Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[broadford bay] 03/2/2019 20:23

Let's remember those who have gone before us:

[0ili0] 03/2/2019 19:17

Anyone going to the oil club meeting this week?

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 19:05

Broadford, you mention Kirkuk. That's going to get real interesting:-)

[broadford bay] 03/2/2019 18:46

Sweety - may I call you that? (I remember your Chocolate Mountain posting...sweet!)

That hard coatings, such as Tungsten, can be applied to certain pump- & wear parts, is NOT in dispute and is nothing new.

You keep calling it (the ESP), a "pump" - but actually it is a very complex (and expensive) Pump String, and the pumping part is only one of a whole heap of relatively hi-tech assemblies forming that string, and all of which are subject to the aggressive environment "down there".

The aggressive effects of sour crude H2S and sand/silt on metal pump impellers, bearings / shafts etc., is only one aspect. Sealing, for example, of cables and electrical items is another.

Re Kirkuk, a Q for you:
How many well workovers were necessary over the decades to recover from downhole kit that was completely eaten away ?

[bigdog5] 03/2/2019 18:38

I don't make up anything frenchy, I leave that to posters like you, 1712 and shediak.

[nestoframpers] 03/2/2019 18:05

Kirkuk has very high HS2 been producing for 90 years.

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 18:04

X1 Just how many billions paid2 How many shares left in issue after the buyback revealed £45-60 a share imoYou're welcome X🎈🎈ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 xxxxxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 18:03

The man at the other end of Hannam's emails was Ashti Hawrami, then and still the oil minister of the oil-rich semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. Hannam and Buckingham were hoping to tempt him into a deal that would unlock the region's resource riches, undeveloped for years because of war and political instability. Bid interest from a third party was the bait.Hannam, who in 2008 was also helping broker closer ties between affiliated investment banks JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Cazenove as crisis gripped financial markets, was joined in the courtroom by David Davis, a leading British Conservative politician and supporter of the former soldier and his campaign.X

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 17:27

The man at the other end of Hannam's emails was Ashti Hawrami, then and still the oil minister of the oil-rich semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. Hannam and Buckingham were hoping to tempt him into a deal that would unlock the region's resource riches, undeveloped for years because of war and political instability. Bid interest from a third party was the bait.Hannam, who in 2008 was also helping broker closer ties between affiliated investment banks JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Cazenove as crisis gripped financial markets, was joined in the courtroom by David Davis, a leading British Conservative politician and supporter of the former soldier and his campaign.JP MORGAN. The PROUD holders of over 36,000,000 shares HERE

[asherspoodles] 03/2/2019 17:15

Lies, spin and loyalty: Hannam case tells of a banker's code?