Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[oil_investor] 06/6/2018 09:53

enormous chinese takeaway: the Market Capitalisation of ShaMaran, just before the announcement of their acquisition of the loss-making US oiler Marathon’s stake of Atrush, was CAD$194m with net debt of CAD$134m. So the Enterprise Value was CAD$328m or US$ $252.6 million.

That ShaMaran EV relates to 20.648 million barrels of 2P Reserves. The current GKP figure given in the ERC Equipoise CPR is 360 million barrels. On a simple pro-rata basis the GKP read-across would be $252.6m x 360m/20.648 = $4.4 billion.

When we look at the recent McDaniel NPV 2P 0% valuation for ShaMaran’s 20.1% stake of Atrush, we see that it’s $379.576 million. So the SNM Enterprise Value was two-thirds of their McDaniel NPV. The current equivalent ERC Equipoise NPV figure for GKP is in the CPR at $3.067 billion. Using the SNM two-thirds ratio, that would give an EV read-across of $2 billion for GKP. It is currently nowhere near that

The ERC Equipoise NPV didn’t fully reflect the exceptionally low production costs at Shaikan, nor the benefits of the connection to the Atrush Feeder Pipeline which I personally expect to go live fairly soon. The GKP NPV used $63 a barrel as the 2018 baseline assumption, which in the light of recent oil price strengthening appears somewhat low. The 2018 production costs per barrel at Atrush are guided by SNM at $6.80 per barrel but are currently running about 10% below that. Shaikan production costs per barrel are of course significantly lower. The Atrush API is higher than for the Shaikan Jurassic, at 25.4 API - though the two should come more into line, going forward, as the Shaikan Triassic light oil and Condensate comes on stream.

The Lundin Family are confident about the value and potential of Atrush. The institutions who have been increasing their holdings in GKP presumably think the same way about Shaikan.

btw I’ve just has a power coffee and croissant with Wigbert, Npeter and Zebedee. They consider that new chairman Jaap Huijskes needs to improve GKP’s Communications and properly set out his stall by the time of the AGM. I would personally be somewhat surprised if he doesn’t.

[gkphero] 06/6/2018 08:34

SP rocketing.

[guypender] 05/6/2018 23:19

Unbelievable. Someone ticked that down. That really says it all

[oilman63] 05/6/2018 23:11

Team failure

Failed to stop me putting him on the BoD.

Failed to stop me from removing Todd.

Enough said.

[bigdog5] 05/6/2018 22:10

OM63, in a way he does make a difference. His posts reek of desperation. One look at his history and it would drive away anyone interested in investing here. He's just too thick to understand:-)

[roverite12] 05/6/2018 22:02

Lest we forget ..........


THIS is why we are ALL here !










"Shaikan is massive, possibly 18b-26b barrels OIP. The 18b figure was recently mentioned by one of the BoD's. TK has suggested we could have 26b.

Value we're not sure but think north of $5 a barrel. Recovery around 30%.

Company maker"

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"Shaikan, 18b barrels = 2916b reserves therefore a value of £9.4b"

[roverite12] 05/6/2018 21:59

Oilman635 Jun '18 - 18:07 - 565855 of 565868

Good Evening 😃





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As predicted by myself earlier today .....the Oilyman is back !


For any newcomers , the Oilyman is the bloke who claims to hold millions of shares but spends all day every day rubbishing the company .

Very strange behaviour


He'll be back again tomorrow along with his pet dog5hite with more semi literate garbage


How do I know how do I know ??????????

[roverite12] 05/6/2018 21:54

Bigdog55 Jun '18 - 15:09 - 565837 of 565867

DNO reduced their cash offer to less than 1p ps so current share price far too high based on the numerous uncertainties and obvious evidenced problems at the asset. Ex Bh's already dumped taking advantage of the oil price and there will be more that exit.


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Just one ever so slight problem with that theory , thicko


Someone spent £40 odd million buying millions of shares


Maybe they read some of your earlier stuff before plunging in


Posts like this for example .....







"Whichever way one cuts the cake, either using $5 a barrel reserves or the $1.5 resources/OIP we get a value around the £19-£20 a share mark. So to me and for even a quick low takeaway we have to be looking at least £15 a share with upside should the Chinese (or even now the Koreans) come for the whole shop"