Looks like the new contract is on excellent day rates from the stated backlogs for year end and 11th march contracts, all going very well and 3 years of high cashflow locked in ... |
Absolutely insane how cheap this is.
Upgraded guidance, new long term contract and debt down by $12.5 million since the end of June. I had modelled debt reducing by $5 million a month, looks like slightly more than that. |
Good news this AM and I think good company management to get a positive RNS out given weakness. "As for our guidance for 2025, we are in the process of revisiting it and shall share it with you in the next couple of months". This was the section which most excited me. Am meeting Mansour and Alex in a couple weeks time so will probe on this and see what their thoughts are..... |
Dire support |
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/small-caps-podcast-with-paul-scott/id1642339156?i=1000668723711Paul Scott holds Stock in GMS ! Gives it a green light |
50% only takes us back to where the share price was a few months ago. It should be trading at least at NAV, which in a year will be 34p or so (haven't redone my calculations since the latest numbers). |
Decent first half and pleased with seafox move. I continue to see c40-50% upside from these share price numbers over next 12 months imo |
I think Seafox is playing the long game with the remaining 10% (which I see as a positive). So much of the rest of the market is focused on the very short term, irrespective of the underlying value. |
CousinIT - The investor in Seafox necessarily have a long time horizon because they are directly invested in a small private company. I think it is an excellent mechanism and very obviously one agreeable to those investors. It is considerably better than Seafox working them out in the market. Of course some will make use of public liquidity but that is literally how a market works. These new direct shareholders now have even more of an incentive to spread the word.
Of course we can't divorce any share price action in the last month from the wider market and fears around the US economy. |
So much store placed in momentum these days to avoid sitting in cheap assets where the price isn't going anywhere.
Pre May there was positive momentum in spades; the Seafox placing killed that and the opposite trend has emerged. That is probably keeping a number of potential buyers on the sidelines. |
What is bizarre is that between May and now the only genuinely new information is the refinancing to complete hopefully at the start of November, which is just a positive. Even a September rate cut was consensus at the time.
I do understand warrant selling / shorting - that is a pure arbitrage. Warrants were, and are generally, a necessary part of the distress financing so we should expect those profits to be taken. For a conventional investor though growth plus a discount to NAV is pretty compelling. |
Equity prices so influenced by supply and demand.
Statement today suggests more supply as Seafox underlying holders may feed the market with stock once they receive it in specie.
This could set up a situation where, with the refinancing, some share buybacks could help mop that up at prices well below book value. It almost feels orchestrated by Seafox with their remaining 10% in mind. |
Yes - the tailwinds are valuation, operations and debt-dynamics.
The headwinds are unsophisticated (?) investors dumping stock without knowing/caring about the discount to fair value at which they do so.
Their loss is the gain of anyone buying at these levels. |
With interest rates about to go down interest costs will also be declining and de-leveraging will accelerate further. I bought more yesterday and I am buying more today. |
$40m paid off the debt in 8 months, with the pace seemingly quickening - which makes sense as cashflow rises and interest expense falls. |
13th May they stated:
net debt further decreased during the first quarter of the year to USD 256.4 million as of 31 March 2024, with a net leverage ratio of 2.96 times, in-line with its strategy.Net debt was USD 267.3 million at year end on 31 December 2023.
The Company is also pleased to report that it made an additional prepayment of USD 5.0 million towards its debt repayments in the last week, reducing net debt to USD 250.4 million.
August 1st they stated:
"As we have made an early settlement towards our debt last week, our current net debt is USD 234 million, down from USD 267.3 million as of December 31st, 2023.
September 4th they stated:
..as of 30 June 2024..a reduction in net bank debt to US$ 238.5 million.
Subsequent to the period end, the Group made further prepayments towards the bank borrowings of US$ 11.0 million. |
A lot to take in. Cash-flow statement is the key with the company throwing off $40 million plus in cash pre-interest payments. As the debt falls so this element reduces. Hard to find a company in such a sweet spot, throwing off so much cash and being valued so cheaply.
Seafood announcement is interesting. Divesting 60% of their shares to their shareholders with a commitment to retain the rest.
The company has been clear that there is a lot more institutional interest in the company now that the debt is manageable.
Hope they prioritise dividend / buybacks before expanding the fleet, though it is encouraging that they are sufficiently confident in the market outlook to consider investing in additional vessels. |
 So much news for me today - GMS is first though.
Firstly I must be thick or something, I didn't realise 34 million warrants had been converted. Ultimately I am sure they all will be. It diddles with profit numbers but who cares at this stage.
Secondly, outside of the H1 results is the excellent news that Seafox are distributing their share holding in specie to their investors. I am sure that will mean some selling pressure in the short term, but it takes an axe to that overhang entirely. As I have said before, all shares are for sale at all times.
It was actually good to see the lower utilisation rate with yard visits. These are an essential part of the ongoing business operationally and legally.
The forward look:
Contract awards announced in H1 2024 have a combined total charter period of 14.3 years (H1 2023: 2.4 years) which underscores the ongoing strength in demand for our vessels across the various markets in which we operate. The Group is currently working on potential new contracts to further improve the inventory and address the backlog.
So much security on the revenue front. |
Just guessing really! They said 4 to 5 weeks on lastUpdate |
How do you know tomorrow? |
Results tomorrow high volume today |
Makes sense. |
Good day today, up on decent volume.
In the RNS on 1st August they indicated that HY Results would be announced within 4-5 weeks. I don`t think they would give less than 5 days notice so I am assuming they will be announcing next week. |
https://x.com/rckhlldd/status/1826961969968009231?s=46 |
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