Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nestoframpers] 26/9/2019 18:26

Straycat

Posts: 345

Price: 225.50

No Opinion

RE: Positive article Mark, shame about mistakes.Today 17:32
This Assessment by Mark Watson-Mitchell is remarkable because it gives us new updated information regarding cashflow and capex.

Full year capex is now forecast @$100m as opposed to the previous estimates of $130m-$150m.
Since half year spend was declared @$32.4m, this gives us capex spend of $62.6m to go in the second half.
The cash balance is now declared @ $263.6m as at 9 September.
The first tranche dividend @$17.3m must also be included in that declared cash balance since it was distributed on 5/7/2019.
Similarly in the RNS of 2/9/2019 declaring the completion of the first phase of the share buy-back programme we had bought 5,225,933 shares at a VWAP of £2.34, or $15m.

So in cash terms;
If we assume that there is still the second tranche of the dividend spend to come @ $33.3m;
If we include completion of the $10m second phase buy-back spend in the second half;
And if we assume that none of that second half capex of $62.6m has been utilised since 9/9/2019 so is still to be spent;
Then total ‘exceptional’ spend for the second half to come is $106m.

With four months payments to come, at between $70m-$90m at the very least , then by year end our cash position will be repaired nearly back to its half year position of $302.4m
.
All this despite the extraordinary buffeting cash balances have taken, with capex, dividend, and buy-back spend combined exceeding $175m for the full year.

This is a truly outstanding performance, with the outlook even more exciting as we progress to 55k bopd and beyond.

Yet look at the share price and you’re brought crashing back to earth.

A significant re-rate must be coming.

[steephill cove] 26/9/2019 18:25

If someone wanted to source a leak in GKP you would be the perfect patsy as you have not learned to open your mind rather than your mouth.McFly has flown...

[pensioner2] 26/9/2019 18:16

So another 170k+ in the pot. But this time bought by PH in 2 large chunks rather than Cannacord in lots of small ones. Exactly the same pattern as for the first tranche. Does anyone have any idea why this sequence is being followed?

P.S. We haven't seen the usual four equal trades after the close today either.

[urals] 26/9/2019 16:11

Well they have pushing over $half a billion cash facilitiesThey clearly haven't used it to rapidly grow productionSo be very obvious to use it to maximise takeover exit profits through major buyback .

[chinese_takeaway] 26/9/2019 15:48

Taconic sold 30m +at vwap $2.80 to someone?Capital sold 5m at vwap $2.80 to ?The first tranche buyback of 5.225 was vwap just over $2.80All coincidental of course So it's odds on that any pre agreed call options the company had in place at restructuring with debt and noteholders around that strike, for a major off mkt buyback TBCHopefully the more bought in the better for remainers....

[chinese_takeaway] 26/9/2019 13:02

Yes Urals he's leaving very much on "good leaver terms" as the project is finished.Restructuring, caretaker whilst Perella marketed ,and sold it.

[stockport loser] 26/9/2019 12:46

So are we saying sold by Xmas? 2012,13,14,15,16,17,18.......???

[chinese_takeaway] 26/9/2019 12:12

Urals I'd expect off mkt buyback around 65-70m just prior sale at around $2.8-3.00 paid per share soaking up about $200m of enormous cash hroom , concentrating equity remaining 40% plus

[urals] 26/9/2019 12:00

Sami leaves no later Dec 2, sale will complete before then, almost certainly by scheme of arrangement (a procedure that makes for certainty for buyers) takes 8-10weeks typically, so announcement will be within next couple of weeks.

[officerdigby] 26/9/2019 11:30

NB we are talking about $0.0046 lost per shares today. $1m 'saved'

Tricky one as the exact amount of shares in treasury on the day of dvidend issue will be what ever it is on that day in October.

So possibly you can only correct the dividend (if you want to) on the issue day.

Personaly I couldn't care less if the company has bought the shares then why not just 'cancel' that part of the distribution.

[chinese_takeaway] 26/9/2019 11:27

HabshanThe error in dividend calculated means Lansdowne lose $120,000 Sothic near enough the same ....Their is method amongst all this nonsense for sure , as we will shortly discover IMO

[urals] 26/9/2019 10:54

Indeed Chinese, listen to the Company's official statements!Without an imminent SALE they definitely can't VEST for years, hence couldn't be required. " however the company will only hold Shares in TREASURY to satisfy the VESTING of staff share option plans, and if they are not required for this they will be cancelled.Once they have sufficient ( few days or so more ), it's Sold RNS :) but hopefully an off mkt concentrative buyback RNS preceeds that.

[chinese_takeaway] 26/9/2019 10:51

Urals, Chairman could hardly be clearer!" however the company will only hold Shares in TREASURY to satisfy the VESTING of staff share option plans, and if they are not required for this they will be cancelled.Once they have sufficient ( few days or so more ), it's Sold RNS :) but hopefully an off mkt concentrative buyback RNS preceeds that.

[stockport loser] 26/9/2019 10:50

Did they mention the impending takeover at all????

[urals] 26/9/2019 10:35

Bermuda corporate lawA company holding shares as TREASURY shares can, HOWEVER , in respect of those shares, make an allotment of shares as fully paid bonus shares or PAY ANY AMOUNT PAYABLE ble on the REDEMPTION of the shares (if they are also redeemable shares) (e.g. in connection with EMPLOYEES SHARE OPTION PLANS or SHARE DIVIDENDS).

[nestoframpers] 26/9/2019 08:59

Good RNS at HDD today .

[urals] 26/9/2019 08:16

From lse: correct"From Mark Antelme. "Thanks for the call just now. The figures in the RNS of 20 Sept are correct, and take into account the recent buy back activity. The treasury shares are included for the calculation, but the treasury shares are not paid. As ever, the calculation was done in conjunction with Computershare and we are satisfied it is correct.""Big problem with argument IMO.The companies has RNSd a total dividend this year of no less than $25 million plus a special one of $25 million - hence a MINIMUM of $50 million.The total returned to shareholders using their methodology results in less than $50 million, so they are in breach of their own RNS."

[urals] 26/9/2019 08:13

Captain Antelme is wrong, and the company would be breaking corporate law effectively Either the divisor for 33,333,333 should have been reduced from 229,429,566 by those in Treasury on 20/9,and the Div increased, or at that date, under Bermuda corporate law the treasury shares could have been allocated " fully paid bonus shares status" if they were to be redeemed into employee share schemes. In any event all of these shares must be required shortly to vest, or be cancelled, Chairman words, not mine which =change of control.

[guypender] 26/9/2019 07:22

Excellent post BB

[bigdog5] 26/9/2019 00:02

No one should be the least bit surprised that yet another of the Chinese/Urals/1712/111notout/TRM gang's theories has come to zero. Perhaps even the desperately desperate will now wake up to the fact that he makes everything up.

Thanks BB nice explanation/theory there. But I would suggest you need to factor in something much less technical and more obvious as to the reasons.

That was nice of habby to contact the company wasn't it. Its a good job sheddy wasn't tasked with the job as by now he could have posted up that there were 27 interested parties looking over the data and were considering a Xom like mull:-)

And it wouldn't have been any effort, hot lines to all the relevant people on speed dial no doubt:-)

2p to be breached as production at PF2 ceases?

[officerdigby] 25/9/2019 22:11

Basically the Company has saved a few shekels. Not paying out on buy back shares
Big chuffing deal And CT and all his avatars and countless others have bought into his latest conspiracy theory.


What an idiot the chap is!

[nestoframpers] 25/9/2019 22:06

Not everyone has that app , C&P it please.