Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[cnpc_loves_gkp] 01/3/2021 17:11

LSEWell, they making so much cash , without even trying , in fact deliberately not trying!!( 20m capex planned for 2021, is tiny , ) then the way forward points to a sale of Shaikan or the company as a strong possibilities.DNO/GNL are forecasting significant capex in contrast.These reserves are enormous.Got to be of interest to bigger players.Lets see how things go.

[sbb1x] 01/3/2021 16:49

Should ......payment news lands tomorrow with some back dated monies owed and we are talking 188/190Looking forward to oil data tomorrow night with a draw of anything upto 10 million barrels gone.Big love x

[pensioner2] 01/3/2021 16:28

Are you sure about that, Sbb? You did say today last week.

[sbb1x] 01/3/2021 16:19

Payment news lands tomorrow with some back dated monies owed and we are talking 188/190Looking forward to oil data tomorrow night with a draw of anything upto 10 million barrels gone.Big love x

[highlander7] 01/3/2021 15:53

Sounds like you might finally be right CNPC.

LOL

[cnpc_loves_gkp] 01/3/2021 15:37

McFly just broken a mere 3,004+ lolBIGDOG Closing in on 26,000Will he get there before the Sale RNS?25,950 posts from the BIGDOG,BLACK ROCK now have acquired 5.36% over 11,250,000 and increasing,Is it a pile of xcz&£, because almost 29,000 ++ negative posts by avatars says so ? Or do you follow the REAL MONEY ?LOL

[cnpc_loves_gkp] 01/3/2021 15:25

They haven't set a date for FY results as yet, which is odd , as by now they would have normally , and of course all peers have done so several weeks ago.Could be just lazy administration, maybe its because other news may be in advance.Either way before or after, I expect some substantive updates as the company remains in a crazy but highly profitable limbo.They are generating a great deal of monthly free cash, they hold a large cash balance, and could access at least $200m more from debt facilities.But they choose not to use any of this to grow the business by increasing production, investing a paltry $20m 2021 capex.If POO continues its rise they may soon be generating that in free cash every month!So we will see some of these possibilities at or before FY results.Listed in my personal view of likelihood.Dividend 25-50 mBuyback in the market 50m plusA completion of an accelerated share repurchase agreement for up to 25% of issueDeal on 73m arrears possibly by an improved WI PSCFarm in and FDP approvalReserve based lending facility and FDP , GKP take it forward aloneSale of Shaikan as an asset in whole or part, re assigned operatorshipFriendly takeoverHostile approachLook forward to seeing what happens.

[mcfly02] 01/3/2021 15:09

Bravedog,

I wasn't aware that I needed to be here for you everyday.

Are you missing realistic information and that's why you need me here ???

I got a full update over the weekend and I'm not very excited unlike some.

GoatCam, doesn't need multiple avatars 🙂

[highlander7] 01/3/2021 15:02

Well that would explain why Doggie , and the rest of them , are getting over excited.

[bravedog] 01/3/2021 13:43

No new options for the VCP can be awarded, but the Nil Cost Options are subject to the rules of the VCP and will normally vest depending on performance against Total Shareholder Return targets.

The share price used on the Measurement Date for calculating total shareholder shall be the average of the closing prices for the 30 days following the announcement of the Company's results for the relevant financial year.

But we must remind us that there is a hurdle to be crossed. It was :
2017: 350*1.08=378 mio$
2018: 378*1.08=408 mio$ (options awarded at 2.346$)
2019: 408*1.08=441 mio$ (options awarded at 3.315$)
2020: 441*1.08=476 mio$
So for this year, it will be
2021: 476*1.08=514 mio$ (=2.448$)

We are already there as on Friday, GUKYF closed at 2.54 $.

So when an agreement is reached with Baghdad, the price will be much higher and the options will vest, meaning that 30 days later JF and SZ will show up at the AGM as big shareholders with 3% of the equity.

This is the last thing the Kurds want is to see and that is why GKP must be taken out prior to the publication of the annual results.

[pensioner2] 01/3/2021 13:36

Come on, Mutters. Give us that smile again. We don't want the gloom. Spring is on the way. Gloriously sunny and calm over here. :-)

[habshan] 01/3/2021 13:33

You've been saying all that for the last year Sarah.

When you said we were heading for oblivion and wipeout:-

"40p tomorrow on its way to oblivion. Wipeout Mk2 on the way."

Sounds as though you've got it all round your neck doesn't it.

Sp - 173.3p.

[bigdog5] 01/3/2021 13:09

There's been you Paul and highlander7.

Its amusing that there's excitement about an oil agreement like so many of you have done over the past 10 years but will it last. How long before the accusations kick off and the agreement goes down the dunny.

As for Koruptistan ramping up oil production will the producers spend money if the hosts can't be trusted to pay them? Or make up new rules that will inevitably favour them as usual.

Btw the Kon zel don't exist.

The proof is the numbers if everything was "all fine" should have been increasing over the years not standing still or decreasing.

Four CPR's have all said virtually the same except for the recent one that you delusional fantasists expected massive numbers from, notwithstanding that a few of us were telling you it won't happen. Another reinterpretation has come out with lower numbers. This is up to date data which completely dismisses all the reports from the Kon zel days.

There's clear evidence of the problems the company have experienced since the great shareholder wipeout of 2016 notwithstanding all the excuses put forward.

The latest discoveries at S12/S13 that have forced the company and rightfully so to downgrade the Jurassic Reserves. Just like at S6 aka the water well it just doesn't wash to keep with the drilling fluid excuse.

The time its taken to get back to 40k a day and the 55k that keeps going backwards. The time it took to do the first workover well when it was supposed to be a simple 7 day job which took 10 times as long. The fact that the ESP's that were in the plans 5 years ago haven't been installed across the wells. Join the clues up fantasists.

In the five years of JF's tenure the company didn't refer to even a very small fraction of the Kon zel BS ramped up barrels. The reason is simple, they don't exist and therefore they can't refer to them. Its got naff all to do with habSCUM's BS about it only has to cover any FDP.

They put out hyped up plans to suggest all is just great but the evidence is all there that its a long way from that. They say they understand the field but clearly they don't as S9 that went looking for the gas cap that you all thought was a slam dunk which a few of us said would fail, failed. Then there's S12/S13 that were targeted for the lower depths but found stuff they really weren't expecting.

As I and a few others keep saying its not what they say its what they don't say that is the key issues. The spin and hype has worn very thin. Even stuff like the 80% WI and the GKPI percentage. Rather ambiguous I would suggest.

Just a mull?

[beernut] 01/3/2021 12:28

Looking good for Thursday budget vote.
Gla

Erbil-Baghdad Talks Aim to Achieve Favorable Deal for Both: Iraqi PM
Basnews English 2021/03/01 - 14:02 Kurdistan


ERBIL — The ongoing dialogue between Kurdish Region delegations and the federal government aims to achieve the partnership that Erbil and Baghdad aspire for, said Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

In an interview with Asharq Al Awsat, PM Kadhimi said the current relations between the Kurdistan Region and Iraqi federal government are not what both sides desire based on the Constitution, and that dialogues are ongoing to meet the demands from both sides.

“The ongoing dialogue between Kurdish Region delegations and the federal government aims to achieve the partnership that we aspire for with our brothers in Kurdistan. We want to achieve the goals of the Kurds as we do the goals of Iraqis throughout the country,” the Iraqi premier said.

“The government has helped eliminate differences with the Kurdistan Region. Everything ultimately hinges on what the parliament decides on the budget and other issues,” he explained about the 2021 budget bill that is now waiting for parliament’s approval.

Kadhimi noted that his government believes that meeting commitments in line with the constitution and resolving any dispute with Kurdistan is a primary factor in the recovery of the political life, consolidating stability and defeating terrorism and all other forces that want to harm Iraq.

[beernut] 01/3/2021 12:21

We have had no trolls at all this am. ?

[bravedog] 01/3/2021 11:41

I see that oilman Tony, bigdog5 and BB are gone.

My guess:

A board meeting will hire them, allowing them to be awarded nil-cost options in accordance with the amended LTIP

Perhaps they take the consultant Tony as Investor Relations. He’ll have to explain why the RNS
mentioning the tender of a 450,000 bpd heavy fuel oil pipe has disappeared from their website.

[highlander7] 01/3/2021 10:59

Both the KRG/ICG are trying to qualify for IMF loans. The IMF/World Bank tho is effectively controlled by the USA. Who will , in all probability, make a deal a prerequisite for any cash.

It is finally looking like it will happen.

IMO

[nestoframpers] 01/3/2021 10:32

3 weeks for re rate of Dinar , it will all happen then IMO.

[shortsqueezer] 01/3/2021 08:58

After the budget agreement

[pensioner2] 01/3/2021 08:55

Where is the payment?

[beernut] 01/3/2021 08:42

Last line. “Drive prices very high very fast”

Socar Trading projects oil prices to hit $80 in 2021
By ANDY HOFFMAN on 2/22/2021

(Bloomberg) --Oil prices will hit $80 a barrel this year as demand comes roaring back and producers won’t be able to immediately respond with sufficient supply, Socar Trading SA said, joining a chorus of bullish calls on the market.

Hayal Ahmadzada, Socar’s chief trading officer, said the glut of excess oil stocks that built up in 2020 in response to the pandemic will be fully drawn down by the summer. At the same time, soaring prices for steel used in pipes, wells and fittings as well as the high cost of capital for producers will crimp a meaningful supply response by an already hobbled industry even as demand returns.

“I will not be surprised if we see $80 a barrel in summer or before year-end and above $100 a barrel in the next 18 to 24 months,” Ahmadzada said in an interview from Baku, Azerbaijan.

The global trading arm of the government-controlled State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, Geneva-based Socar Trading is one of the world’s biggest energy trading houses, handling around 1 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products, giving it keen insight into global energy supply and demand.

Socar joins larger rival Trafigura in calling a bull run for oil and most products. Crude has gained more than 20% this year after Saudi Arabia’s pledge to deepen production curbs turbocharged a rally triggered by Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs.

Ahmadzada said Socar had already sold all of the oil it stored during the crisis, as much as 15 million barrels.

The Azeri national and veteran trader said soaring steel prices means oil services contractors will struggle to build pipes, wells and other infrastructure needed to bring back production on time and on budget. That will slow the supply response even as demand returns as countries emerge from lockdowns and other restrictions.

“We may see a shake-out in that industry, due to very high steel prices,” he said.

Ahmadzada added he expects the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which includes Russia, to taper production cuts and return to pumping crude at full tilt soon. Even so, it won’t be enough, he said.

Even with Saudi Arabia and Texas producing, “the fear is that in 12 months there will be a shortage,” he said. “It will drive the price very high very fast.”

[sbb1x] 01/3/2021 08:39

I'm guessing we will get a back payment with latest payment. 190 this week

[beernut] 01/3/2021 06:20

If the above happens it will be the first time in 7/8/9 years that kurdistan has been paid their budget.
Then they will want to ramp up oil production so all oil over 250k barrels is their own. 💰
This should bring M and A from big Oil co’s.
Gla

[beernut] 01/3/2021 06:13

Sounds very promising 😀

The Budget bill will be voted upon by the end of this week, MP confirms
Iraq News
breaking
Al-Fatah
2021-02-28 19:55
A- A A+
Shafaq News / The Al-Fatah Parliamentary Bloc confirmed that the General Budget Law for 2021 will be voted upon by the end of this week, indicating that the Kurdistan Region’s share issue will be solved in the next few days.

MP of al-Fatah, Fadel Al-Fatlawi, said in an interview with Shafaq News agency, "meetings and negotiations are still ongoing between the political blocs and the Kurdish delegation to settle the share of the Kurdistan Region in the General Budget Law for 2021."

He added, "Intensive meetings will take place next Tuesday to settle the share of the Kurdistan Region in the budget law."

Last December, Baghdad, and Erbil reached an agreement on the financial budget, stipulating that the region should hand over 250 thousand barrels of oil per day, and half of the border crossings revenues (and other non-oil revenues) to the federal government, in exchange for a share in the budget of 12.6%.

[beernut] 01/3/2021 06:12

Sounds very promising 😀

The Budget bill will be voted upon by the end of this week, MP confirms
Iraq News
breaking
Al-Fatah
2021-02-28 19:55
A- A A+
Shafaq News / The Al-Fatah Parliamentary Bloc confirmed that the General Budget Law for 2021 will be voted upon by the end of this week, indicating that the Kurdistan Region’s share issue will be solved in the next few days.

MP of al-Fatah, Fadel Al-Fatlawi, said in an interview with Shafaq News agency, "meetings and negotiations are still ongoing between the political blocs and the Kurdish delegation to settle the share of the Kurdistan Region in the General Budget Law for 2021."

He added, "Intensive meetings will take place next Tuesday to settle the share of the Kurdistan Region in the budget law."

Last December, Baghdad, and Erbil reached an agreement on the financial budget, stipulating that the region should hand over 250 thousand barrels of oil per day, and half of the border crossings revenues (and other non-oil revenues) to the federal government, in exchange for a share in the budget of 12.6%.