Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[landover bricks oil] 26/1/2023 13:51

Thought I'd look back in. Another dividend would suit me.

[spark plug] 26/1/2023 13:34

So if we were paid in full with arrears at 31 st Jan we would have a bank balance of approx $265.7m?
Some great posts this last few days - thanks all

[johnbuysghost] 26/1/2023 13:34

One more divi will be the last imo.

[bumkin] 26/1/2023 12:51

UPDATE FOLLOWING CASH BALANCE FROM THE GKP OPERATIONAL UPDATE POSTED ON 19/12/22
(But end balance virtually the same as previous post)

From the 16/12/22 to the end of January 2023 (assuming no more payments between now and next Tuesday) the following has happened:
Cash Balance as at 16/12/22 = $116.9m
(From GKP’s Operational, Corporation and AGM Update, declared on 19/12/2022…oh and BANG_GONE).

Payment made 26/01/2023 = £38.8m (August)
Capex from 16/12/22 to end Jan = $27.3 (approx., 6.5 weeks at £4.2m per week)

Therefore Cash Balance at the end of January = $128.4. Compared with my previous post (665161) of $129.4m – pretty damn close).

This compares to a Cash Balance as at 16/12/21 = $211m (Inc. Sept. 2021 sales that were paid in Jan 22 but should have been paid in Dec 21)

So we are $81.6m down on the end of 2021 (but with $137.3 due for Sept to Dec, see estimate below). $140m worth of Dividends were declared in the first three months of 2022, therefore, there still appears to be scope for some kind of dividend over the next few months particularly with further payments due.

Estimated payments for September to December based on the Brent Oil price for those months.

Month due Estimated Amount
September $34.7m
October $36.1m
November $35.3m
December $31.2m

Total $137.3m

[bumkin] 26/1/2023 12:33

I missed that, thank you, I'll update my details.

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 12:30

Robust, debt-free balance sheet, with a cash balance of $116.9 million at 16 December 2022

[bumkin] 26/1/2023 12:26

Cash 116m Dec 19, where did you get that from so I can update my figures?

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 12:21

Cash 116 m Dec 19.Plus 38 m yesterday say 154mLess opex.Say 140/145m less whatever capex they spent in past 6 weeks..They will bill Jan too in a few days , so I reckon 180m ish billed by next Wednesday........It's a lot of proforma cash

[bumkin] 26/1/2023 12:11

Here is an estimate on what our cash balance should be as at 31/01/2023, based on what we currently know.

Cash Balance as at 23/06/22 = $247m
Payments for 23/06/22 to 31/08/22 = $82m
Capex for 23/06/22 to 31/08/22 (10 weeks) = $42m
Dividends paid between 23/06/22 to 31/08/22 = $75
Bonds paid between 23/06/22 to 31/08/22 = $100

Therefore, Cash Balance as at 31/08/22 = $112m

From the 01/09/22 to the end of January 2023 (assuming no more payments between now and next Tuesday) the following has happened:

Dividend paid on 07/10/2022 = $25m
Payment made 18/10/22 = $50.7m (for June)
Payment made 11/11/22 = $45.3m (for July)
Payment made 26/01/2023 = £38.8m For August)
Capex from 01/09/22 to end Jan = $92.4 (approx., 22 weeks at £4.2m per week)

Therefore Cash Balance at the end of January = $129.4m
This compares to a Cash Balance as at 16/12/21 = $211m (Inc. Sept. 2021 sales that were paid in Jan 22 but should have been paid in Dec 21)

So we are $81.6m down on the end of 2021 (but with $137.3 due for Sept to Dec, see estimate below). $140m worth of Dividends were declared in the first three months of 2022, therefore, there still appears to be scope for some kind of dividend over the next few months particularly with further payments due.

Estimated payments for September to December based on the Brent Oil price for those months.

Month due Estimated Amount
September $34.7m
October $36.1m
November $35.3m
December $31.2m

Total $137.3m

[arcadian] 26/1/2023 12:08

John

It doesn`t matter (other than a bidding war might take place with two or more)What is more important is that any agreement between the Kurds and Baghdad makes their purchase worth while.

[shortsqueezer] 26/1/2023 11:36

Ah ok mate. Good point. Thanks

[johnbuysghost] 26/1/2023 11:26

The US and China both want GKP.

Who will win???

[bumkin] 26/1/2023 10:47

This August payment of $38.8m is 14.3% less than the July payment of $45.3m.

Compared this with the average Monthly Brent price for the same months which was 10.3% down.
(Aug. Ave. $100.45, Jul. Ave. $111.93 so reduction of 10.3%).

It would be nice if the payment percentage decrease was less than the decrease in the Brent price, which would indicate an increase in production, so more revenue and more dividends in the future.

However, I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing, just indicates that GKP are not spending vastly to increase production, so they must be expecting a takeover in the near future (so leaving the development of the field to the new, bigger company). This would also have the near term benefit of more cash in the bank so we all know what that means....MORE DIVIDENDS.

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 10:28

Ss btw SHAMARAN normally get 2 payments a month for their split prodn, so might not be as bad as you think

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 10:10

I think they would have had to announce such a change if it had been agreed..Genel so far haven't agreed and said last week they would have announced it if they had.

[ozzmosiz] 26/1/2023 10:10

Brent crude was 12% cheaper in August compared to July, the difference doesn't compare but maybe they pumped a bit less oil?

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 10:08

Edit lower in August to July

[shortsqueezer] 26/1/2023 10:08

My guess is new pricing. Look at Shamaran. Way below previous payments

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 10:07

Brent was over "10% less in July than August, and because of the fact that GKP is leveraged to Brent hence the smaller payment.It was abou 750thou less than I had calculated

[1waving] 26/1/2023 10:04

Payment seems low --- New pricing ? --- or low production/oil pricing
Aug USD 38.8m net to GKP



July USD 45.3m net to GKP

June USD 50.7m net to GKP

May USD 45.5 million net to GKP (before a backdated pipeline tariff increase for 2021)

.

[bang_gone] 26/1/2023 09:57

Depends how much capex they spent in past 6 weeks but that's about my best guess.Hi chance ops + corp tomorrow or Monday.What a cash cow this is !.......Probably cash at bank around 140/145m dollars.O/s Sept oct ??nov dec and soon Jan .That?s probably around 180m/190m receivablesWay over half MCAP is therefore proforma cash.Ops and Corporate could well be tomorrow

[broadford bay] 26/1/2023 09:50

Have a look at the Aug-22 discount (to Brent) before you salivate too much...

[eddie47] 26/1/2023 09:49

August Brent crude was, I believe, 10 - 12 %, below that of July.