Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bobobobobobob] 07/2/2017 10:00

Can somebody decipher Oilman's desperate rant and tell me if he thinks I am this Bob character that he is always dancing to the tune of?Like a puppet on a string.

[nestoframpers] 07/2/2017 09:59

Good posts Bob , feel sorry for NTOG PIs.

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 09:54

"Nicebut" isn't very precise.

I very specifically said: "Let's have a recap of a few items, which readily come to mind, of what has been concealed from the shareholders:"

I said "a few" items.

I said "which readily come to mind"

Quite how that becomes a purported "list which has gone to the FCA" I have no idea.

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:50

How? LOL- Because its not on your list above.


oil_investor7 Feb '17 - 09:32 - 533570 of 533572 0 0

And quite how "nicebut" knows what is, and what is not, on a list which he thinks I have sent to the FCA, I have no idea.

[phillis] 07/2/2017 09:46

Morning NB
Cook has gone and the price is still 1.3p old money
Tempus fugit

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:37

LOL- Indeed!

[fake taxi] 07/2/2017 09:34

Don't forget the Police are watching you NB. Scared aren't you I bet.More cloud cuckoo land. No doubt like GKP the emails go straight to trash and the phone calls passed over to the tea lady

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 09:32

If "nicebut" already has the answer, then why ask me?

And quite how "nicebut" knows what is, and what is not, on a list which he thinks I have sent to the FCA, I have no idea.

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:30

No, I`m asking why you havn`t included it in your list to the FCA?

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:29

I`ll tell you why it was hidden.

1. Because GKP needed the share price high so TK could off load shares to pay for his divorce
2. So that the BoDs continued to get their ridiculously high bonuses.

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 09:29

"Nicebut" should ask Jon Ferrier.

On what conceivable basis does he think that I can give the answer?

Presumably because the rig had to be released, there was oil being released to surface, there was oil on the logs, the cores were saturated with oil, oil was bleeding from the cores at surface when removed from the core barrels, and GKP had an explanation.

But call Jon Ferrier.

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:25

March 14 was 18 months after SH-6 testing.....Yup I`ve seen it....That information was hidden for c18 month. Why?

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 09:23

Why doesn't "nicebut" watch the 13 March 2014 CPR webcast and see what GKP said about Shaikan-6?

But if he wants a fuller list of what has been concealed, all he has to do is look at the already-published lists, including the 6-pager which was given to the Board at the Paris AGM.

I was focusing upon concealed documents and videos.

[nicebut] 07/2/2017 09:19

And still not a peep from O-I about SH-6 poor testing and water problems that were hidden from shareholders for c18 month?? Weird. Why not? Why havn`t you `informed` the FCA about that?

It was after this news, in the first CPR, that led to the share price falling from c150 to 1p FFS.

But he still carps on as if the conspiracy was all the other way round. With a share price still at 1.3p in old money- I`m quite sure I`d be thinking hang on a minute- Was it just a little bit over hyped....but no....Apparently ALL the good stuff is being hidden ....still. LOL!!

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 09:07

The following is hilarious. Well that's not the word actually, but people will know what I mean.

John Stafford described Shaikan (correctly, in my opinion) as "all a bit shot to pieces with fractures, but that's a good thing".

John Gerstenlauer said that Shaikan was the most fractured reservoir he had ever seen anywhere in the world. He said that ERC Equipoise had adopted a conservative Fracture Porosity of 0.4% because that was the highest figure that their company had ever seen, but he said that "you can find 0.7% to 0.8% in the literature".

One can, in fact, find 3% in the literature. And one can find Reservoirs with Fracture Porosity in the literature as high as 10% though such a high level will typically apply to only part of that reservoir, with other areas of much lower Fracture Porosity. Yet ERC Equipoise say they only applied their 0.4% figure to the net pay within the 1000+ metre Jurassic oil column, not to the entire column, so the overall Fracture Porosity is apparently assumed to be lower than 0.4%. Solid granite has a porosity of about that sort of level.

But Shaikan is so fractured that the 3-month test showed that the Transient Drainage Radius was 6 miles. Oil was moving into the test well from a circle (etc) of a 12 mile diameter. Such drainage areas are virtually unknown. And all the Shaikan wells are in pressure communication with each other in the Jurassic. How is that possible if the Fracture system resembles solid granite? What's more, the Shaikan Well Productivity Indices are among the very highest in the world. The lowest has been given as 150, the highest as 500. These numbers are almost identical to the highly-fractured adjacent Atrush reservoir.

Note that Shaikan is used as an analogue for Atrush, but John Stafford said that he had been unable to find an analogue for Shaikan. But when the AAPG presentation was finally obtained from GKP, it was shown to a Director of ERC Equipoise. And he said that Shaikan seemed to resemble fields in Iran with which he was personally familiar. Yet John Stafford, a previous ERC employee, said that he wasn't familiar with fields in Iran. Despite describing himself as something of a Fracture specialist, I think?

The said ERC Director had said that a low Fracture Porosity figure found be 1%, but if there were dissolution along the fractures (= opened-up with acidic water etc. in the ancient past prior to the reservoir receiving the oil charge) that could easily double. The AAPG presentation referred to such dissolution, and referenced "millimetre- to centimetre-scale dissolution slots" and included several photographs. Photographs which Miss Vvedenskaya (prior to the shareholders knowing that there were such things, let alone seeing them) falsely said had been "superseded by the CPR". Which was impossible anyway, because the AAPG presentation came after the CPR. When the ERC Director saw the AAPG slides and the photographs they contain, he said that he would not have a problem of a 3% Fracture Porosity for Shaikan, on that evidence.

John Stafford indicated, in one of the still-concealed videos, that he thought the 0.4% figure was conservative. He said that 0.2% Fracture Porosity gave 800 million barrels of Reserves.

Now consider what that comment means. Put aside that, if the Fracture Porosity were 1% the (Fracture) Reserves would be 4 billion barrels, or at 2% they would be 8 billion barrels, and at 3% they would be 12 billion barrels (note that the Jurassic Connected Volume was given in the PESGB presentation as some 13 billion barrels). As I say, put that all aside. And focus upon the 0.4% "adopted" by ERC.

Using GKP's own metric, a 0.4% figure would give 1.6 billion barrels of Reserves in the Fracture System alone! Plus the recoverable element from the matrix. For we know that Shaikan is dual-Porosity. Where does that figure appear in the CPR? Er...

And we have production anomalies.

GKP (and John Stafford) projected 440,000 bopd from the Jurassic alone. There are many public domain references to this. Yet I gather that the Convertible Bond holders were told there was a risk of Shaikan "gassing out". And in 2015 GKP heralded a production decline in 2016 which never materialised. Jon Ferrier says he needs four new ESPs and a new well (with an ESP) in order to maintain 40,000 bopd. But in the next breath he says that 55,000 bopd only then requires an additional surface module! So the ESPs and well are clearly capable of delivering 55,000 bopd. So how can they be needed to maintain 40,000 bopd? Then he says that his #1 priority in 2017 isn't anything to do with any of that, but rather to connect Shaikan (via a simple mixing plant) to the 36-inch diameter Feeder Pipeline which is being constructed across the Shaikan block.

With a new COO now in harness, hopefully some proper planning - and meaningful communication - can take place.

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 08:12

Well, the Financial Conduct Authority are well aware of information having been, and still being, concealed from GKP shareholders. Various investigations relating to what has been going on with such things are taking place in various places, including "rigorous investigation" of the leak of the 11 January 2017 RNS.

Let's have a recap of a few items, which readily come to mind, of what has been concealed from the shareholders:

* the 2012 Ryder Scott Shaikan Fracture Report

* the 2012 Shaikan Appraisal Report

* the 2013 PESGB Presentation (note 1)

* the 2013 Shaikan "in house" Field Development Plan volumetrics

* the 2013 Shaikan "supermajor" Field Development Plan

* the 2014 AAPG Shaikan Fracture Presentation (note 2)

* the 2014 Akri-Bijeel production data

* the 2013 Investor Day Webcast (note 3)

* the 2014 CPR Webcast (note 4)

* the 2014 CPR Webcast "follow-up" Gulf TV episode (note 5)

note 1: given limited release by GKP following pressure from shareholders but, despite the contents being approved by the KRG and MOL for presentation, still not on the GKP website

note 2: subsequently published on the website following investigation by Jon Ferrier

note 3: removed from and subsequently reinstated on the company website when Jon Ferrier was told that a copy existed. This is an RNS item

note 4: removed from the company website with untruths being told by the company about its purported "permanent loss" even though it exists. This is an RNS item

note 5: removed from the company website, a copy has very recently been found by shareholders to exist

[bobobobobobob] 07/2/2017 07:46

Confirmation of what a lot of us have known for a couple of weeks. I pity the NTOG investors.

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 07:46

Nostra Terra Oil and Gas

board of directors

Ewen Ainsworth, Non-executive Chairman

Mr Ainsworth is a chartered management account and a fellow of the Institute of Petroleum who brings wide industry experience to his new role. He has worked in the industry for 27 years at various stages of the oil and gas life cycle from exploration to appraisal/development, production and de-commissioning.

Starting his career in the late 1980’s at Conoco, Mr Ainsworth’s career has included Financial Controller, Financial Director and CFO roles across various public and private companies, including six years as Financial Director of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited until 2014. He is currently CFO of CAP Energy Plc, listed on IDSX. In his career he has been involved in companies with assets and operations across the UK, Europe, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq and North and West Africa.

[jozeki] 07/2/2017 07:46

So Pastor Muppet staked his contradictory claims about Shaikan's CPR upon Stafford hiding data, this grand conspiracy. Who's holding baited breath that the company supposedly reveals a new fracture bobocity and Kirkuk CPR?

Come on then, let's hear you rehash Joanna Southcott's lunchbox for the Muppets Munch ;)

[oil_investor] 07/2/2017 07:42

fairenough11: indeed. GKP have just removed him from the website.

btw GKP continue to describe Shaikan as "world class" on their website, which isn't too surprising (putting aside the fact that it is world-class!) because Jon Ferrier says that it will "produce beyond the lifetimes of our grandchildren", Phil Dimmock says that it will "produce for more than 100 years" (John Gerstenlauer having previously said 80 to 100 years) and the company having described it as a "super giant" when the Oil In Place was lower than it is currently.

From the GKP website just now:

Shaikan

Significant operational progress has been made on the Shaikan block since the Shaikan-1 world-class discovery in 2009 to the ramp up of production and crude oil export sales levels of today.

The Shaikan block is situated about 85 km to the north-west of Erbil covering an area of 283 km². The Production Sharing Contract (“PSC”) for the Shaikan block was awarded in November 2007 to Gulf Keystone Petroleum International (Operator with the working interest of 75%), Kalegran Ltd. (100% subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc. with 20%) and Texas Keystone Inc. (5%).

The Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) has an option to nominate a third party interest of up to 15% in the Shaikan PSC and a further option to nominate a government interest of up to 20% following a commercial discovery.

Shaikan: A World-Class Discovery

6 August 2009 - Gulf Keystone announced the Shaikan discovery as a result of its first exploration well.
January 2010 - Final Evaluation Report by Dynamic Global Advisors (“DGA”) on the Shaikan-1 discovery well. Click here
January 2011 - Ryder Scott completed an additional third party analysis of the Shaikan-1 petroleum-initially-in-place Click here
July 2012 - Gulf Keystone’s latest major upward revision of gross oil-in-place figures for the Shaikan field, as calculated by DGA. Click here.
August 2012 - Shaikan was declared a commercial discovery Click here
June 2013 - The Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources approved the Shaikan Field Development Plan Click here
July 2013 – Shaikan commercial production commenced
January 2014 – Export sales of Shaikan crude oil commenced Click here
December 2014 – target of 40,000 bopd achieved Click here

[withoutt] 07/2/2017 07:37

Fairenough11

Let's hope he doesn't want a golden handshake from Gkp. Lol