There's a good write up from Paul Scott on his Substack page.
He points out that broker forecasts have been cut back recently, which surprised me.
Stockopedia currently quote a consensus of 2.9c for 2024 (down from 3.8c on 3/8/24) and 4.0c for 2025 (down from 4.7c). |
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/gulf-marine-services--gms/contract/8585894 |
Looking to add ! Deleveraging story developing |
Is this background warrant sellers? |
The drillers have finally disposed of the excess capacity they built in the early 2000s. It has only taken 16 years and 3 bankruptcies each! Drilling prices were artificially low for a very long time, to the benefit of expensive deep and ultra deep fields versus the cheap shallow fields in the Persian Gulf. |
Some background on the state of the market for offshore oil rigs at
"Since the start of 2022, the average day rate for floating oil rigs has risen by more than 40 per cent according to analysts tracking the industry at Rystad, an energy consultancy. Since renting a rig accounts for between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of the cost of developing an oilfield, the rise in prices, combined with rig availability, has implications for how much oil is going to come on to the market over the next few years." |
It's just typical churn.
I'm holding for long term upside.
I'm currently in the line of work and we're very busy.
P. |
I don't think anyone apart from those eager to sell really knows. IMO this should be closer to 28p based on fundamentals. I would say the absorption of the Seafox distribution has exhausted buyers for now. I imagine back ground short selling of shares by warrant holders continues they I don't have any direct evidence for that, but I would be doing that in their situation. Related to that some potential investors may be holding off for what they anticipate could be more availability from warrants.
In terms of oil, the cycle has really gone out of the business. The US onshore dynamic means that there has been no splurge on expensive long lead offshore fields so supply and demand are relatively well balanced. I do expect KSA to regain some market share which will cap prices, but not destabilise them. |
Why this retreat? Is it in line with the sector? Oil-related? |
Yes, there is all the normal stuff.
Investors most want to see the warrants out of the way I think. When I read back through the public documentation on those they are compensated pro-rata for either a dividend or a buy back, so if I have expressed in the past preference for a dividend ahead of buy backs that was nonsense. So investors will be happy to hear about the returns policy if that makes an appearance this side of the FY results. |
And possibly updated 25 guidance in the next couple of weeks/ month or so I believe... |
In itsef it isn't price moving news, it is just a message of comfort to shareholders that demand remains and rates are going up. We await the closing of the refinance as the next substantive change. |
I liked the demand for all vessels"We are delighted to have secured this contract at an improved day rates for one of our small-class vessels. This confirms the continuous demand for all the vessel classes we operate." |
They seem bored of announcing the same stuff over and over! |
Low key new contract announcement today and muted reaction .... |
HPCG
Agreed re. reference to June 25 but this is a backstop date. If the new facilities are put in place prior to year-end, which the Board say they expect, then the warrants must be issued and exercised before or on the date of the new facilities (by logic the expiry of the existing facility).
I therefore expect warrants to be issued and exercised in Nov/Dec for some 83,5m shares. Whether those shares are sold or not remains to be seen. If some are not exercised for "religious" reasons, then thats a bonus but I am not counting on it.
As you have pointed out previously, there do seem to be sellers appearing every time we get into the 19-20p zone but these are not the "warrrant-holder" sellers. That`s still to come, is my read. |
Jsg123 - Whilst we await the budget there will still be people selling ahead. Note the warrants expire on refinance so I expect the banks in the refinance, some of whom have warrants, will want to shift them all prior to then. |
I'm in no hurry to sell and my thinking is even at 18 that should provide a decent yield when capital returns start.
But at the same time it's hugely frustrating and almost enticing people to just trade it. |
Depends how much you are looking to make. It's already gone from mid 14p to 20p in a very short period. What are you wanting? |
So basically any fundamentals are going to be largely ignored until June 25. |
They are being sold in the foreground as well!I wouldn't believe buy/sell indicators on advfn. |
So do you think they're being sold in the background?
Visible volume says buys almost 2 x sells. |
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