Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mcfly02] 12/2/2019 16:47

HabscamScot,

I really don't think I'm as thick as two short planks.

I'm not the one desperately trying to convince everyone about the Chinese under many names.

[habshan] 12/2/2019 16:24

"So if we have a substantial working interest according to HabscamScot shouldn't there be a massive increase in the monthly payments ???"

Oilman.

You really are as thick as two short planks.

[mcfly02] 12/2/2019 16:17

So if we have a substantial working interest according to HabscamScot shouldn't there be a massive increase in the monthly payments ???

I'm not seeing any evidence of this anywhere other than blog speculation.

I agree with Jamie.

I think people have forgotten the conference in Erbil in April.

[habshan] 12/2/2019 16:00

BroadfordBay - "I do not believe that the WI has been increased to 80% - in a fully legal sense."

The WI has always been, and remains at 80%, "in a FULLY legal sense".

It's never been anything else.

It will only be changed IF the PSC is amended.

From IR 16th January 2019:-

"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007.  Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."

[broadford bay] 12/2/2019 15:28

I do not believe that the WI has been increased to 80% - in a fully legal sense.

Considering the major and meaningful effect of such a change, the London Market Disclosure & Transparency Rules would rule out such an ad hoc release of such information.

I also do not believe the Trev chappy is he who many of you are being encouraged to think he is.

Ghosts everywhere you look...

[gkp_banggone] 12/2/2019 12:46

XxxxxxTrevanian on iii . . .I must correct you Mikey.The current WI is absolutely 80%.Reference slide 19 of the June corporate presentation where GKP confirmed that the talks had evolved form the original agreement from the March H of T agreement(58% et cetera)The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[gkp_banggone] 12/2/2019 12:45

XðŸ¤-SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19ðŸ'ŒYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈

[bocarugga85] 12/2/2019 12:36

McFly your shoe's untied! Don't be so gullible, McFly!

[gkp_banggone] 12/2/2019 12:20

Yes £40Minimum.And gulf proxy bought in 30%Wouldn't you if you had stacks of spare cash and the market was selling to you for buttons£60 minimum

[gkp_banggone] 12/2/2019 12:20

Trevanian on iii . . .I must correct you Mikey.The current WI is absolutely 80%.Reference slide 19 of the June corporate presentation where GKP confirmed that the talks had evolved form the original agreement from the March H of T agreement(58% et cetera)The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[gkp_banggone] 12/2/2019 12:19

ðŸ¤-SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19ðŸ'ŒYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈

[mcfly02] 12/2/2019 12:19

I also think that Trev is one village idiots that posts here every day.