Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[welshki] 13/2/2019 10:40

"Oilman has been proven right on so many occasions"

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[gkp_banggone] 13/2/2019 09:16

🌞😜SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19ðŸ'ŒYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈

[gkp_banggone] 13/2/2019 09:16

====From IR 16th January 2019:-"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007. Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."=====+The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[mcfly02] 13/2/2019 09:15

Good Morning 😃

I see HabscamScot trying to peddle his agenda and make Oilman a dirty word.

The only problem is HabscamScot is that Oilman has been proven right on so many occasions and you have been left looking the fool.

You read the signals from GKP wrongly and you have been left holding the Chinese baby with egg on your face yet again.

[habshan] 13/2/2019 08:33

"I too know that the company was looking at another deal last year - not in the Kurdistan area of Iraq, in fact not in the ME."

BroadfordBay.

Oilman tells us of the importance of providing links or some other substantiation when you make statements like that:-

Oilman - "where does it say what you say?"

So Broadford, where does it say what you say.

Or is it just more made up tosh that Oilman's been whispering in your ear.

Like this for instance:-

"but then almost everything you and your other iterations spout is untrue and inherently fraudulent."

"From what I have been told about you..."

You've spent a lot of time telling us about issues with funding our current and future investment programmes to 100kbpd Broadford.

"I see the endless, mindless ramping continues, MOL said this..., MOL said that..., path to 110 completely self-funding...!"

"Being self-financing depends completely on the oil price remaining relatively stable, being higher than the upper 50s, and on output quickly being brought up to (or exceeding) previous levels."

And this from only three months ago:- "bigdog, your remark about a placing agrees with my view, held for a long time,"

Being the prudent boring manager that he is, Ferrier held off on the investment programme until last June because he wanted to be sure that it would be self funding. In view of the company's past the last thing he wanted was to find himself in the embarrassing position of having to go back to the market for more debt.

Now you're telling us that at the same time the Board were looking at acquisitions.

If you knew last year that the Board had been looking at acquisitions then why did you think there was a problem with funding, and why didn't you mention it in your posts.

You're a troll Broadford. Pensioner is right, you're completely crackers.

Like your two Amigos you just make it up as you go along.

[shiv1986] 13/2/2019 08:00

Have you seen the poll about GKP on Twitter by ADVFN?

[stockport loser] 12/2/2019 23:05

Or 6 days before you and sad sack are looking fools again

[nestoframpers] 12/2/2019 22:41

You can tell CNPN's 19th Feb TO prediction is really getting to the trolls. 6 Days to go .

[mcfly02] 12/2/2019 22:29

Good Evening Jamie.

I know of two plus the Africa trip.

[bigdog5] 12/2/2019 21:48

That's interesting as there were rumours floating around the City that the company were looking at the possibility of acquiring licences elsewhere.

It's clear and has been for a very long time that the company should have been spending huge amounts of money ramping up their only asset which they'd neglected since the restructure 31 months ago.

Are we to conclude that they don't really believe the asset is that good? Or that relations with the hosts are that poor that there was no point in spending? Are there any clues in that it takes an age to get anything through the MNR, like the PSC amendment for instance. There does appear to be a great reluctance to get on with what's required n'est ce pas.

In respect of the working interest isn't it strange that only the view from Trevanian gets posted here whereas the correct view as made by MikeyT21 doesn't? The lengths posters go to just to try and get more suckers to help them out with their losses:-) Fake news and all that.

[broadford bay] 12/2/2019 21:41

I too know that the company was looking at another deal last year - not in the Kurdistan area of Iraq, in fact not in the ME.

I'm surprised you hadn't heard of that, HabscamScot.

Lots of stuff you don't pick up in your echo chamber...

Good evening macfly!

[mcfly02] 12/2/2019 21:30

HabscamScot, 😂😂😂

So Gullible !!!