Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[habshan] 26/12/2022 18:07

Good stuff Punter, many thanks.

Fingers crossed that they can get a deal done this time.

[riskreward1] 26/12/2022 18:01

The details of the practicalities and details of this new law will take time to be resolved but it seems to be a sesmic change in how oil and gas in Kurdistan will be managed going forward.

[punter26] 26/12/2022 17:37

After years of delay and disagreement, an agreement was reached by the "majority" to pass the oil and gas law
(baghdadtoday.news: Dec 26 2022 14:08)




"Today, Monday, the Kurdistan Democratic Party revealed the existence of a political agreement to pass the oil and gas law with the start of the new legislative term of the House of Representatives.

The leader of the party, Wafaa Muhammad Karim, told (Baghdad Today) that "there is a political agreement between all political blocs and parties to pass the oil and gas law because of its importance, with the start of the new legislative term of the House of Representatives."

And Karim said, "This law, which will regulate the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil with all the oil and financial files, will be passed by the parliamentary majority. The agreement to pass the law took place between the blocs and parties of the State Administration Coalition."

The Oil and Gas Law, which has been awaiting legislation in Parliament since 2005, stipulates that the responsibility for managing the country's oil fields should be entrusted to a national oil company, and it should be supervised by a federal council specialized in this matter.

But since 2003, Baghdad and Erbil have been at odds over the issue of managing the region's oil fields.

Baghdad says that the region does not authorize real oil export sums and does not hand those sums over to it, while Kurdistan says that exports from the oil fields in its territory must be subject to its management, whether in terms of granting licenses for new exploration, managing existing fields, or controlling production and export. For the destinations he chooses, or contracting for the purchase and development."

[nestoframpers] 26/12/2022 10:35

UP 3 % FROM mALIKIS DAYS he sent 11% , BUT the kURDS RECKONED THAT THEY WERE DUE 17% . So a compromise has been reached on the % . They should get more than 14 % to help with all the IDPs imo.

[punter26] 26/12/2022 09:41

Because of the differences..a parliamentary vote to delay approving the budget
(almaalomah.me Dec 25 15:41)



"Former member of the House of Representatives, Fadel Al-Fatlawi, today, Sunday, suggested delaying the approval of the financial budget law for more than a month, and while he attributed this to reasons, including differences between Baghdad and Erbil, he confirmed the existence of understandings within the "dark rooms" to reach an agreement.

Al-Fatlawi said in an interview with the information agency, "The budget law was supposed to be sent to parliament and approved before the legislative recess or the end of the current year, but many reasons worked to delay it until the moment."

He added, "It is expected that passing the budget will be delayed for more than a month or two," attributing the reason to "differences between the central government and the Kurdistan region over the latter's share."

The former member of Parliament explained that "the other reason is the differences between the ruling parties, which are both the Patriotic Union and the Kurdistan Democratic Party."

And Al-Fatlawi said: "Despite the many differences, negotiations and dialogues openly and inside dark rooms continue to try to reach a solution," noting that "there are many problems and obstacles facing the Sudanese government, which has an ambitious program."

Earlier, a member of the House of Representatives, Muhammad Saadoun Al-Sudani, confirmed that the current government will cut the financial share of the Kurdistan region in the event that it does not commit to handing over oil imports, while stressing that the Sudanese government did not follow Al-Kazemi's mistake in dealing with the region.

And speculation continues about the share of the Kurdish component of the federal budget, especially with the frequent visits of the Kurdish delegation to Baghdad in an attempt to increase their share and obtain as much political wishes as possible."





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Disclosure of the Kurds' share of the budget: It was decided during the delegation's visit to Baghdad
(almaalomah.me Dec 25 17:35)



"Today, Sunday, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Wafaa Muhammad, revealed the share of the Kurdistan region from the financial budget for the next year, while explaining the impact of the differences between Barti and Alekti on the nature of the negotiations with Baghdad.

Muhammad said in an interview with Al-Maalouma agency, "There is a near agreement between the Kurdistan region and the central government regarding the share of the Kurdish component of the financial budget law for the year 2023."

He added, "The region's share will be 14%, and it was almost certainly agreed upon during the last Kurdish delegation's visit to the capital, Baghdad."

Regarding the impact of the differences between the Parti and Alekti on the negotiations with the central government, the leader explained, "The differences between the Union and the Democratic Party are within the Kurdistan region and will not affect the understandings and negotiations with Baghdad."

Earlier, the former member of the House of Representatives, Fadel Al-Fatlawi, suggested delaying the approval of the financial budget law for more than a month, and while he attributed this to reasons, including the differences between Baghdad and Erbil, he confirmed the existence of understandings within the "dark rooms" to reach an agreement.

And speculation continues about the share of the Kurdish component of the federal budget, especially with the frequent visits of the Kurdish delegation to Baghdad in an attempt to increase their share and obtain as much political wishes as possible."

[highlander7] 25/12/2022 12:53

We need a PM who actually understands how most of us live. Which rules out Sunak.

[highlander7] 25/12/2022 09:10

Sunak wont last. Watch the u tube video where he asks a homeless bloke if he works in financial services.

He is a Hedge Fund Manager. Elected without member agreement. He is toast.

[nestoframpers] 24/12/2022 20:02

Hope your right H7 , JRM looks very despondent knows the writing is on the wall , his sister Annunziata Rees-Mogg will stand as a Reform MP next time I think I read somewhere.

[highlander7] 24/12/2022 16:40

It will all change in the May local elections when this lot get get virtually wiped out. Net Zero will be dumped.
They have given Sunak 6 months to get ahead of Labour in the polls or he is toast.

[petebreeze37] 24/12/2022 15:38

Nesto, there are all about 10 to 20 mps with integrity, the rest are spineless representatives of a gutless, greedy idle nation.
The genuine people are flogging a dead horse, bring back Guy, is a statement vastly understated

[nestoframpers] 24/12/2022 11:23

yes sparkplug the UK has to buy oil from else where as there is no political will in the Tories to get it out of our own ground , barking mad but that is where we are . We need a clean out of the HoCs.

[spark plug] 24/12/2022 11:12

Happy Christmal All
Well the Christmas New Car Brochures are looking a bit dog eared after ten years of perusing but at last all parties concerned appear to be on the same page. With the Uk & Europe needing more energy security and the frequent visits from our European neighbours to Erbil, I feel certain there is a real desire to agree to a oil plan that is in everybodys interest, we have been here before, but not to the same degree as this time. - good luck all.

[beernut] 24/12/2022 08:17

Oil Prices Jump After Russia Says It May Cut Production

By ZeroHedge - Dec 23, 2022, 9:30 AM CST

After two weeks of silence in detailing how it would react to the G7 oil price cap, overnight the Kremlin raised the stakes for the west when state-run Tass news service quoted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying that Russia may reduce output by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day in response to the cap.

While not yet formalized, President Putin plans to sign a decree on the nation’s reaction to the threshold on Monday or Tuesday, containing unspecified “preventive measures."

“A risk-on sentiment and a weaker US dollar are helping oil today,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS Group AG. “The Russian comments are also helping but the market probably wants to see it before it believes, hence a muted response.”

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, traders have been waiting for Moscow’s full response to the cap, a policy that imposed a $60-a-barrel ceiling on Russian crude in a bid to reduce the Kremlin’s income while keeping exports on the market. While the policy has largely worked so far, with Russia's popular Urals oil trading below $60 due to sharp discounts to Brent, as the price of oil rises, Urals will also rise above the critical threshold potentially depriving the world of million in barrels of daily supply.

[beernut] 24/12/2022 07:44

Sludge gaining ground.

Happy Christmas all

Basra's heavy crude gains nearly 3% as Russia says it will lower output, China's demand recovers
Economy
Oil Prices

2022-12-24 06:47


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Shafaq News/ Crude oil prices settled higher Friday, as Moscow said it may cut oil production to offset price caps on Russian crude imposed by the G7 nations and the European Union.
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On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures settled 2.7% higher at $79.56 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent added 3.6% to settle at $83.92 a barrel.
Despite a $0.45-loss on the final day, Basra's heavy crude posted a weekly gain of 2.91%, or $2.03, settling at $71.79.

[nestoframpers] 23/12/2022 19:36

Why not have a KURD blend , there is plenty of it after all.

[habshan] 23/12/2022 19:08

hangthedj, having read the news releases from the IOCs on the subject and listened to Adel Chaouch the CEO of Shamaran answering a question about it a couple of weeks ago the fact is that until they've had a few months to assess it nobody seems to know what the affect will be.

The point of my post was to ask Bigdog what her explanation is as once again she has repeated her inference that it is all about Erbil caving in to Baghdad's demands. What in her opinion has Baghdad got to do with it.

Not that I expect a reply, once again she's made a remark without providing anything whatsoever to support it.

But more detail from the IOCs would have been helpful as all they've said (Shamaran) is that it's "In order to reflect current market conditions for oil sales at Ceyhan" which doesn't tell us much although HKN did offer this:-

"HKN believes KBT is similar in quality to the published Kirkuk Ceyhan blend and that market prices for these blends have suffered in part due to competition with heavily discounted Russian crude."

The amendment became effective retroactively from September 1, 2022. so I guess we'll just have to wait until the September payments are received before the affect can be determined.

The IOCs all say the same thing - "The impact on realised prices remain uncertain and further updates will be provided as appropriate."

[hangthedj] 23/12/2022 18:27

Habshan, you don't think there's a possibility the MNR are changing ref price from Dated Brent to KBT in order to increase their margins and probably pay the IOC's a bit less on the overall deal?

Do you know if HKN and/or SNM payment have been adversely affected?
It would be interesting if KBT price moves higher than Dated Brent but guess that's unlikely to happen.

[habshan] 23/12/2022 17:45

Bigdog - "No matter how Erbil spin any outcome Baghdad will get what they want. Has Erbil already accepted that fact and is the reason why they're already altering the terms as mentioned in the operational update:-)"

How about having a go at putting some meat on the bone and explaining what you mean there Sarah.

The renegotiating of the sales agreements is "to change the reference price for Kurdish crude oil sales payments from Dated Brent to KBT (Kurdistan Blend) IN ORDER TO REFLECT CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS FOR OIL SALES AT CEYHAN."

HKN and Shamaran both signed up for it two months ago.

You tell us that this is happening because it's what Baghdad wants.

So here's the question Sarah:-

Why would Baghdad want the reference price for Kurdish oil to be changed from Brent to the Kurdish blend in order to reflect current market conditions at Ceyhan.

And as there is no mention anywhere of an amendment to the PSCs changing how the revenue is split then if the realised price is less as a result of the change then it means that everybody including the KRG will get less.

In which case why would anybody want to do it.

And what's in it for Baghdad.

What do you think.

[intrinsic1] 23/12/2022 16:21

He won't.He is paid to batter sentiment....

[thebabe] 23/12/2022 15:10

The paid US basher wakes up across the pond.
Merry Christmas Condog.

[nestoframpers] 23/12/2022 14:54

Merry Christmas to all the unwavering LTHs I have shared this BB with for so long, here's to next Christmas being the one that we will be celebrating in a more flamboyant style , loads more GKP reasons to be a lot more cheerful then I reckon.