Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[goatcam] 29/10/2021 21:40

Goatcam says the auction has already happened. Takeover imminent

[pensioner2] 29/10/2021 21:12

Well someone has been aggressively buying what they can all week and that would indicate an oil major if it chimes with your article above, Steepy. Maybe there is an auction going on?

[steephill cove] 29/10/2021 21:05

And the likes of 🐕🐕🐕🐕8021;; 🛢🤠 & 👰‍a92;️🍩try to tell us that GKP is worthless, when the cost per Barrel from Shaikan is less than 10 per cent of the majors cost per BOE @ $26.40 mentioned in that last article #644211

🤣🤣🤣🤣9315;

[nestoframpers] 29/10/2021 20:47

Sounds like a auction to me , they are desperate.

[steephill cove] 29/10/2021 20:23

Don't rely on the Oil Majors to smoothly deliver the World's transition from fossil fuels to renewables.

Despite collectively doubling their upstream capital spending during the last decade, they were still unable to increase production or get remotely close to replacing it with new reserves. Consequently, their cost to find and develop a new barrel of reserve nearly doubled to $26.40.

The Incredible Shrinking Oil Majors - Goehring & Rozencwajg / Nat Resource Investors

'Oil production growth outside of OPEC+ and the US shales has been extremely difficult to achieve even before the recent ESG pressures. Over the last 20 years, oil supermajors Exxon, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have found it challenging to maintain their reserve base and production level.

Even though upstream capital spending has surged, production and reserves have persistently declined. As ESG pressures constrain upstream spending, both oil reserves and production at these four companies will likely enter severe declines. Because of the tremendous corporate dislocation created by the 2010 Macondo oil spill, we have left BP out of this study.

Since 2000, every oil supermajor has targeted 5% production growth. Not only were these growth projections far too ambitious, two of the four supermajors are now actually smaller than they were 20 years ago. Exxons upstream production is down 12% while Royal Dutch Shell is down 9%. Only Total and Chevron have distinguished themselves by showing any annual production growth at all 1.7% and 0.6% CAGR respectively since 2020.

Proved oil and gas reserves paint the same picture. Exxons reserves are 27% lower while Royal Dutch Shells are 56% lower and Chevrons are 3% lower. Only Total has grown at all over the last 20 years: its proved oil and gas reserves are 14% greater than in 2000.

Things look significantly worse if you focus only on crude oil. While Exxons crude oil production has declined by 8% over the last 20 years (in line with gas production), Royal Dutch Shells crude production has collapsed by 20% while Chevrons has fallen by 7%. While Total is once again the only company to show any growth, it has been modest: oil production is up 0.8% CAGR over the last 20 years.

Proved oil reserves tell a similar story. Exxons proved oil reserves are down 26% while Royal Dutch Shells have collapsed by 57% and Chevrons have fallen 29%. Even Totals proved oil reserves have contracted by 16% since 2000.

Reserves have fallen faster than production, causing the reserve-to-production ratio (R/P) to decline. Exxons R/P for total proved reserves fell from 10.1x in 2000 to 8.4x by 2020 while Royal Dutch Shells ratio fell from 14.6x to 7.4x and Chevrons fell from 11.9x to 9.9x. Even Total was unable to halt the decline of its R/P ratio. Despite reserves growing, production grew more causing their total proved reserve R/P ratio to fall from 13.8x in 2000 to 11.1x by 2020.

Once again, focusing only on oil is even worse. While all four supermajors saw their total proved R/P ratios fall by 26% on average, their oil-only proved R/P ratios fell by 30%. Of the four companies, only Exxons proved oil R/P ratio remained above 10 in 2020.

While these upstream metrics alone point to a challenging future for the supermajors, when you factor in the massive capital spending that took place over the last decade, the true severity of the situation becomes clear.

Between 2000 and 2010, the four supermajors spent $615 bn on upstream capital expenditures. Over the same period, they produced 50.3 bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and found 41.1 bn boe of new reserves, resulting in a reserve replacement ratio of 86% (not very good) at an average finding and development cost of $14.30 per boe.

Between 2010 and 2020, upstream capital expenditures surged to $1.15 tr. Over the same time, the companies produced 50.6 bn boe and found 43.3 bn boe of new reserves very much in line with the decade prior. Even though upstream capital spending nearly doubled, the companies were still unable to replace production with new reserves. In fact, reserve replacement was unchanged at 85% despite the increase in spending. As a result, the cost to find and develop a new barrel of reserve nearly doubled from $14.30 per boe to $26.40.

These numbers highlight the challenges facing the supermajors. With the addition of ESG pressures, the future for these companies has gone from challenged to incredibly bleak.

[pensioner2] 29/10/2021 19:28

Chartwise I would think it's a bit uncertain, NOR. There's an inverted hammer on the weekly but the daily is a bit weak imo. I think we need another day's trade to see if there's any predictable signs. Having said that, the inverted hammer on the weekly might kick off a trend reversal but, as we've said before, there are so many extraneous factors around Gulf that charting is probably a waste of effort. Lord knows how Sbb1x and crew make any money out of this. The only plus is that the deep pockets who control it create opportunities for us mortals when they get greedy, as they are at the moment. 66k of afters now - and all this effort for a puddle of tar.

[nestoframpers] 29/10/2021 19:03

Technically we have a hammer on the weekly , I say that has the final share price would have been higher were there plenty of shares to buy . This made the tail shorter than it might have been.

[nestoframpers] 29/10/2021 18:50

MMs did well today then. It's a dark art , they tried to put a stop to it 100 years ago , read about it in " Come inside my trading room ".

[attyg] 29/10/2021 18:46

Glad Friday is over as it seems to me that the share price has gone down most Fridays for a rather long period.

Interesting that the API crude levels registered an increase in volume during the week. I remember reading somewhere (here or elsewhere) that the US is curtailing crude exports as they want to ensure sufficient oil at home. Clearly a political slant in all this. The US want to keep the price of oil down while Biden gets his spending plan through Congress and the Senate - Green is good and oil is not going up in cost. I'm all for green, but we still require oil.

Of course, the rest of the world - particularly Asia - still require more and more oil, so I remain of the view the price has more to go and GKP will be coining it in for the forseeable.

Roll on Monday.

[shortsqueezer] 29/10/2021 17:53

They're picking off the weaker divi reinvestors. Not gaining them much though is it.

[pensioner2] 29/10/2021 17:39

And still they're stuffing their faces. Another 45k gone through after the closed sign went up.

[lifeson] 29/10/2021 17:17

Yes GoatCam and most likely another $50M divi before year end. If not sold, it is highly conceivable that we could see £1 per share per year in the not too distant future.

Note to MMs and trolls:-

1. Long termers will not sell a single share anywhere near current share price levels.
2. They are in to the end and will take and most will reinvest every divi they receive.

So please feel free to drop the share price as low as possible.

Thank you in advance.

=============================================================================

GoatCam 29 Oct '21 - 16:53 - 644202 of 644202 0 5 0

Remember ladies and gentleman.... another $28/$29 million payment due next week!

[goatcam] 29/10/2021 16:53

Remember ladies and gentleman.... another $28/$29 million payment due next week!

[k4n4k] 29/10/2021 16:45

🦁🦁🦁the weak holders getting eaten now. 🦁🦁🦁

[pensioner2] 29/10/2021 16:43

The accumulators have picked up a good few today, Sbb1x. Future price depends upon whether they've finished and/or news timing.

[sbb1x] 29/10/2021 16:37

Interesting close below 200.

[pensioner2] 29/10/2021 16:28

Stop ramping, Muttley. You've gone from 40p to £1.25p and, even allowing for the poo rise, that's blatant ramping.

[hydrocarbon1] 29/10/2021 16:21

Since I have been back he has totally made a mug of you. Everyone can see that but yourself.
Nobody cares what goes on in your mind.
Kerching Kerching

[bigdog5] 29/10/2021 16:17

I note that the share price has gone sub 2p. Good job the OP has risen massively as otherwise it would be 1.25 or even less based on the latest CPR imho.

[bigdog5] 29/10/2021 16:13

You think that's correct hydro?

Just look back, I've been destroying habSCAM's excuses for years for being just made up BS. His excuses may sit well with you clueless clowns but not with those of us that know the reality.

The desperation that oozes out from you morons is comical.