ST has been tipping gms for quite a while. He is probably re-iterating. |
Can you just say who tipped it in IC? |
Tipped in IC |
Encouraging to see a UAE fund take on 40 million shares, only another 40 million to go. |
It may just be admin. eg Seafox instructed its custodian to distribute the shares to the custodian for each underlying holder. As those transactions complete the custodian reports a lower balance to Seafox and they, in turn, notify GMS. |
I don't really understand the distribution mechanism. All I can think is happening is they they are distributing in lots to everyone that are the size of the smallest holding in Seafox. To explain further assume the Seafox holdings are:
a 5%
b 10%
c 15%
d 15%
e 20%
f 35%
They would first distribute 5% on the GMS shares to be distributed to all parties:
Afterwhich:
a 0%
b 5%
c 10%
d 10%
e 15%
f 30%
The advantage of this way in terms of fairness is that all sellers have equal access to the market, even if they are partial sellers. And so on for the next tranche until the largest holder or holders get the final tranche.
I'm encouraged we are nearing the end of the distribution process, and to have a holding notification at last.
Picked up some more today at 5.15. I haven't done much in the 14s but with both the distribution of the Seafox holding and the budget approaching fast the time factor is less of an issue IMO. |
Yes - Seafox have transferred another block of shares as an in specie dividend, reducing from 18.4% to 14.2%.
If last week's action is a guide we'd expect a fair few of those to hit the market in the next couple of days. |
https://x.com/rckhlldd/status/1843301160242835870?s=46 |
Ok, cheers |
From what I have heard, some of the holders (those to which GMS shares have / are being / will be distributed to) are a mixture of UHNWI family offices, and even the Qatari Royal Family (that last one is interesting as QE is a big customer of GMS). This is consistent with GS being one of the houses selling the shares yesterday - despite never having played in a name this small. Makes sense that GS would look after money and affairs for some of these UHNW family office types, so that checks out. APPEARS (though I'm at risk of looking even more silly than usual) that the overhang in the short term has cleared a touch, and vols returning to something like normal. |
Stemis - I don't know what his holding is now but there were significant corporate events in at least 2009 and 2014 that would have diluted his stake. |
Cordia Group acquired Seafox in 2005.
Seafox then merged with (or was bought by) Millennium Offshore in 2014
Millennium Offshore is owned by HM MOS International:
"The Principal investors in HM MOS International Limited include, amongst others, a GCC Sovereign Wealth Fund, MENA Regional Family Offices and also MENA Regional High Net Worth Individuals." |
I though Cordia owned Seafox |
whites...
always nice to read a comment where an obviously calm investor lays out the simplicity to a thesis. at the end of the day, this is a company where the fundamentals are booming. investors are being given an extraordinary chance to top up at c.14p and a 50% discount to NAV (with leverage reducing quickly, that is a very conservative way to look at the discount!).
horrible to wake up and see yourself losing thousands. but this should be a situation where those with patience and nerves are rewarded handsomely. |
From todays TR1
"This is not a sale of GMS Shares by Seafox, it is transfer of shares as a part of the 150m GMS share Distribution to Seafox Shareholders which will take place over the next few weeks and as per 4th Sept RNS Number: 7900C."
Looks like the overhang will persist for the "next few weeks". Ive got some buy orders in at quite cheeky prices. Illiquidity often equals opportunity. |
 Im a buyer and supporter of GMS Gulf Marine Services for several reasons, especially considering recent selling activity by Seafox, via distribution, which presents a strategic opportunity for investors.
The offshore support vessel sector, providing critical services to the oil and gas, and renewable energy industries, is experiencing renewed growth due to rising energy demand and global energy transitions.
The ongoing selling by Seafox (By Distribution) a key shareholder, could be seen as a short-term negative. However, this presents a valuable opportunity for the market as shares transition from investors with little confidence (or strategic interest) in holding, to those who are bullish on GMS’s long-term potential. This transfer of shares is going to lead to a more committed shareholder base, driving stronger price support and stability.
With a leaner cost structure and improving industry fundamentals, GMS is positioned for growth, and the shift of shares into stronger hands sets the stage for enhanced investor focus and performance gains.
Never thought I would be presented with an opportunity to top up at these kind of levels. So happy to be adding. |
hpcg1 Oct '24 - 12:15 - 2527 of 2528.
Sure but the fact is that the shares are hitting the market immediately or so it seems hence the high volume the last 3 days.
The sooner they're out the better.
It doesn't mean GMS can't buy them in. Just say to their broker they'll buy everything at 15p or under and it's all dealt with.
Nb I've bought a lot today to add to my holding and will add as it goes lower.
Seriously half of NAV....(29p). |
xxx1 Oct '24 - 12:10 - 2525 of 2526
It's all about the bank covenants. As things stand I understand they will not move until the later part of 2025.
Bonkers. Buy back the shares now for a pittance (take Seafox out at 14p or whatever). Hugely accretive to earnings and doubtless therefore to their bonus pot. Surely they can see that!? The plus also for us poor shareholders we watch this rocket back to 20p. |
elsa7878 - Seafox isn't selling any shares. It is distributing its shares in GMS to its own shareholders until it gets down to a 10% holding. The availability in the market is one or more of those recipients selling. |
If it's now under 90 million shares. It's under £13 million. Surely there MUST be some institutions out there who must think it's a decent investment. Around here it is 50% of NAV! |
hcpg, yes there is a strong element of shiny new toys about increasing capacity. Management get more assets to play with, customers are enthusiastic and shareholders pay either by deferring dividends or cash calls or both plus borrowings.
So it is important to keep management on track. The maths is straighforwards and yes, they want to get the nett leverage ratio down to 1.5 before acting, but there is nothing magical about this figure, we pay ~8% on debt and buying in shares moves value strongly in favour of the remaining holders. Hence my suggestion for holders to contact the board and express their preferences and reasoning. |
I can't see how this isn't going lower until everything evens itself out |
90 million to go..... |
You can say that again.
It's no wonder it's falling like it is, buys are registering as sells. Mine just did. |
Thanks for that. This relentless selling is unnerving but the business is fundamentally sound so guess we just have to make it play out. |
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