Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[shortsqueezer] 10/11/2022 15:59

Dunno. I can only see bots trading. No real buying or selling from investors. But I guess that's how they manage to accumulate big holdings. I am expecting a gradual increase in buying here in advance of the HCL being agreed. It will be too late by the time it happens. And it will happen this time. Take that to the bank :-)

[johnbuysghost] 10/11/2022 15:58

Yes, somebody knows something...........

[0ili0] 10/11/2022 15:50

Summats up 🤔

[0ili0] 10/11/2022 15:50

Summats up 🤔

[johnbuysghost] 10/11/2022 15:30

Big buys going through.

[thebabe] 10/11/2022 14:11

And the market is fwd looking JB...expect news.

[johnbuysghost] 10/11/2022 14:06

£100+ per share is the truth.......

[0ili0] 10/11/2022 14:01

HCL on its way 🛢️
29312;💭

...then the truth.

[turvart] 10/11/2022 13:17

This share price is just crazy, in Dec of which is just around the corner Russia are cutting production because the EU are not using Russian oil, oil prices will spike, we could easily see GKP up over 250p area and it will happen fast, oil will be easily be over $110 barrel.

[turvart] 10/11/2022 12:27

I’ve purchased nearly 7000 shares as a top ups over the last 2 days, GKP is now my largest holding in my portfolio.

[beernut] 10/11/2022 12:13

KRG says Baghdad agreed to enact a hydrocarbons law within six months of the government's formation
Iraq News
kudistan
Baghdad
2022-11-10 11:06
A-
A
A+
Shafaq News/ The political agreement that gave birth to Mohammad Shiya al-Sudani's cabinet stipulates that a bill on hydrocarbons should be enacted within six months of its installation, the spokesperson to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Gutiar Adel, said on Thursday.

Speaking in a press conference earlier today, Adel said that the region's government is still keen on resolving the differences with the federal government.

"The region's government has formed a ministerial delegation to negotiate with Baghdad," said the KRG spokesperson, "we are currently waiting for a response to proceed with the negotiations."

"The negotiations will tackle the issues the political forces agreed on prior to the formation of the government," he explained, "some of these issues deal with legislative affairs. The others are mainly executive."

Adel said that the hydrocarbon bill, the federal budget, and Article 140 of the constitution come at the top of the list.

"We have reached an agreement to disburse the budget and give the Kurdistan region its share in accordance with the constitution... The financial monitors in Baghdad and the region are working out solutions for the outstanding financial issues."

KRG's spokesperson said that an agreement between the political forces comprises enacting new laws on oil and gas, the federal supreme court, and the federal service council within six months of forming a government.

[steephill cove] 10/11/2022 12:11

Hold on to your oil and gas stocks
Oil and gas stocks have done very well in the last few months. But theyve got a long way to run yet.

by: Dominic Frisby
10 NOV 2022

The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change.

Today we consider energy and oil and gas stocks once again.

While oil and gas prices have done a great deal over the last six months up a bit, down a bit, then sideways the associated companies have done very well: the producers, the service companies and so on.

Many years of bear market belt tightening are now paying off.

However, in my opinion, we are not yet at that point of excess and decadence that marks the end of a cycle crazy mergers and acquisitions, insane valuations and Bacchanalian behaviour from the executive classes. So I venture today, as last week, that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank of this bull market.

With that in mind, I wanted to share a few charts with you today that give an idea of what is possible.

Oil and gas stocks are on the rise

The first chart shows the ratio between energy stocks and the rest of the market.

Indeed, without energy stocks there would not be a rest of the market. This a simple point that many, especially those who make policy, don't seem to understand. The world we live in today and the economic benefits we enjoy, relative to our ancestors, have been made possible by fossil fuels.

So here is the energy sector relative to the S&P 500. The higher the chart goes, the bigger the relative market cap of oil and gas stocks.

You can see that, even with the rally we have seen in energy companies since 2020, on a relative basis, energy companies are, give or take, where they were at the turn of the century, when oil itself was around $10/barrel and that secular bull market was only just getting started.

CHART1

You can also see that we are in an uptrend. Energy stocks are increasing in value, while the broader S&P500 is flat or falling.

Its also worth noting that the relative market capitalisation was almost three times as large in mid 2008 when oil went to $147/barrel.

The inference is that the bull market has a lot further to run.

Oil and gas stocks are cheap compared to the broader market

Next, the ratio between oil West Texas Intermediate and the S&P 500.

You would expect this chart to trend lower over time because oil production and extraction techniques should improve over time, while broader economies and the companies that operate in them grow.

Nevertheless, we are below the levels we were in the early part of the century. You can see how high this ratio went in 2008 and how low in the corona panic of 2020, when oil futures, somehow, went into negative territory.

CHART2

Relative to the S&P 500, oil is roughly where it was three or five years ago Id say its at its three or five year average. And its a lot cheaper than it was throughout that entire 2003 to mid 2014 timeframe.

So even with the gains of the last two years, oil does not look expensive relative to the S&P 500. It is at the cheaper end of the range. Another sign there is more gas left in the bull market tank.

Heres the price of oil relative to gold. These two as hard commodities tend to trade in a much tighter range over time, but my observation again is that it is in the low to middle of the 20 year range and not at one of those points of extremity whereby you might consider rolling out of one and into the other.

For sure we are nothing like where we were went oil went to $147 in 2008. In fact, we are below where we were for most of the 2000s. On the basis of this chart, oil is probably the cheaper of the two.

CHART3

As regular readers will vouch, oil is a drum I have been beating since 2016 when it was $25 or so, declaring it our trade of the lustrum. A lustrum is a five year period, a useful and underused word, Id say.

That lustrum is now becoming a decade. We continue to beat the drum on oil, gas, coal and related oil and gas stocks. Fossil fuel demand will continue to grow until at least 2030 the IEA has forecast (2040 in the case of natural gas).

There is still a strong case for fossil fuels

That means it is not just enough to maintain current production levels; they need to increase. Yet there have been seven or eight years of underinvestment, leading to todays shortages.

There are multiple reasons why production isnt keeping up with demand. ESG policies are deterring investment, capital is flooding into green energy related companies rather than fossil fuels and the excesses of the previous oil bull market still needed to be purged.

Still, the market conditions remain good and I think oil and gas stocks will go higher in the long term.

Im a big believer in narratives within markets. The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change. Many are realising just how important they are and what they have made possible. Indeed, there is a strong moral case for them, not against them.

But the narrative is not yet at end of cycle levels. When people start talking about Peak Oil again, thats the sort of thing you want to be looking out for. The need for alternative energy sources is not because fossil fuels are bad, but because we have consumed them all.

I dont know what the end of bull market narratives will be, thats a story that is yet to be told. But if legislators and subsidisers start abandoning electric vehicle initiatives because the ultimate source of electricity remains the burning of fossil fuels, and its really quite inefficient, never mind hypocritical, that is one possible scenario

So hold on to your positions in oil and gas stocks, enjoy the ride.

[steephill cove] 10/11/2022 12:08

HTTPS://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/energy-stocks/605499/oil-and-gas-stocks?utm_campaign=moneyweek_newsletter_20221110&utm_source=moneyweek_newsletter&refid=8D3BA7953159A22CC285A74C21272D54&utm_medium=email

[highlander7] 10/11/2022 12:04

As Goldman Sachs said 2 years ago.

" We have one last Oil Boom coming " They are very seldom wrong.

H7

[steephill cove] 10/11/2022 11:52

Hold on to your oil and gas stocks
Oil and gas stocks have done very well in the last few months. But they’ve got a long way to run yet.

by: Dominic Frisby
10 NOV 2022

The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change.

Today we consider energy and oil and gas stocks once again.

While oil and gas prices have done a great deal over the last six months – up a bit, down a bit, then sideways – the associated companies have done very well: the producers, the service companies and so on.

Many years of bear market belt tightening are now paying off.

However, in my opinion, we are not yet at that point of excess and decadence that marks the end of a cycle – crazy mergers and acquisitions, insane valuations and Bacchanalian behaviour from the executive classes. So I venture today, as last week, that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank of this bull market.

With that in mind, I wanted to share a few charts with you today that give an idea of what is possible.

Oil and gas stocks are on the rise

The first chart shows the ratio between energy stocks and the rest of the market.

Indeed, without energy stocks there would not be a rest of the market. This a simple point that many, especially those who make policy, don't seem to understand. The world we live in today and the economic benefits we enjoy, relative to our ancestors, have been made possible by fossil fuels.

So here is the energy sector relative to the S&P 500. The higher the chart goes, the bigger the relative market cap of oil and gas stocks.

You can see that, even with the rally we have seen in energy companies since 2020, on a relative basis, energy companies are, give or take, where they were at the turn of the century, when oil itself was around $10/barrel and that secular bull market was only just getting started.

CHART1

You can also see that we are in an uptrend. Energy stocks are increasing in value, while the broader S&P500 is flat or falling.

Its also worth noting that the relative market capitalisation was almost three times as large in mid 2008 when oil went to $147/barrel.

The inference is that the bull market has a lot further to run.

Oil and gas stocks are cheap compared to the broader market

Next, the ratio between oil – West Texas Intermediate – and the S&P 500.

You would expect this chart to trend lower over time because oil production and extraction techniques should improve over time, while broader economies and the companies that operate in them grow.

Nevertheless, we are below the levels we were in the early part of the century. You can see how high this ratio went in 2008 – and how low in the corona panic of 2020, when oil futures, somehow, went into negative territory.

CHART2

Relative to the S&P 500, oil is roughly where it was three or five years ago – Id say its at its three or five year average. And its a lot cheaper than it was throughout that entire 2003 to mid 2014 timeframe.

So even with the gains of the last two years, oil does not look expensive relative to the S&P 500. It is at the cheaper end of the range. Another sign there is more gas left in the bull market tank.

Heres the price of oil relative to gold. These two as hard commodities tend to trade in a much tighter range over time, but my observation again is that it is in the low to middle of the 20 year range and not at one of those points of extremity whereby you might consider rolling out of one and into the other.

For sure we are nothing like where we were went oil went to $147 in 2008. In fact, we are below where we were for most of the 2000s. On the basis of this chart, oil is probably the cheaper of the two.

CHART3

As regular readers will vouch, oil is a drum I have been beating since 2016 when it was $25 or so, declaring it our trade of the lustrum. A lustrum is a five year period, a useful and underused word, Id say.

That lustrum is now becoming a decade. We continue to beat the drum on oil, gas, coal and related oil and gas stocks. Fossil fuel demand will continue to grow until at least 2030 the IEA has forecast (2040 in the case of natural gas).

There is still a strong case for fossil fuels

That means it is not just enough to maintain current production levels; they need to increase. Yet there have been seven or eight years of underinvestment, leading to todays shortages.

There are multiple reasons why production isnt keeping up with demand. ESG policies are deterring investment, capital is flooding into green energy related companies rather than fossil fuels and the excesses of the previous oil bull market still needed to be purged.

Still, the market conditions remain good and I think oil and gas stocks will go higher in the long term.

Im a big believer in narratives within markets. The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change. Many are realising just how important they are and what they have made possible. Indeed, there is a strong moral case for them, not against them.

But the narrative is not yet at end of cycle levels. When people start talking about Peak Oil again, thats the sort of thing you want to be looking out for. The need for alternative energy sources is not because fossil fuels are bad, but because we have consumed them all.

I dont know what the end of bull market narratives will be, thats a story that is yet to be told. But if legislators and subsidisers start abandoning electric vehicle initiatives because the ultimate source of electricity remains the burning of fossil fuels, and its really quite inefficient, never mind hypocritical, that is one possible scenario

So hold on to your positions in oil and gas stocks, enjoy the ride.

[cicero666] 10/11/2022 10:16

H7
It would be a dire miss-calculation if Trump and the Military, who are really in charge, let this election go this same way as 2020.
As DJT has said on a number of occasions, ''nothing can stop what is coming''.
A great game is being played! Does Elon Musk have a part to play, as he delisted Twiitter on election day?

[highlander7] 10/11/2022 10:09

OIL TANKERS TO SEE BIGGEST DEMAND SURGE IN DECADES
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Demand for oil tankers carrying oil products is set to soar next year to heights not seen in three decades, according to new research from Clarkson Research Services, Ltd., cited by Bloomberg. The research organization is forecasting that the number of ton-miles will increase next year by 9.5%--the largest annual increase since 1993. {Ton miles—the volume of cargo multiplied by the distance that cargo traverses—is a common gauge that the shipping industry uses}

Part of the reason behind the anticipated demand surge for ton miles for oil products is the change in routes due to Russia’s soon-to-be restrictions on exports. Russia will need to redirect crude product flows to buyers not involved in price capping or sanctions, such as Asia—but this rerouting is expected to increase the distance that Russian cargos are shipping.

“It could easily be five or six times the distance and that means that you’ll need much more ships to transport the same volume that you imported previously,” said Anders Redigh Karlsen, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, told Bloomberg. “That is going to drive demand for product tankers.”

In September, Danish shipping company Torm told Bloomberg that “The EU ban on Russian oil products from February 2023 will spark a recalibration of the oil trade ecosystem. Some of this trade recalibration has already started.” Another factor are new refineries in Asia and the Middle East, which are expected to begin to exporting.

The oil tanker market is already having a good year earnings-wise, as rates for carrying refined fuels on medium-range voyages increase to levels not seen since 2008. Demand for tankers has been on the rise ever since the EU sanctioned Russia, and shipping companies were left scrambling to get ahold of ice-class tankers ahead of the embargo. Few tankers have been built in the past few years, and since this is not something the industry can reverse overnight, supply will probably remain tight, pushing the cost of transporting oil and fuels higher.

[1waving] 10/11/2022 09:33

H7
Massive voter fraud now kicked in at Maricopa County, Arizona. ( Has most of state vote -- Phoenix area )
One example is Kari lake, the massive favourite for Governor.
At 8.30 UK time last night an algorithm was injected into the machines to control the count by keeping her very weak opponent continuously just over 50% of the vote and Kari Lake just under 50%.

It is the same algorithm as Lula used in Brazil and also used by many in the USA elections, one example is the re-election of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in the primaries a few months ago.
It is easy to spot once you have seen it.

Republicans should still take the House and the Senate, but only by a whisker in the Senate with Nevada and a re-run in December in Georgia.

That is subject to any more criminality in the election and legal cases that will now happen.
Once again a massively corrupt election, mainly in the same States as 2020

.

[beernut] 10/11/2022 09:27

Erbil to resume talks with Baghdad about the outstanding problems
Kurdistan
erbil
Iraq’s new government
2022-11-09 15:47
A-
A
A+
Shafaq News/ A delegation from the Kurdistan Region is scheduled to pay a new visit to Baghdad as soon as possible to discuss a new round of talks.

The Kurdish Government decided to form a new delegation to resume negotiations with the Iraqi federal Government to resolve the outstanding issues.

The Kurdish delegation includes the Minister of Finance and Economy, the Acting Minister of Natural Resources, the Head of the Cabinet Office, the Secretary of the Council of Ministers, the Head of the Coordination and Follow-up Department, and the Government's Spokesperson.

The Government called the delegation to start discussions as soon as possible within the framework of "constitutional rights, cabinet decisions, and the political agreement that was voted on in the Iraqi parliament."

Earlier, The President of the Diwan of the Kurdish Council of Ministers, Umed Sabah, told Shafaq News Agency that Prime Minister Masrour Barzani directed to form of a delegation to discuss with the federal Government the "rights of the Kurdish component that agreed with the Sunni and Shiite forces in Baghdad."

Negotiations are underway between the two sides to resolve the differences, including oil, the fiscal budget, and the Peshmerga deployment in the disputed areas.

During the Government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi (2018-2020), both sides concluded an agreement that requires Baghdad to pay all the salaries of the Kurdistan Region for the first time since 2014. In return, Erbil would deliver the revenue of 250,000 barrels of oil out of nearly 500,000 barrels that Kurdistan exports independently.

Baghdad said Erbil did not adhere to this agreement almost wholly, while the Kurdish Government confirmed that it fulfilled its promises.

In May 2020, the former PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi decided to stop paying the salaries of the Region's employees, amounting to nearly 500 million dollars per month, due to the financial crisis.

Consequently, the Region's senior officials, including President Nechirvan Barzani and Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, visited Baghdad frequently to find solutions, but s

Another part of the disagreement is the disputed areas.

The Iraqi army forces regained in October 2017 control of the Kirkuk Governorate and the disputed areas, extending across a strip starting east from Diyala, passing through Saladin, and reaching southwest of Nineveh.

The Iraqi Kurdistan used to keep control over all those areas after the collapse of the Iraqi army in 2014 following the attack by ISIS.

Since 2017, security in Kirkuk and the disputed areas has been maintained through multiple federal forces, including the army, the federal police, the counter-terrorism service, and Popular Mobilization Forces.

An announced agreement between Baghdad and Erbil stipulated that four joint security centers be formed in the disputed areas in Kirkuk, Diyala, Makhmur, and Mosul, to cover the vacuum areas between the army and the Peshmerga to prevent ISIS activities. However, the agreement is now suspended, and both sides accuse each other of a lack of responsiveness.

Now, with a new round of talks, many future scenarios are posed for the relationship. But hope was raised by forming a new federal government head by Muhammad Shia'a Al-Sudani.

[releasethekraken] 10/11/2022 08:42

SHAMARAN REPORTS TRANSFORMATIONAL THIRD QUARTER RESULTSVANCOUVER, BC, Nov. 9, 2022 /CNW/ - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. ("ShaMaran" or the "Company") (TSXV: SNM) (Nasdaq First North Growth Market (Sweden): SNM) today released its financial and operating results and related management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022¹. View PDF versionDr. Adel Chaouch, President and Chief Executive Officer of ShaMaran, commented "The third quarter of 2022 was transformational for ShaMaran.  With the closing of the Sarsang Acquisition, we now have stakes in three high quality large producing oil fields (one field in Atrush and two fields in Sarsang) with improved oil qualities and complementary production horizons.  Following the closing of this acquisition, the Company's bonds were merged into one single $300 million issue bond, of which the Company has bought back and owns over 10%.  The strong cash position also enabled ShaMaran to pay in full, 11 months ahead of the original timeline, the $20 million convertible loan note issued to the seller as part of the acquisition consideration. We continue to generate strong financial results as we grow revenue and profits. For the year to date, we have delivered over $100 million in EBITDAX.We are very excited for our future prospects and will continue to execute on our strategic vision to be a best-in-class producer in Kurdistan with sustainable growth, low-leverage and significant cash flow generation.  We have a strong cash position which provides us with flexibility and optionality, and in the current oil price environment, we expect continued strengthening of our financial and operational metrics."Corporate Highlights – the Sarsang AcquisitionOn September 14, 2022 the Company announced the closing of the Sarsang Acquisition. The additional interest in the Sarsang block:adds immediate incremental participating interest production of over 5,000 bopd of light crude oil (36-39° API);is expected to double ShaMaran's average net production by the end of 2022;enhances ShaMaran's oil reserves through the addition of high API and low sulphur oil that achieves a low discount compared to other producers; andthe combined business is forecast to result in a 2022 year end unrestricted cash balance of up to $105 million (up to $155 million when taking into account the bond buybacks and the early repayment of the Convertible Loan Note issued to an affiliate of TotalEnergies SE) 1. This cash balance combined with the $36 million held as restricted cash in line with the 2025 bond agreement is forecast to result in leverage of below 1x net debt to EBITDAX at year end 2022 (pro forma for the Sarsang Acquisition)._____________________________________________1Assuming continued payment by the KRG for crude oil sales invoices within 90 days of receipt.Financial HighlightsThree months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30USD Thousands¹2022202120222021Revenue39,81229,070123,49274,884Gross margin on oil sales28,86012,02090,74737,227Net result66,42819102,6789,322Cash flow from operations28,25012,54492,73240,567EBITDAX32,62616,017100,43647,919The Company delivered oil sales in Q3 2022 of $40 million, 37% higher than Q3 2021;Cash flow from operations for Q3 2022 was $28 million, over twice that of Q3 2021;EBITDAX in Q3 2022 was very strong at $33 million, over double the EBITDAX of Q3 2021;Merger of existing bonds into one single $300 million issue bond, interest on all bonds fully paid on September 26, 2022;During Q3 2022 the Company bought back more of its own bonds, and currently owns in excess of 10% of the 2025 bond; andOn October 3, 2022, the Company announced that it had prepaid, 11 months ahead of the original maturity date, in full (together with applicable interest) the $20 million Convertible Loan Note issued to an affiliate of TotalEnergies SE in connection with the Sarsang Acquisition closing.Operational HighlightsThe 50MM bbl cumulative production milestone for Sarsang was reached during September 2022;During Q3 2022 the commissioning of a new 25,000 bopd facility at Sarsang and commencement of oil export via pipeline from that facility;Q3 2022 gross average production of approximately 71,358 bopd, resulting in 16,206 bopd net to ShaMaran; andQ3 2022 lifting costs per barrel of $4.76 is higher than Q3 2021 lifting costs of $4.34 per barrel. This increase is mainly due to higher diesel prices, but within our 2022 Atrush guidance which takes into account cost inflation.OTHER

[frenchybannedme] 10/11/2022 08:12

ptmorris125 Sep '22 - 14:45 - 661373 of 662773
0 5 0
Muttley " ... and the word on the City streets .. " ahh, that's an anagram of "unsubstantiated rumour"; ish.

[ptmorris1] 10/11/2022 07:59

Those that count the votes dictate who wins an election.

[highlander7] 10/11/2022 05:46

Bloomberg .....

Democratic Party voters breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as the frenzied predictions of a “red wave” by Republicans, pollsters and much of the American media failed to materialize. Indeed, Democrats did much better at the state level than predicted, too. Still, when all the votes are counted, the GOP may take control of both houses of Congress anyway.

[nestoframpers] 09/11/2022 22:58

Delivering 2022 work programme


 Completed SH-15
 Constructed SH-16 & SH-N well pad
 Spud SH-16 targeting start-up towards year-end
 Progressing water handling and facilities expansion
 Increased 2022 net capex guidance to $110-$120 million
 Addition of SH-16 and initial procurement activities related to water handling