crude carriers. Scorpio (STNG) has almost halved off its highs, back to where it was in July 23, International Seaways (INSW) which carries products and crude is similar, DHT, much flatter and more range bound as it was never as leveraged.
These are not the same, ahem boat, by any means. Rates have declined and so have profit forecasts (not so for GMS) and a few months ago brokers were all strong sellers (not so for GMS), though they have rebounded recently to buys or strong buys. The sector runs modest gearing now, and pays out large covered dividends. They are all on my watch list and I'm just waiting just waiting for a break in momentum and for forecasts to stabilise. |
Bought in here this morning for the first time after the shares dipped. Looks like the overhang is lifting now?
Panmure Liberum have reiterated their Buy and 30p target price.
They summarise:
"Upgraded guidance for 2024 & 2025
GMS has issued revised Adj. EBITDA guidance for 2024 with it trading at the upper end of the previous guidance range of US$98m-100m and has increased its guidance for 2025 from US$92m-100m to US$100m–108m. Against this background the shares have declined 13% over the last month, yet 1) the last disclosed backlog stands at a record level of US$503m (in February it was US$373m), 2) deleveraging has accelerated in 2024, 3) new banking facilities enable options to expand the fleet and engage in share buybacks, 4) GMS has raised the potential of paying a dividend, and 5) new opportunities have emerged in European waters for Offshore Wind Farm maintenance. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p.
GMS continues to deliver
The company continues to perform well with revenue growth boosted by higher day rates. The significant reduction in net debt has materially reduced borrowing costs (US$31m in 2023 falling to an expected US$13m in 2026) and the recent re-finance gives the company scope to look at ways to expand the fleet (i.e. leasing). Demand for SESVs continues to be strong as evidenced by the rise in the company backlog which represents c3x FY25E revenues and indicates that the company’s financial performance looks secure in the coming years.
Vessel demand remains strong
Oil & Gas activity levels in the core MENA region remain high (GMS has no exposure to the UK economy), despite crude prices faltering as demand concerns continue to weigh on markets. We see the recent postponement of OPEC+ production increases having no negative impact on GMS given the high level of backlog with their vessels being utilised for (already) committed work programmes. In the event that OPEC+ does increase production, we see this as a positive with the increased activity driving demand higher." |
Muted reaction.
Could almost go negative on a forecast beat.
So this looks like the Seafox overhang continuing to play out in the market. You wouldn't expect this type of reaction when the price has already trended down like that.
Are we waiting for some whoppers to hit?
Show us the whoppers.
On the watchlist it goes.
All imo
DYOR |
They should rename themselves Tesla Marine Services and wax airily about their plans for a fleet of AI-enabled roboships.
It’s the only way to attract investor interest currently. |
Been in touch. Still expected by YE. |
I wonder if the lack of refinancing update is worrying the market. They said it would be wrapped up by year end but there hasn’t been confirmation. |
Beers, makes you wonder why it is ! |
Yep, looks like another $75-80 million free cash available, to reduce the debt or for other means, is baked into 2025.
That’s around 20% of the enterprise value - ridiculous. |
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/gulf-marine-services--gms/update-to-2024-and-2025-ebitda-guidance/8614890 |
It just cannot stay down here for much longer |
You are, for the most part, conversing with people here 2 years before Paul Scott mentioned it. The figures released by the company tell their own story. I am very surprised at the share price today, but I don't control any others in the market. I've been buying more on occasion in this period, though without increasing the proportion of my portfolio allocation. The influence of commentators here and elsewhere in the PI sphere is significantly overstated and diminishing all the time as the active investor base shrinks. Not only that but PS writes on Stockopedia, a product founded on the basis of factor investing. People that work off of tips have at best 5 figure portfolios and are utterly insignificant outside of micro cap stocks.
Specifically on the subject of factors, even the interims are well out of date, with net debt having decreased from $238.5mn end H1 to $221mn end Q3 with similar to come this Q. Come the FY report those numbers will be clean(er) with just the distortion from the fair value adjustment of warrants, assuming no more are converted this year distracting from the trading numbers. Probably, as that depends on where the share price ends up on the last trading day of the year.
Fed is likely to cut next week, but perhaps not at all in 2025. That's a modest cut to the interest bill in addtion to the lower interest rates on refinancing. Dollar is strong and as I have a sterling basis that adds to the attraction. |
I bet you are. Facts, GMS has been one of Paul Scott’s favourite stocks all year and each time he’s been talking it up and not once has he given it less than the top rating of ‘Green’ on Socko. He ramps the shares he owns, Plexus Holdings is another disaster of his and people still worship him don’t they |
Not at all, give me the facts. Price went down is that your fact? |
Clearly a member of the PS fan club. Facts speak for themselves |
Grow up you baby |
Another one of Paul Scott’s disastrous stock ramps |
I agree they are unlikely to become debt free as a level of gearing is appropriate, but for illustration's sake they could pay off the debt and run at 35%+ FCF yield with a PE of 4 (taking into account depreciation / replacement assets). Crazy cheap. |
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