 Well there ought to be another short term 100% run because this should be trading at NAV given the returns this is making on NAV. These are the catalysts:
* Closing of the refinancing.
* Guidance on 2025 and possibly 2026
* FY 2024 trading update
* FY results
* share holder returns begin
These should be roughly in sequence. My understanding is the warrants expire with the refinancing but I guess until I see that happen I'm in some doubt. The refi is within the next few weeks.
In 2024 the trading update was 13 Jan. Guidance will probably be either on the refinancing or the trading update, rather than its own announcement.
In 2024 finals were 24 April. Once they are published the data in the likes of stockopedia gets updated and those historical accounting markers get reset. At the moment, for example, the current ratio looks very bad as the entire debt is short term as it all expires June 2025.
Buybacks (and or dividends) can start anytime after the warrants have expired as they are entitled to be pro-rata made whole by any return. Management has been saying come the second half of 2025.
So these are all in about the next 7 months, which I think is short order. |
Agree, no reason to sell this. Syria isnt an issue for GMS. Any buyer at 18+ needs faith and to think long term. The debt reduction and should really have an impact on the share price hopefully the long term debt ratio can stay low and look more attractive to future buyers. Have to think long term and not get caught up in wishing for another 100% short term run like we have seen in the past with this. Also think there could be some selling to free up funds for xmas? Thats what im hoping anyway lol. Again the day will come. Dont sell, INVESTEVERYTHING. |
No one knows why the share price is weak, only the sellers. If you look hard for a geopolitical reason you won't find one. If you look at the backlog you won't find a reason. If you look at financial data you won't find a reason. There is a rational reason for one seller, which is warrant owners. Buyers being put off need to have more faith in their own process. |
Any views on the current weakness? Possibly the action in Syria spooking PIs? GMS operates in the Persian Gulf so unless Iran and Saudi fall out I can’t see them being disrupted. Anyone have a more informed view on this? |
It will have its day. Bit of patience. I re bought today. It's cheap at this level I think |
Totally agree, never known a stock so consistently release positive after positive news and the downward trend continues.
Only logical explanation must be the outstanding warrants and possible conclusion of the seafox distributions.
Otherwise it's just illogical. |
What a frustrating stock this has become!
Every little heart-lifting rise gets knocked down again like playing Whack-a-mole.
Nevertheless, the fundamentals are good and seem to keep improving.
I'm guessing most on here have zero interest in technical analysis, but if the down-trend can finally grind to a halt about now and the stock grudgingly start to rise again, however slowly, there's a possibility of a higher low appearing on the chart.
That would be good and may signal the beginning of better price-action ahead. Lots of ifs though, so nobody should hold their breath! |
12th September:
Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled and self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector, is pleased to announce the award of a new long-term contract for one of its vessels in the GCC. The contract spans a total of five years, inclusive of optional extensions, and contributes to further improvement in fleetwide average day rates. This contract takes our backlog to USD 464 million.
30th June 2024 (and 2023):
Secured backlog was US$ 426.8 million on 30 June 2024 (30 June 2023: US$ 301.4 million), which reflects the additional contract awards announced over the last 12 months, offset by the revenue recognised. |
>>Broker confirms there has been no downgrade at all. It was always 2.9c.>>
Apologies if I I've got that wrong - the numbers I quoted come from Stockopedia.
I looked them up this morning having read Paul Scott's comment that broker forecasts had reduced "quite a bit recently". |
Yes, I guesstimated the newly announced contract would total approx $23m. Given the 54 day drain on the backlog and the net -$2m off that backlog.
Over 18 months, that's around $15-16m per year - so not far off 10% of annual turnover - for one small-class vessel. (this assumes this contract is the only addition to the backlog since 10th October).
"Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector, is pleased to announce the award of a new contract for one of its small-class vessels in the GCC region. The contract spans a total of 18 months, including optional extensions." |
zho3 Dec '24 - 09:17 - 2638 of 2645
He points out that broker forecasts have been cut back recently, which surprised me.
Stockopedia currently quote a consensus of 2.9c for 2024 (down from 3.8c on 3/8/24) and 4.0c for 2025 (down from 4.7c).
Broker confirms there has been no downgrade at all. It was always 2.9c. |
If they are turning over approx $14 million a month then between you would have expected the backlog to drop by nearly $28 million as the existing contracts are serviced.
Worrying about a $2 million drop in the backlog is worrying in itself.
The business is in great shape. |
There were 54 days between October 10th and December 3rd.
In those 54 days, the backlog, absent any new additions, would fall by the sum total of the contracted day rates x 54.
The new contract would add to that backlog.
Net effect is a drop of 2 million.
Contracts being lumpy, it's likely that the backlog rises and falls naturally. |
would it not just be this current contract is smaller than one that say has just been completed and so the backlog has gone down for that reason? Doesn't seem like an issue to me. |
I noticed that too (reduced backlog) and beginning to wonder who is releasing these rns and what for. |
10th October:
The current backlog totals USD 505 million, representing 3.3x 2023 revenue and a c.18% increase over that announced at the half year end on 30th June 2024. The strength of market demand is allowing the Company to meet its deleveraging goal quicker than anticipated.
3rd December:
"We are delighted to see continuous demand for all our vessels in a highly competitive market. Maintaining high utilization is key for us to continue to deliver on our objectives. Our backlog now stands at USD 503 million." |
The price targets have nudged up though from what I can see - around 35p from 32p a few months ago. |
Well that 2.9 consensus has translated into a $60m+ operational reduction in net debt. If that can carry on next year - or even improve - the share price should take care of itself. ATB |
There's a good write up from Paul Scott on his Substack page.
He points out that broker forecasts have been cut back recently, which surprised me.
Stockopedia currently quote a consensus of 2.9c for 2024 (down from 3.8c on 3/8/24) and 4.0c for 2025 (down from 4.7c). |
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/gulf-marine-services--gms/contract/8585894 |
Looking to add ! Deleveraging story developing |
Is this background warrant sellers? |
The drillers have finally disposed of the excess capacity they built in the early 2000s. It has only taken 16 years and 3 bankruptcies each! Drilling prices were artificially low for a very long time, to the benefit of expensive deep and ultra deep fields versus the cheap shallow fields in the Persian Gulf. |
Some background on the state of the market for offshore oil rigs at
"Since the start of 2022, the average day rate for floating oil rigs has risen by more than 40 per cent according to analysts tracking the industry at Rystad, an energy consultancy. Since renting a rig accounts for between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of the cost of developing an oilfield, the rise in prices, combined with rig availability, has implications for how much oil is going to come on to the market over the next few years." |
It's just typical churn.
I'm holding for long term upside.
I'm currently in the line of work and we're very busy.
P. |
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