Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nestoframpers] 08/11/2016 09:32

Spot on Bob .

[nicebut] 08/11/2016 09:31

How many Oil Co`s have taken PSCs up in the last 4 years. How many have walked or handed PSCs back in the last 4 years? There, that`s another little clue for you, which you ignore...

Just a pre coffee example of situational awareness.

[lobo] 08/11/2016 09:31

oil_investor

Is that supposed to make LTHs feel better, given that the "king" has been stolen from them?

[nicebut] 08/11/2016 09:29

I`m just guessing but I should imagine it had nothing to do with the `barrels` and more to do with the behaviour of the MNR....But yes they said `uneconomic`.

[oil_investor] 08/11/2016 09:27

Oh dear.

Uneconomic *when they said it*. At a smashed oil price.

And as I have repeatedly pointed out on here, the current payment cycle began on 1 January 2015. Excluding October 2016 which is not yet due for payment, that makes 21 months. The first 20 of those months have been paid for by the MNR, only the most recent one (September 2016) is not yet paid, but that is barely overdue anyway.

[nicebut] 08/11/2016 09:25

MOL said it was uneconomic. (What with PoO and a payment schedule that was at the MNRs whim)

But you missed that.

[oil_investor] 08/11/2016 09:22

WHY DID MOL WALK AWAY FROM AKRI-BIJEEL?

The reason that GKP lost their slice of A-B is because MOL (80%, operator) walked away from it. But why did they do that? We know that it was on 5,000 bopd commercial production in June 2015, we know that MOL were working on debottlenecking it in order to lift production to the "nameplate" 10,000 bopd capacity of the surface processing facilities, and we know that there were extensive road tanker movements in August 2015 because a "scout" waited by the roadside and counted them. The "scout" also established where the A-B production was going.

MOL have taken a $700 million "hit" on A-B, an asset which was their key worldwide development asset. It seems hard to believe that MOL's technical team could have got it so disastrously wrong, not least because there were two separate discoveries within the A-B block: Bijell and Bakrman. If we look at what ERC said in the CPR, they considered that Shaikan was an analogue for Bakrman. When one looks at the maps, it is not hard to see why there could be similarities between Bakrman and Shaikan (and Atrush, ShaMaran having of course publicly stated that they consider Shaikan to be an analogue for Atrush). Put this evidence together, and Shaikan, Atrush and Bakrman appear similar, though Shaikan (together with the footwall extension into Sheikh Adi as far as the massive slip-fault) is the "King".

Following the recent allocation of the Shaikan BIRs between GKP, MOL and the MNR, the percentage which MOL has of Shaikan at the asset level is 16% (GKP has a massive 58%, with the KRG having the remaining 26%).

Now the key issue - as always - is The Barrels. How many recoverable barrels are there in Shaikan? The final DGA figure was 13.7 billion barrels OIP on a P50, but that figure was not comprehensive and the P10 was 15 billion. Stafford gave the Connected Volume in the Jurassic alone as c. 13 billion barrels. The CPR gave 13.2 billion boe OIP. How close can a Recoverable figure come to an OIP figure? Well that depends upon the fraction of the Total Porosity which is represented by the Fracture System, in a carbonate reservoir. It can potentially be high.

So returning to the issue of MOL: what is their 16% of Shaikan worth? I'm not even sure that this question has been asked on the blogs. Suppose one were to "test" three cases: low, mid and high, and assume a value of $6 per barrel. Then the MOL stake would be "worth":

Low case: say 2.5 billion Recoverable x 16% x $6 = $2.4 billion

Mid case: say 5.0 billion Recoverable x 16% x $6 = $4.8 billion

High case: say 10 billion Recoverable x 16% x $6 = $9.6 billion

(Incidentally, the KRG stake would be $3.9 billion, $7.8 billion and $15.6 billion on that basis)

OK. One can derive almost anything with speculation...but in my opinion, a couple of points drop out of the above:

1. if Shaikan is massive, then the MOL stake is worth a fortune. Their capex commitment, to realise that fortune, would be relatively small, particularly compared to what would have been required to continue at A-B

2. similarly, the KRG stake is worth an even bigger fortune. Indeed: if the KRG were to sell their stake, still receiving the bulk of the value of Shaikan via the PSC terms *and* getting 100% of Shaikan at the end of the PSC (unless renegotiated etc), the resultant sum could potentially offset a decent chunk of the total KRG debt, to which Dr. Ashti referred only yesterday.

The Barrels are at the heart of it all IMO

Just a pre-breakfast mull.

[1712notout] 08/11/2016 08:56

99.95% of the freely tradeable 23bn just holding today

The 14/10 Rns was a belter wasn't it??

The one published after the event it referred


Massive buy
😳😳😳😳8563;😳ԅ25;😍😍;😍😍😍
Much love

[1712notout] 08/11/2016 08:11

I suspect JB that the scheme in place is a lock up regards 85% d4e shares

Hence the utterly trivial volumes

I also suspect until the scheme implementation conditionality regards MNR second amendment etc in place then

There is more to this than meets the eye

A contemporaneous transaction for sale/Jv????????

Time will tell


Obviously a massive buy in any event - the market discount to any trade value is huge

👀👀👀👀8064;👌

[sidesplitting] 08/11/2016 08:09

"Looks like GKP is flatlining at 1.2p for some reason."




Sideways, down.
Sideways, down.
Sideways, down.

And so on!

[gkphero] 08/11/2016 08:02

A bidding war is very likely here imo.

[j0ck ewing] 08/11/2016 08:00

No. You won't.

[gkphero] 08/11/2016 07:53

Looks like GKP is flatlining at 1.2p for some reason.

Will we see further offers arrive?

[oliver666] 07/11/2016 23:59

Gulfsands wensite , says it all.. No mention of GKP or Kepis Pobe..The deatils of his bohus CV are still on line published by MG Capital , its hysterical , that you have to of the most corrupt II's in GKP history

John Bell is a Chartered Engineer with over 30 years experience in the energy sector having worked at Vice President or Managing Director level at BP, Statoil AS and Suncor Energy (Syria).

He has spent a large part of his career in the Middle East, as well as time in North Africa, the Americas, the UK North Sea, Scandinavia & the Caribbean. John is currently Executive Chairman of Tethys Petroleum, a TSX and LSE listed public oil and gas company.

"From May 2014 to December 2014, a company associated with John had a consultancy agreement with a subsidiary of the Company."

[nestoframpers] 07/11/2016 22:31

POTENTIAL REFUGEES KIDNAP WOMAN - MOB RAPE pic.twitter.com/0hwm5s3FHX this scum will prob be crossing Europe's borders in the summer
— Jani (@janimine)

[olieslim] 07/11/2016 21:15

It was an 'act of mercy' to report to have hit 40k ~ almost and they probably wrecked the wells ~ just to let JG of the hook, wasn't it?

P.S. or 25 (can't remember everything; number is/was irrelevant anyway for anybody except JG)

[olieslim] 07/11/2016 21:11

Probably:
Michael Murphy
Iraq Analyst
> Bio

(That bio is interesting, click it. Can't imagine someone like that just thumbsucking numbers for no matter who. Must have been someone else? But that'll come out in "Kurdistan courts" (Nope, don't believe that either)

P.S. Caspian, 'the consultant'


P.P.S.
The wikileaks has a phonenumber in it.


Now, I can't afford to go calling after P.S. and P.P.S.... not that I am curious or something about trivials like 'facts', just wondering how one would get fobbed of ;-)

[lardner23] 07/11/2016 21:10

Olieslim, the KAR figures are murky, in terms of export payments.

[nestoframpers] 07/11/2016 21:02

Rojava Defense Units ‏@DefenseUnits 2h2 hours ago
#Turkish army builds boundary wall, directly targets #YPG which is participating in #Raqqa campaign against #Daesh:

[nicebut] 07/11/2016 20:58

lardner,

Yup...its called different things...But `risky shift` was another- whereby a group talk themselves down the wrong avenue believing it to be the correct one- In aviation- the results could be a swift burning hole in the ground- They bite very quickly when things go wrong...In GKP`s terms it was a share price of a penny after a descent from c220p....they still can`t believe it can they?

[olieslim] 07/11/2016 20:56

"Anyone wishing to see how wrong NRT’s production figures are can go to the corporate websites of publicly-listed IOCs producing in Kurdistan."

----------------

Oh dear...

[lardner23] 07/11/2016 20:54

krr13, who on earth wrote that response on behalf of a regional government?