Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 17:27

The man at the other end of Hannam's emails was Ashti Hawrami, then and still the oil minister of the oil-rich semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. Hannam and Buckingham were hoping to tempt him into a deal that would unlock the region's resource riches, undeveloped for years because of war and political instability. Bid interest from a third party was the bait.Hannam, who in 2008 was also helping broker closer ties between affiliated investment banks JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Cazenove as crisis gripped financial markets, was joined in the courtroom by David Davis, a leading British Conservative politician and supporter of the former soldier and his campaign.JP MORGAN. The PROUD holders of over 36,000,000 shares HERE

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 17:15

Lies, spin and loyalty: Hannam case tells of a banker's code?

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:50

X1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed £45-60 a share imoYou're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:49

ZzzzZzz1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed £45-60 a share imoYou're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 16:49

I'm asked to stay positive for the next few weeks, lol.

But I've said recently with all the hype to come investors won't be able to buy at the current share price for much longer. However, that doesn't mean that the "issues" that have obviously caused problems since the wipeout will melt away, innit.

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:46

1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed £45-60 a share imoYou're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:42

ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 16:40

You see frenchyfraud, if you read carefully and listened to other far more "informed" posters instead of berating them you get to learn important stuff, n'est ce pas:-)

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:22

XzxzzzzxCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 16:00

Couldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxxccczzzdd

[frenchybannedme] 03/2/2019 15:56

OK, I see that now, missed it yesterday.


Thanks.




Broadford Bay
3 Feb '19 - 15:10 - 579009 of 579012
0 0 0
frenchy,

read the SNM news releases, presentations and reports - they will confirm the spudding date and the taken-into-production date. The failure date (month) is shown in Slide #10 of the Jan-2019 presentation.

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 15:12

XzzzzzzzxZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 15:12

Running from LSE broadfraudedCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 15:12

BroadfraudedCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[broadford bay] 03/2/2019 15:10

frenchy,

read the SNM news releases, presentations and reports - they will confirm the spudding date and the taken-into-production date. The failure date (month) is shown in Slide #10 of the Jan-2019 presentation.

"Sitting in the soup" is an Allegorical way of putting it...

Please continue doubting - it becomes you.

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 14:11

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[officerdigby] 03/2/2019 14:10

Bigdog5 - 03 Feb 2019 - 13:06 - 579004 of 579006 - 1So looking forward to the hype fest. Will Shareholders be able to trust the hype?Stay positive for next few weeks plz!

[25wbh] 03/2/2019 14:02

I hope so, I am !!

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 13:38

ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzCouldn't agree with you more Jeremy1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed£45-60 imoðŸ'‹You're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxx

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 13:06

So looking forward to the hype fest. Will Shareholders be able to trust the hype?

[beernut] 03/2/2019 11:57

Rosneft’s Lebanon deal reveals Russia’s bid for Mideast influence
Moscow strikes energy pacts and steps into politics as US retreats from region

Rosneft has signed a 20-year deal to manage and upgrade an oil storage facility in Lebanon’s second city, Tripoli © AFP

February 1, 2019 11:46 am by Chloe Cornish in Beirut and Henry Foy in Moscow
Russia is expanding its ties with Lebanon through energy deals and efforts to mediate in regional politics as it seeks to fill a vacuum left by the US as Washington steps back from the Middle East.

The effort accelerated last month when Russia’s Rosneft, a state-controlled oil company, expanded its Mediterranean footprint by signing a 20-year deal to manage and upgrade an oil storage facility in Lebanon’s second city, Tripoli.

The deal, whose value has been kept secret, was the latest sign of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s attempts to expand Moscow’s influence as the US reduces its presence in the Middle East, said analysts and diplomats.


Last month President Donald Trump said the US would withdraw its troops from Syria, which shares a porous border and a fraught history with its smaller neighbour Lebanon.

“America’;s indecisive policy in the Middle East has helped Russia find a way in,” said Chawki Bou Nassar, Lebanon’s ambassador in Moscow. “After the Russians began their intervention in Syria in 2015, the Americans were retreating, so to speak.”

Russia is “filling the gaps, trying to be present”, said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.

Moscow’s attempts to prop up the Syrian regime have allowed it to extend its military presence and yielded access to Syria’s warm water ports, assets it has long desired.

The position of the storage facility Rosneft will manage is likely to raise questions over whether Russia will use it to mask fuel supplies to Syria — an activity the US Treasury has sought to thwart using economic sanctions.

Tripoli is just 30km from the Syrian border by road and 60km from the Russian-controlled port of Tartus, Moscow’s only maritime hub on the Mediterranean. A number of tankers delivering fuel from Russia to Syria and the regime of Bashar al-Assad have listed their destination as “Lebanon”; on global satellite monitoring systems, before turning off their transponders close to the Syrian coast.

Shehab Al Makahleh, chief executive of consultancy Al Makahleh Group, said Mr Putin was “more interested in gaining influence rather than finding real solutions to pressing issues”.

“Russia’s involvement is usually managing conflicts rather than resolving them because to do so, there should be wide range co-operation with the US,” he said.

Lebanon has long been a fulcrum of regional power struggles and the country’s leaders have found reasons to cosy up to the Kremlin.

One is that Beirut would like Russia to mediate with a resurgent Damascus, said Mr Hage Ali. “According to Lebanese perceptions, Russia can help manage the relationship with Syria which in the past was a bloody one,” he said.

Syria occupied Lebanon for almost three decades. Following its withdrawal in 2005, Damascus was blamed for political assassinations that rocked Beirut in 2005 and 2013.

Although much of Syria remains dangerous, Moscow has also offered to help Beirut facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. There are 950,000 officially registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon, according to the UN’s refugee agency, but other estimates put the figure as high as 1.5m.

Lebanon has turned to Moscow with other domestic problems. As prime minister designate Sa’ad Hariri struggled to form a government following elections in May 2018, Russian envoys lobbied allies in Iran and Syria to put pressure on their own political associates in Lebanon to end the impasse, said Mr Bou Nassar. “The Russians urged them to facilitate, or help facilitate, the formation of a government,” he said.