Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[kiltless highlander] 05/6/2018 10:00

(masirah),

Sorry to disappoint you, but I have never attributed any valuations here, in fact I have utter contempt for those doing so in the current climate. It is all the work of fiction you see. Therefore what I will say, is his are made up, plucked from thin air on out of date information from years ago.




masirah5 Jun '18 - 09:40 - 565781 of 565782
0 4 1
Kiltless - "That post is a fabrication and so many ifs & buts as usual, assumptions & guesses."

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Sarah.

Kiltless clearly has a problem with Oil-Investors numbers.

Oil-Investor has attributed a value of only $19 or £13.37 per share to the company, whereas you attributed a figure of £49.38.

Where do you stand on this.?

How do you explain the discrepancy.

Which figure is correct, yours or his.?

[oil_investor] 05/6/2018 09:59

masirah: now we have child custard pies on the blog.

My favourite was always Richard Hearne, the hilarious “Mr. Pastry”. Throwing custard pies never seemed all that funny to me. But Mr. Pastry creating total chaos, with flour going everywhere...it was most excellent, dude!

[oil_investor] 05/6/2018 09:17

enormous chinese takeaway: time for some more “barrels valuations” perhaps?

The current “layers of conservatism” (that phrase originated from an iii poster, if I recall correctly?) Competent Person’s Report assigns to GKP 360 million barrels of 2P Reserves and 138 million barrels of 2C Contingent Resources. These numbers do not include GKP CEO Jon Ferrier’s “Condensate correction” which he publicly announced at the Kurdistan-Iraq Oil and Gas Conference on 1 December 2015 in London. He told his audience - in order to provide some upside, as I understand the situation - that highly-valuable Triassic Condensate had been incorrectly categorised as “Gas” and had thereby been excluded from the CPR liquids assessments. I shall use a figure of 100 million barrels for that, IMO that’s reasonable. But people will have to do their research and make up their own minds as always.

So on that basis GKP’s current CPR Category 2 liquids would total 598 million barrels.

Now if we extend that using the figure which The Minotaur used, $6 a barrel, we get a value of some $3.6 billion on Category 2. One can discuss whether $6 is appropriate or not. Some days it is, some days it isn’t. But on top of that value is the money which is due to GKP under various headings. Using GKP’s own figures for that - together with the net cash-at-bank - the total is somewhere around $0.7 billion. And of course whatever GKP spends to get to 55,000 bopd/75,000 bopd/whatever bopd is refunded anyway. So it’s incorrect to start making deductions for that.

If we take the $3.6 billion and add the $0.7 billion, we get $4.3 billion. Which excludes the huge Category 3 volumes of course.

So that’s about $19 per share, excluding the beneficial effects of any reduction in the # of shares (via any buy-back or debt-for-equity swaps, etc). And that’s using the current “Category 2” CPR numbers plus an estimate for the Jon Ferrier “Condensate correction”.

Which is, of course, why we are here.

[nestoframpers] 05/6/2018 08:56

Daniel Schneider
‏

@BiologistDan
11h11 hours ago
More
#California just passed a bill making it almost impossible to drill for oil off its coast, even in federal water. No pipelines, construction equipment, or supplies can originate or pass through California. A major victory for our Oceans and #Environment

[hearts5] 05/6/2018 08:38

Where's Pauls RNS? Not another wrong call.

[tess_tickle] 05/6/2018 08:33

SHAIKAN PSC: SECTION 32.3 PARAGRAPH (d)

SHAIKAN FIELD

PAYMENT OF $20 MILLION TO THE KRG SHALL BECOME DUE

ONCE CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION REACHES

50 MILLION BARRELS.


SOON.