Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[asherspoodles] 04/2/2019 09:21

1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxxxxxzzx

[mcfly02] 04/2/2019 09:19

Good Morning 😃

Sorry I've not been around but I went to visit the neighbours to educate them to the real world 🤷‍a94;️

[nestoframpers] 04/2/2019 09:13

Get on with it

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 21:36

Here you are nestofBS, have a chuckle over this classic of yours. 70k a day by Oct 2017 you say. LOFL

nestoframpers
14 Jul '16 - 20:05 - 503243 of 579053
0   2  0
"n.marland , they would once paid have $270 mill in the bank and get $15 mill a month from sales OPEX is $8 mill , we have to pay back $500 mill in Oct 2017 , by then though we will be at 70 k blls a day and earning much more I reckon ".

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 21:25

And this. 31 months on, it's a belter innit:-)

oil_investor
14 Jul '16 - 15:51 - 503180 of 579052
0   1  5

"leedskier: er...you say "We need an oil pipeline".

What on earth do you think the 36-inch KRG pipeline which will run the 10 miles from Shaikan to KPS2 on the main export pipeline is for?

And you say we need "lots of oil being produced"

That's exactly what Jon Ferrier is planning to do"!

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 21:23

Na, that's not funny, but this is, LOFL

oil_investor
14 Jul '16 - 15:45 - 503177 of 579051
0   3  5

"For heaven's sake.

YESTERDAY: 40,000 bopd. $600 million of debt which matures in 2017. $52 million of interest per annum. c. $100 million of cash by end-July including accrued July production.

TODAY: 40,000 bopd rising to 55,000/70,000/85,000/100,000 bopd. $100 million of debt which matures in 2021. $10 million of interest per annum. c. $100 million of cash by end-July including accrued July production plus $25 million from the Open Offer and increasing further because of reduced interest payments, thereby funding production expectation".

[bj476] 03/2/2019 20:53

I do love reading the last remnants of what was once, “the messiah”. Now just a double act, comic duo, bill and ben, to me to you, the two ronnies, lol, french and saunders, oh and ofcourse, bill and ted. That sums up the remnants of the sh@g. Embarrassing.

The other comic duos are way to smart for these two!
So they can understand I think I need to use an emoji or two. 😂🖕.

[broadford bay] 03/2/2019 20:23

Let's remember those who have gone before us:

[0ili0] 03/2/2019 19:17

Anyone going to the oil club meeting this week?

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 19:05

Broadford, you mention Kirkuk. That's going to get real interesting:-)