Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 15/9/2022 15:32

"Try valuing it using the following:

Sarsang producing high 36-39 API, low sulphur oil with lowest Brent discount in region

Shaikan producing LOW 14-17 API, HIGH sulphur oil with HIGHEST Brent discount in region

...then tell us what you get".

Broadford, I reckon around $1.25pb. No one needs to offer more even in these days of fake overpriced oil.

However, no one appears even the slightest bit interested in their heavy extremely difficult to extract oil despite all the clueless rampers here predicting a takeover every minute of every day for the past 10 years.

[highlander7] 15/9/2022 15:10

So they thought 3500 bbls a day was worth $500 million ? How much are we producing again ? Then whats that valuation at 110k bbls a day ? No wonder the trolls are in overdrive.

H7

[habshan] 15/9/2022 14:45

Sarsang.

The current valuation of assets, share prices and everything else about the Kurdish O&G industry is simply a reflection of the politics, we know that, it was discussed at length at the Global Energy Forum in Dubai 6 months ago where Masrour Barzani the Prime Minister and the CEOs of the IOCs talked about it.

Jon Harris - "We know that we trade at a discount and we accept that."

It's got nothing to do with the quality of the fields. If we look at their operations updates over the last year we can see that HKN who operate Sarsang are drilling new wells building new facilities and increasing production, so all is well, it's a good field.

Total pulled out of Kurdistan for three reasons, firstly because they didn't want to put $27 billion of work that they were tendering for in southern Iraq at risk, secondly to finance those deals they needed to restructure their $60 billion of debt which was up from $47 billion the previous year. They got it down to $49 billion the following year by selling off non core assets like their holding in Sarsang, and thirdly with people like Joe Biden saying "we are going to kill oil" and with Greta Thunberg in full swing they took the decision to pivot away from oil:-

"TotalEnergies, meanwhile, is also preparing to sell its 18% stake in the Sarsang oil block in Iraqi Kurdistan to Canadian partner Shamaran. The French company instead committed to a $27 billion investment in Iraq’s energy sector in late 2021.

In September 2021, TotalEnergies signed $27 billion worth of energy deals with the Iraq government for the construction of a new gas network and treatment units, a large-scale seawater treatment plant and a photovoltaic power plant with a total capacity of one gigawatt.

TotalEnergies is also developing the country's Ratawi natural gasfield. As part of the deal signed last year, the company plans to capture and process around 600 million cubic feet per day of gas."

Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné told French newspaper Le Parisien in September that "the company intends to be among the world’s top 5 producers of renewable energy, strict investment discipline would be vital to following a 2 degree Celsius trajectory. This is the best way to protect against the risk of stranded assets, said the executive."

They valued their 18% holding in Sarsang at $500 million, at that time (end of 2020) the world was looking away from oil and because of that and the politics they had no offers from anybody wanting to pay that kind of money to buy into a Kurdish oilfield from the outside and certainly not at the full valuation that had been put on their 18% of the field.

Because of their ongoing negotiations with Baghdad over the southern work they just wanted out so they took Shamaran's $155 million offer.

At the end of 2020 when Total made the decision to exit, oil was a dirty word with reserves looking like they would be stranded and Brent was at $40, things have changed again since then, oil has come back into fashion, Biden has been to Riyadh begging them to increase production and the world has come to it's senses and realised that we can't do without it, once the politics are sorted and an Oil & Gas Law is in place, a situation that is looking more positive with the re-engagement of the Americans, Kurdish valuations will go through the roof.

Meanwhile we get the FDP approved, develop the field, increase production and take the dividends.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 13:20

LSE Yankee doodle paid basher PUTUP woken up across the pond.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 11:53

GKP is producing 12 times that SHAMARAN acquisition , and SELF FINANCING to 25 times that.
Plus its OPERATOR
Plus it has far far larger reserves and production life of oil+gas+condensate
You can see why so much effort has gone into keeping the share price on its @rse pre TAKEOVER.

[broadford bay] 15/9/2022 11:44

Try valuing it using the following:

Sarsang producing high 36-39 API, low sulphur oil with lowest Brent discount in region

Shaikan producing LOW 14-17 API, HIGH sulphur oil with HIGHEST Brent discount in region

...then tell us what you get.

Or ask lickspittle.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 11:28

GKP is producing 12 times that SHAMARAN acquisition , and SELF FINANCING to 25 times that.
Plus its OPERATOR
Plus it has far far larger reserves and production life of oil+gas+condensate
You can see why so much effort has gone into keeping the share price on its @rse pre TAKEOVER.

[highlander7] 15/9/2022 11:09

"And that deal makes us look very cheap, don’t you think? "


Not if you value it on 110k bbls a day it doesnt + assets.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 10:15

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1570335728873226243?t=boVjSmm-OyG-pkD7UisrOA&s=19

[fardels bear] 15/9/2022 10:14

And that deal makes us look very cheap, don't you think?

[fairenough11] 15/9/2022 10:11

Could the Shaikan,Atrush,Sarsang deal be ON?

Interesting times indeed.

Ex Divi date next week.

Wonder how the FDP discussions are going?lol.

[beernut] 15/9/2022 09:32

More on Sarsang field

TotalEnergies completes Kurdistan exit with Sarsang sale
TotalEnergies has completed the sale of an 18% stake in the Sarsang field to ShaMaran, completing its exit from the Iraqi region of Kurdistan.
By Ed Reed
15/09/2022, 9:04 am
Photo of Ed Reed
Pipes against a blue sky
ShaMaran at work in Kurdistan
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TotalEnergies has completed the sale of an 18% stake in the Sarsang field to ShaMaran, completing its exit from the Iraqi region of Kurdistan.

ShaMaran Petroleum bought the Sarsang stake for $155 million, under a deal announced in July. A contingent payment of $15mn may come due in future, based on production and oil prices. The deal is effective as of January 1, 2021.

Sarsang contributed 3,500 barrels per day of oil to Total in 2021. The French company now holds a 22.5% stake in the Halfaya field.

HKN operates Sarsang with a 62% stake, while Kurdistan owns a 20% stake.

“This is a momentous day for ShaMaran”, said the company president and CEO Adel Chaouch. The deal transforms the company “from being a single asset company into one owning a portfolio of stakes in three world class producing oil fields (Atrush, Swara Tika and East Swara Tika) in Kurdistan with improved oil qualities and complementary production horizons”.

Chaouch said the deal would likely see ShaMaran’s production to more than double. “We also expect our reserves to also more than double and the company will update the market on this sizeable reserve acquisition in due course.”

ShaMaran said it would also tidy up its bond structure. It plans to merge its two outstanding bonds into one $300mn issue, maturing in 2025. The company has been buying back its bonds over the third quarter of this year, which means it will own more than 10% of its new 2025 bonds.

It also plans to retire immediately a $20mn convertible issued to Total as part of the purchase price, ShaMaran said. This is 11 months ahead of schedule.

ShaMaran received $14.41mn for its production in May, the most recent month for which it has been paid.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 08:34

Shows transactions doable WITHOUT any HCl .I think SHAMARAN are very much in shop window too.

[nufc9] 15/9/2022 08:25

TotalEnergies (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) has completed the divestment of its 18% interest in the onshore Sarsang oil field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, to ShaMaran Petroleum Corp., a company listed in Canada and Sweden and focused on oil exploration and development in Kurdistan, for a firm consideration of $ 155 million. An additional contingent consideration of USD 15 million is payable in the future depending on production and oil prices.

The Sarsang field, discovered in 2011, is operated by HKN (62%), with KRG owning a 20% interest. TotalEnergies' share of production was around 3,500 barrels per day in 2021.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 08:16

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1570310129009975296?t=bxqnkDct3Y2udAKjloZs7Q&s=19

[highlander7] 15/9/2022 08:03

Buying after any agreement with the USA and KRG/ICG potentially approving the O&G Law will be too late. IMO

This is NOT buying advice. DYOR

[fardels bear] 15/9/2022 07:52

That's the biggie.

[giant_canine] 15/9/2022 07:43

Should you bid/buy after a potential agreement that the USA are forcing ( ultimately for XOM and CVX benefit).After which mcap of Kurd oilers will have rocketed.Or before?

[highlander7] 15/9/2022 05:33

Sounds like "no deal" no cash to me.

The Yanks indicated they might give the ICG the ~ $70 Billion they need for reconstruction after ISIS. They wont get that unconditionally and the EU is going to run out of oil at the end of December when they ban all Russian oil imports. ( IF they do actually ban them that is )

Events are moving in our direction IMO

H7

[nestoframpers] 14/9/2022 21:53

Baghdad are getting some adult supervision then.

[hydrocarbon1] 14/9/2022 15:35

EIA weekly report.
Latest Release
Sep 14, 2022
Actual
2.442M
Forecast
0.833M
Previous
8.844M