Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[kiltless highlander] 08/6/2018 09:07

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 09:00

Let’s do some sums.

“kiltless highlander” asserts that “most shareholders in GKP have an average of between 50 pence and £1.50” and that “they will need £50 to £150 to break even”.

Well obviously that’s expressed incorrectly, because the former range is on the pre-consolidation basis. What they’re trying to express is that, in their opinion, most shareholders paid between £50 and £150 a share on the current basis.

That conclusion is based upon a number of premises, any one of which will - if false - invalidate the conclusion.

It is very easy to show that the conclusion is invalid because of the simple reason that “kiltless highlander” has no possible way of knowing what “most” people paid for their shares, short of being in possession of supernatural powers. Therefore there is no basis for what is claimed, and the conclusion is unsound.

It isn’t necessary to look at anything else to show that the conclusion is unsound, but we can do so anyway, as follows. It assumes that “most” people did not (a) take up their Rights in the Open Offer, (b) did not apply for excess shares in the Open Offer, and (c) did not buy cheap shares in the market following the Open Offer. There is no possible way for “kiltless highlander” to know this, short of being in possession of supernatural powers.

What “kiltless highlander” is doing is making up the figure which “most people” allegedly paid for their shares prior to the Consolidation, and is then multiplying that unevidenced figure by 100 - thereby assuming that those people did not acquire any further shares. So there are two unevidenced assertions, compounded together. Either one of them invalidates what they are asserting.

Some people paid very little for their original shares, as little as about 6p (pre-consolidation basis). Some paid 50p to 150p, ditto.

It is certainly the case that the Open Offer was constructed in such a way that it disadvantaged large overseas shareholders, who were even denied access to the Restructuring part of the GKP website via the rigid use by GKP of an IP Tracker to establish whether the device being used to access the website was located in an approved or non-approved territory. But I am not personally aware that anyone who posts on here was denied access.

Anyone who took up their Rights in full, which was 20 new shares for every 9 shares already held, would have increased their holding by a factor of 29/9 which is a factor of 3.22 expressed as a decimal. In return for that, they would have received 14.5% of their original slice of the company. The excess facility, together with the freedom to buy further shares in the open market following the Restructuring, means that the level of dilution suffered by an individual shareholder has been entirely their own responsibility.

The key issue is what people think GKP is potentially worth. “The Minotaur” valued it at $10 billion on Shaikan alone in May 2013. John Gerstenlauer reportedly said in New York, fifteen months earlier, that it was worth c. £5.60 a share (pre-Consolidation basis) on Shaikan alone. Assuming around 900 million shares at that time, the JG figure represented £5 billion. The exchange rate at that time was about $1.57 so his figure equates to $7.85 billion. That is not too different from the estimate given by “The Minotaur”.

[oilman63] 08/6/2018 08:56

Sell out before the restructuring hold one share and buy a good 7 figures in the offer.

So for every single share I held (1) on a pro rata basis I got 7 figures.

[frenchybannedme] 08/6/2018 08:45

The Open Offer was an Open Offer and Excess.

You could apply for 20/9 shares in the Open Offer, and apply again for as many as you liked in the Excess.
You weren't guarranteed to get the number of Excess shares applied for though.
I asked for 5 times my holding overall, and got it.

Nothing to do with banks, by the way, this was all very clear and transparent.

I'm suprised the Oilymanchild seems to have forgotten this procedure.


Oilman63
8 Jun '18 - 08:40 - 566051 of 566055
0 3 0

regards to the restructuring he/she is correct that it was supposed to only be available on a pro rata basis but some of the banks didn't follow the companies guidelines and some people received more and me being one of them.

[gkphero] 08/6/2018 08:42

Ben is both kilt and tess........

[oilman63] 08/6/2018 08:40

☠️

[kiltless highlander] 08/6/2018 08:37

French clown,

Why are you attributing others posts to me?

Talk about desperation.

By the way, after 100/1 dilution in no. of shares, you were allowed 20 for every 9 held, so how did you increase your 'golden tickets' fivefold?

LOFL

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 08:16

DON'T FORGET


USA EXPORTING MORE OIL

OPEC VOTE TO INCREASE OUTPUT

JUNE MONTHLY PAYMENT SET TO FALL FURTHER

$20 MILLION PRODUCTION MILESTONE PAYMENT LOOMS CLOSER

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 08:08

Oh dear,

Now they’re forced to contradict themselves.

The abusuve “kiltless highlander” says:

......................

kiltless highlander7 Jun '18 - 23:24 - 566042 of 566044
0 5 0
Rovershyte,

You are a complete Moron, you cannot mitigate losses of up to 18,000^ by a 100% rise some years after the damage has been done!

Anyway, as we all know the open offer was only available on a strict pro-rata basis.

..................

whereas “Oilman63̶1; has been saying the exact opposite, claiming to be one of GKP’s biggest shareholders (more shares than everyone on here put together) because he says he was given access to as many cheap shares in the Open Offer as he wanted.

[nestoframpers] 07/6/2018 23:55

Safeen Dizayee
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Discussed the financial crisis of the #Kurdistan Region with Xandan. There are indications that we are heading towards recovery and working to build strong and viable institutions to prevent similar fiscal challenges.

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The report from our workshop on 'The Future of the #Kurdistan Region of Iraq After the Referendum', second in the series on '#Baghdad and its Regions' has been published in Arabic and English: Read to make sense of what lies ahead for the KRI

[kiltless highlander] 07/6/2018 23:24

Rovershyte,

You are a complete Moron, you cannot mitigate losses of up to 18,000% by a 100% rise some years after the damage has been done!

Anyway, as we all know the open offer was only available on a strict pro-rata basis.


enormous chinese takeaway7 Jun '18 - 13:49 - 566009 of 566041 (Filtered)

0 6 2
roverite127 Jun '18 - 14:02 - 566010 of 566041
0 9 1
kiltless highlander7 Jun '18 - 07:37 - 565970 of 566002

Bigdog,

You are being far too generous, most in this DOG will have an average between 50 pence and £1.50 imho....

they will need £50 - £150 to break even!


------------------


You obviously haven't heard of the open offer which enabled investors to mitigate their losses .

Those fortunate enough to have spare cash took advantage of this to drastically reduce their average from the calamitous figures you mention above . They have had the chance to further reduce by buying at the low prices since then .

[kiltless highlander] 07/6/2018 23:20

So Rovershyte, you hold for the old 39.27 pence?

LOFL


roverite127 Jun '18 - 16:57 - 566020 of 566040
0 9 1
I admire your optimism , jb

I am very pessimistic by nature and hold for a mere £39.27

We have to be realistic

[kiltless highlander] 07/6/2018 23:19

Yeah? The trouble is, it isn't! LOFL


al57 7 Jun '18 - 12:32 - 566000 of 566039

Yes kiltless 2 pence again and there is no end to this madness - it should be 10 times that.

[frenchybannedme] 07/6/2018 22:04

Did someone mention sandunes?

Why don't we all just take a break and chill out.