Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[pensioner2] 06/1/2022 13:47

It's 82.5 now, beernut.

[highlander7] 06/1/2022 13:22

ALLBULL is only here because no one listens to him anywhere else. Most of LSE have him on filter. I suggest you all do the same on here.

H7

[henrygondorff] 06/1/2022 13:07

The real poster.

dalesman1 Aug '11 - 15:51 - 100013 of 647549
0 0 0
I'm afraid your unrealistic expectation that the share price will fall to £1.20 is indeed unrealistic.

The fraud.

dalesmann6 Jan '22 - 09:36 - 647534 of 647549
0 0 0
GKP > 200 day moving ave. This is about deep value though.c.$70m just received, cash was already $176m in Dec. Monthly cash receipts will absolutely soar in due course as production materially jumps (tgt:this month).Expecting impactful buybacks on top of leading sector divi also.

[gazebo79] 06/1/2022 12:43

Well p2.lets hope for a gamestop type moment.why not.Gl all

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 12:37

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1478285558472454145?t=0Kn7IvAC9d_lgL5qMBysXw&s=19

[pensioner2] 06/1/2022 12:36

I can't see the point of giving credence to that source, nobull, seeing as they can't even get the actual dividend for 2021 right. Why would their guess for 2023 be any better?

[banker8] 06/1/2022 12:29

Not the same without condog think I might aswell sell up now

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 12:24

Paid basher alert and that's noBS :)What has happened to the lead basher CONDOG?Over 27,300 negative posts here.He's either been putdown or no longer needed by his employers

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 12:22

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1479047429097988097?t=N-JRaK617KsgUxU9ogKsYQ&s=19

[nobull] 06/1/2022 12:17

Off topic to the "spam, scam and sham", "shove out conspiracy theory nonsense", multiavatar poster, especially the one who believes in secret proxy buybacks and oxymorons such as "leveraged recapitalisations": without a re-rating, the cake size stays the same; that is, the cake is just divided up differently between shareholders and prior ranking creditors. A £2.95 price target doesn't seem unreasonable given the forecast drop off in divs and eps in 2023.

[pensioner2] 06/1/2022 12:15

Looks like "the market" has decided it's game on with gkp.

[goatcam] 06/1/2022 11:59

blimey what is the delay with updating the top 10 shareholders !

[pngasef] 06/1/2022 11:48

Beautiful!!

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 11:13

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1479047429097988097?t=N-JRaK617KsgUxU9ogKsYQ&s=19

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 10:55

Normally is.Buy back?Still no shareholder update.Still no CONDOG :)The most value accretive action the company could have taken these past 5 years, was to buy as much of its own stock as cheaply as possible, discreetly , that would have required a proxy doing it for them..Let's see

[lifeson] 06/1/2022 10:52

Brent at $82.

Ops / corporate update mid Jan?

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 10:31

40,000 buy at 205.02

[dalesmann] 06/1/2022 09:36

GKP > 200 day moving ave. This is about deep value though.c.$70m just received, cash was already $176m in Dec. Monthly cash receipts will absolutely soar in due course as production materially jumps (tgt:this month).Expecting impactful buybacks on top of leading sector divi also.

[mr_todd_f_kozel] 06/1/2022 09:21

HTTPS://twitter.com/baroninvestment/status/1478356547025752070?t=x2LNYxexajGGmmwSdmmSjw&s=19

[dalesmann] 06/1/2022 09:17

The incoming deal IMO bodes well for GKP, especially in light of the recent ICG deal supplying South Korea directly with 250,000 bopd as a 'emergency supply'. ...this supply could be just the very start of things ! Remember this figure accounts only for around 10% of South Koreas oil need's which is fastly approaching 1 Bln barrels per year


All the above fuss over $3.5 Bln offered for 150 Mln bbls of reserves.
...Put's things into future perspective when Shaikan alone could well hold 5 Bln bbls of reserves thus entitling GKP to ~2.5 Bln bbls. This is over 16X the amount of oil that Pertamina and other's are bidding for in Block 31's stake.
Least we forget too - future production mooted by TK to be around 500,000 bopd alone from Shaikan with considerably lower Opex costs.

From the AGM we know GKP will receive "north of 6% Net" entitlement as part of the PSC after cost recovery, the 10% royalty tax and the 40% ISP take.
So, it's fair to assume that let's say 6.5% Net would derive GKP just shy of $7/bbl with Brent priced around $105/bbl long term.

[dalesmann] 06/1/2022 09:16

It's been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets.

A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption.

As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well.

Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post.

We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months.

Lets have a look at how the company stands right now.

To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to



Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34

A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene.

We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price

The current market cap is 62.7m

We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share.

A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number.

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34

The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic.

Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015.

They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership.

Lets look at the position before any farm in.

The Summary Page encapsulates all this information.

Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%.

Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P.

The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc.

Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11

based on a $65 long term oil price assumption.

If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27

If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price.

All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole.

The management options vest at £1.14

However…..

It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture.

I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue.

The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin.

Double click on the image to see full size.

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03

The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above)

This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category.

My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued.

The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed!

We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price

The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios .

Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments.

Hope that helps

Kind regards

Phil

I hold

Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.

[goatcam] 05/1/2022 22:23

I’ll go to china and order some rotisserie Dog