Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 17:04

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1479047429097988097?t=N-JRaK617KsgUxU9ogKsYQ&s=19

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 17:04

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[nobull] 06/1/2022 16:58

You both do it, because you can't be caught, and it's highly profitable. It has to be GKP because there is no stamp duty, because it has decent trading volumes and it has a highly volatile share price (the speculative risk rating). I get all that.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 16:52

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1479047429097988097?t=N-JRaK617KsgUxU9ogKsYQ&s=19

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 16:52

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[nobull] 06/1/2022 16:49

"ALLBULL is only here because no one listens to him anywhere else. Most of LSE have him on filter. I suggest you all do the same on here."



The consensus analysts' eps forecasts drop off in 2023. You sound frustrated you can't scam more people from your "anywhere but Surrey" bolt hole, especially from a place with no extradition treaty for what you are attempting to do.

Canaccord Genuity's price target of £2.95 seems reasonable for a successful outcome to the 55k bopd production expansion project.

I get that the eps forecasts aren't to your liking for what you and your multiavatar mate are up to.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 16:46

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1479047429097988097?t=N-JRaK617KsgUxU9ogKsYQ&s=19

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 16:46

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[hydrocarbon1] 06/1/2022 16:36

16:35:18 202.00 2,417 4,882 A
16:35:18 202.00 143,661 290.20k UT

[pensioner2] 06/1/2022 16:34

Valentines day. It's the only one which isn't a bank holiday. :-)

[goatcam] 06/1/2022 16:28

Paul, what date can I take takeover to the bank? Valentines day? Easter? Queens Platinum jubilee?

[goatcam] 06/1/2022 16:28

Paul, what date can I take takeover to the bank? Valentines day? Easter? Queens Platinum jubilee?

[johnbuysghost] 06/1/2022 16:20

Whispers from the long covid wharf queue say that GKP is all but sold.

[officerdigby] 06/1/2022 16:09

Highlander.PSCs changing you hear? For the good or for worse?And how where do you hear these things?TIA.

[nobull] 06/1/2022 15:52

"Optimise capital structure - they are saying it"

But they didn't say do a leveraged recapitalisation. "Opitimise capital structure" can mean return excess capital as well as change the mix of debt finance and equity capital. It could also mean issue new debt at a lower interest rate than the existing debt, like Genel did.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 15:33

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 15:32

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[jeremyscatamite] 06/1/2022 15:29

They move in to the likes of Kazakhstan because they get good contracts and high profits. They dont like the KRG PSC's which is partly the reason they stay away.

Hopefully that is just about to change from what I hear.

Paul

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 15:21

Optimise capital structure...they saying it LOLOLLeveraged Recapitalization is a strategy where a company takes on significant additional debt with the purpose of either paying a large dividend or repurchasing shares. The result is a far more financially leveraged company -- usually in excess of the "optimal" debt capacity. After the large dividend has been paid, the market value of the shares will drop. A share is referred to as a "stub" when a financial recap results in the decline if its price to 25% or less of its previous market value. In a successful recap the value of the dividend plus the value of the stub exceeds the pre-recap share price.The simplest measure of value added comes from the tax shield gained when a firm, which has debt capacity resulting from free cash flows in excess of ongoing needs, increases its leverage. The classic Modigliani-Miller calcuation of the present value of the tax shield is obtained by multiplying the amount of debt by the tax rate of the firm. Other results of leverage include the disciplinary effects of having to meet debt service payments, and the possible negative effects of the costs of financial distress.The technique can be used, and has been used, as a "shark repellant" to ward off a hostile takeover, actual or potential. This is done by adding debt, eliminating idle cash and debt capacity. Prospective bidders would face the daunting task of returning the firm to leverage ratios closer to historical industry levels. The recap may also give management a higher percentage of share ownership and control. Although such recaps are designed as a takeover defense, a high percentage of firms that adopt them are subsequently acquired

[nobull] 06/1/2022 15:15

Paul, I agree that a leveraged recapitalisation can increase the BoD's voting power, but a bidder just has to pay more for the newly enlarged amount of debt and less for the newly reduced, smaller amount of total equity remaining in issue, unless the shares re-rate for some other reason. An LC on its own without a subsequent re-rating of the shares prior to a bid is useless.

Our BoD has put in very little of its own money compared with the enormous salaries they get. The Chairman hasn't put a cent in, ever - how shameful is that? He couldn't even be bothered when the oil price curve was in contango.

JH, GS, IW, and Monsieur Papineau Legris have put in a bit, but the rest are only exposed to the upside, not to the downside, through the VCP, etc. Their combined total potential holding looks too insignificant to be worth the bother of trying to use a leveraged recapitalisation to defend from a takeover bid. Besides if they use debt to buy before a de-rating or before a swing into losses, they will destroy value.

I get that you want people to believe in an imminent takeover so you can trade against them, but the best reason (for the most probable outcome) is to buy for an increase in production that has not yet been priced in (the low FY2022 PE) even though acid stimulation of SH-13 is likely to be successful in making SH-13 flow. AIMO. DYOR.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 14:38

Leveraged Recapitalization is a strategy where a company takes on significant additional debt with the purpose of either paying a large dividend or repurchasing shares. The result is a far more financially leveraged company -- usually in excess of the "optimal" debt capacity. After the large dividend has been paid, the market value of the shares will drop. A share is referred to as a "stub" when a financial recap results in the decline if its price to 25% or less of its previous market value. In a successful recap the value of the dividend plus the value of the stub exceeds the pre-recap share price.The simplest measure of value added comes from the tax shield gained when a firm, which has debt capacity resulting from free cash flows in excess of ongoing needs, increases its leverage. The classic Modigliani-Miller calcuation of the present value of the tax shield is obtained by multiplying the amount of debt by the tax rate of the firm. Other results of leverage include the disciplinary effects of having to meet debt service payments, and the possible negative effects of the costs of financial distress.The technique can be used, and has been used, as a "shark repellant" to ward off a hostile takeover, actual or potential. This is done by adding debt, eliminating idle cash and debt capacity. Prospective bidders would face the daunting task of returning the firm to leverage ratios closer to historical industry levels. The recap may also give management a higher percentage of share ownership and control. Although such recaps are designed as a takeover defense, a high percentage of firms that adopt them are subsequently acquired

[dalesmann] 06/1/2022 14:26

They move in to the likes of Kazakhstan because they get good contracts and high profits. They dont like the KRG PSC's which is partly the reason they stay away.

Hopefully that is just about to change from what I hear.

Paul

[highlander7] 06/1/2022 14:04

They move in to the likes of Kazakhstan because they get good contracts and high profits. They dont like the KRG PSC's which is partly the reason they stay away.

Hopefully that is just about to change from what I hear.

H7

[goatcam] 06/1/2022 14:00

Same with Libya.... and yet some of the majors have no problem with buying stakes in those oilfields... political risk with Kurdistan was always overstated

[highlander7] 06/1/2022 13:53

Kazakhstan was a disaster waiting to happen because of the blatant government corruption stealing ALL the oil Revenue. Makes Kurdistan look like Disneyworld.