Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 24/1/2022 07:27

Why don't GKP undertake Buybacks - really really should do so.....

Dividends are welcome but should be combined with Buybacks...

[howard smith] 24/1/2022 07:22

Shame about the production but nice sweetener with the divi

[fidra] 24/1/2022 07:12

Update in ….

[blgdog] 23/1/2022 23:42

All dusters haha

[nestoframpers] 23/1/2022 18:01

Too much snow to have got on with the 55K work I reckon.

[0ili0] 23/1/2022 13:30

Any weekend wine bar chat? 👂👂👂

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 22/1/2022 14:30

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1484836560008888322?t=5IwC5NQgprjyY7XV7w4BXQ&s=19

[gc321] 22/1/2022 14:12

Thanks for the polite answers guys. Will digest! Luckily I got out before all the nonsense years ago and only recently have amassed a fairly large position at an average of around 206. Definitely feels like something is happening. Good luck all!

[releasethekraken] 22/1/2022 13:37

HTTPS://twitter.com/fairenough11/status/1484795918578765828?s=21

[releasethekraken] 22/1/2022 13:14

HTTPS://twitter.com/zedy78zedy/status/1483929676670287878?s=21

[releasethekraken] 22/1/2022 13:02

HTTPS://twitter.com/111notout1/status/1482447102085148683?s=21

[releasethekraken] 22/1/2022 13:00

240 free cash 28 m arrears 75m debtors book ,increasing fcf extra 30-40m a month.The company will be reporting next week, and I expect , as a minimum some of :.One off large special dividend / dividend policy perhaps quarterly / completed off market buyback / plus or minus an in market buyback program.The company capital structure is hugely distorted in favour of equity over debt.Expect new debt to address that and reward shareholders by very large distribution sPS The company is the most attractive E + P takeover target on Earth.Until the company sees a bid , we are unlikely to move near fair value.Which is significant double figure pounds.

[nobull] 22/1/2022 12:11

GC321,
"Massive capital structure optimisation leveraged via new debt
Equity concentration of 35%

What does that actually mean? Do we benefit as shareholders?"

Whatever it is, the only reason to do it is to add shareholder value, and you do that by having a higher ROCE than your weighted average cost of capital.

Well, I think that is the Terry Smith narrow view of shareholder value creation. A broader view of "shareholder value creation" includes not adding higher returns by adding more risk.

De-equitisation, by substituting debt for equity, may add shareholder value if it is done, in our case, at the right time, with the right interest rate on the extra debt, but choosing the right time is fraught with difficulty, and over the entire oil price cycle it makes our eps more volatile, and it adds more risk.

Unfortunately as I am not God, I can't tell whether "massive capital optimisation" will add shareholder value in the broad sense. Probably not, even if the choice of the word "optimisation" sounds like it should. An alternative question, with the same meaning, could be "is massive de-equitisation going to benefit shareholders?" I get the impression that Terry Smith is cautious about investing in companies whose growth is dependent on playing around with the balance sheet like this.

I am invested here, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, for the uplift in production and for continued high oil prices, and I suppose for the dividends, although I shouldn't be for the latter if I have to pay 50% tax on them, and if the forecasts for the divs to drop off are true (I expect they are true due to the R factor and due to the CRP being exhausted quite quickly due to the high oil prices). I am not expecting a takeover as it is too low a probability event, although low probability events obviously can occur, but you don't take an unmbrella with you on a 0.01 probability of rain. JMV.

[blgdog] 22/1/2022 12:06

You will think there is political
risk until one day there isn’t political
risk. And by the time you think there is no more political risk... GKP would have been long gone.

[loglorry1] 22/1/2022 11:38

I agree it's the cheapest E&P by a long way. I don't agree that it is a bid target. The simple reason is that there is too much political risk. No big oil company exec would risk their job taking over GKP only to then get shafted by the KRG.

I have a big position here and I don't think KRG will shaft us but it's certainly a possibility. Big oil execs are risk-averse.

[bumkin] 22/1/2022 10:56

Sorry GC321, but I'm unable to answer your question. However, I've been here for years and held since December 2009. I don't post much but have asked the odd question or made the occasional observation, but with very limited response/help.

There is a great wealth of knowledge on here which I’ve read over the years but many seem to look at new/occasional posters with suspicion. However, a few do love to interact with some of the Trolls on here, mainly to discredit them or perhaps they just like the craic, however I just filter them. If you are a genuine investor then welcome, if not then that finger can just press the filter. As information goes, we should all help/support new investors as much as we can, as that can only help us reach our end goal.

You should soon figure out who to read and who to filter.

Good Luck.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 22/1/2022 10:21

240 free cash 28 m arrears 75m debtors book ,increasing fcf extra 30-40m a month.The company will be reporting next week, and I expect , as a minimum some of :.One off large special dividend / dividend policy perhaps quarterly / completed off market buyback / plus or minus an in market buyback program.The company capital structure is hugely distorted in favour of equity over debt.Expect new debt to address that and reward shareholders by very large distribution sPS The company is the most attractive E + P takeover target on Earth.Until the company sees a bid , we are unlikely to move near fair value.Which is significant double figure pounds.

[gc321] 22/1/2022 10:20

Thanks for the welcome lol. So sorry for asking what I thought was a genuine question lol. I'm guessing you don't like the person who posted the comment I asked about. I've been invested in this for several months and looking forward to some sort of positive update. Perhaps you should ignore my question and let someone who isnt so self important answer lol.

[broadford bay] 22/1/2022 10:05

hi nobull,

GKP's credo / modus operandi does not seem to have changed very much since Todd's day:

Emphasise the positives and play down (or ignore, or even hide) the negatives.

[nestoframpers] 22/1/2022 09:43

No LTH has replied to GC321's post I wonder why that is.

[nestoframpers] 22/1/2022 09:41

Yes the 2.5% one wasn't up for long.

[highlander7] 22/1/2022 05:12

The new IC investors are turning up

Good to see.
Or would you rather have the three idiots back?
So help them .

H7

[0ili0] 21/1/2022 22:02

Nesto - the best posts have probably been removed 😉