I don't think anyone apart from those eager to sell really knows. IMO this should be closer to 28p based on fundamentals. I would say the absorption of the Seafox distribution has exhausted buyers for now. I imagine back ground short selling of shares by warrant holders continues they I don't have any direct evidence for that, but I would be doing that in their situation. Related to that some potential investors may be holding off for what they anticipate could be more availability from warrants.
In terms of oil, the cycle has really gone out of the business. The US onshore dynamic means that there has been no splurge on expensive long lead offshore fields so supply and demand are relatively well balanced. I do expect KSA to regain some market share which will cap prices, but not destabilise them. |
Why this retreat? Is it in line with the sector? Oil-related? |
Yes, there is all the normal stuff.
Investors most want to see the warrants out of the way I think. When I read back through the public documentation on those they are compensated pro-rata for either a dividend or a buy back, so if I have expressed in the past preference for a dividend ahead of buy backs that was nonsense. So investors will be happy to hear about the returns policy if that makes an appearance this side of the FY results. |
And possibly updated 25 guidance in the next couple of weeks/ month or so I believe... |
In itsef it isn't price moving news, it is just a message of comfort to shareholders that demand remains and rates are going up. We await the closing of the refinance as the next substantive change. |
I liked the demand for all vessels"We are delighted to have secured this contract at an improved day rates for one of our small-class vessels. This confirms the continuous demand for all the vessel classes we operate." |
They seem bored of announcing the same stuff over and over! |
Low key new contract announcement today and muted reaction .... |
HPCG
Agreed re. reference to June 25 but this is a backstop date. If the new facilities are put in place prior to year-end, which the Board say they expect, then the warrants must be issued and exercised before or on the date of the new facilities (by logic the expiry of the existing facility).
I therefore expect warrants to be issued and exercised in Nov/Dec for some 83,5m shares. Whether those shares are sold or not remains to be seen. If some are not exercised for "religious" reasons, then thats a bonus but I am not counting on it.
As you have pointed out previously, there do seem to be sellers appearing every time we get into the 19-20p zone but these are not the "warrrant-holder" sellers. That`s still to come, is my read. |
Jsg123 - Whilst we await the budget there will still be people selling ahead. Note the warrants expire on refinance so I expect the banks in the refinance, some of whom have warrants, will want to shift them all prior to then. |
I'm in no hurry to sell and my thinking is even at 18 that should provide a decent yield when capital returns start.
But at the same time it's hugely frustrating and almost enticing people to just trade it. |
Depends how much you are looking to make. It's already gone from mid 14p to 20p in a very short period. What are you wanting? |
So basically any fundamentals are going to be largely ignored until June 25. |
They are being sold in the foreground as well!I wouldn't believe buy/sell indicators on advfn. |
So do you think they're being sold in the background?
Visible volume says buys almost 2 x sells. |
It's nothing to do with fundamentals. The announce tells you exactly what the lid on the share price is - 50 odd million of 5p warrants still to flog.Take it as a pause where you can accumulate at will until the overhang clears. |
Even so, 3 x guidance upgrades, broker upgrade, debt reducing, finance agreed, shareholder returns policy initiated, and yet here we are. |
There is still going to be a small SF distribution left to churn out |
I don't know why they even bother upping guidance, this market never rewards them, pretty much every RNS is initially acknowledged and then falls away.
If this was a ftse 250 company upping guidance, it would hold its rise despite any selling. |
Forward fundamentals on this looking very cheap.
Market cap is gonna be higher than the reducing debt soon enough.
Very encouraging update. |
I think they should have made the announcement after budget day personally. We know the gist anyway, but right now it will be sold into. |
Pre budget Brucie bonus |
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