Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[oil_investor] 21/2/2017 23:39

nestoframpers: and this one is just 18 months ago. 11 July 2015 to be precise.

What happened?!

.........

It's a new day.... and I'm feeling good!

Hello Action Group, it's been awhile! Just giving you an update after I attended the GKP AGM in Paris on Thursday as I know few investors were able to attend.

Have you ever woken up in the morning, pulled back the curtains, the sun is shining, the sky is blue and the smell in the air is sweet? That's how i'm going to describe my AGM experience, albeit the chirping birds might come along and softly coat me with something unpleasant - that's the GKP share price and while that is largely unpleasant right now I couldn't help but smile on Thursday as that day had been a long time coming!

A couple of us were sat in the bar on Wednesday night when along came Phil Dimmock and Jon Ferrier. After awhile Jon and Phil came and sat with us. What a breath of fresh air!

On first impressions Jon isn't far from being a model CEO.

He has had many years dealing with Ashti and knows him very well. Knows the business inside out, was the person responsible for moving Maersk in to Kurdistan so knows the area well and delivered his Syrian project on time and on budget despite very difficult circumstances.

I asked Jon if he had any other commitments and he stressed that Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be his only priority, his full time job and I believed he takes it very seriously and is willing to give it his full commitment. Jon intends to spend 1 week out of every month in Erbil to maintain his relationship in Kurdistan and to keep up to date and in touch with the business. Not a yacht or a blackberry to be seen!

He expressed empathy for some of the positions shareholders found themselves in and without question plans to overhaul Investor Relations as well as to provide opportunities for shareholders to meet with Company Directors and Officials so that they can feel confident in the way the company is progressing and to feedback any concerns of their own that they may have.

The over-arching message that came across was that this man has a conscience and as such recognises his responsibility to and has a respect for his shareholders.

On the other hand that doesn't make him a push over by any stretch of the imagination. Both him and Sami are very focused, very clear, very switched-on and very driven. The Dynamic Duo.

They both set out their very clear vision for the future,
- explaining that every barrel of oil sold so far in 2015 has been paid for
- that they continue to negotiate with the KRG regarding the outstanding money owed
- that expansion plans can only be considered when arrears are paid (or a clear plan is in place showing how they will be paid)
- that while the company is up for sale, they will not accept just any offer - ALL the staff that I spoke to at the AGM stressed that the asset is very good, our problems stem from a lack of payment
- that they intend to wrap up sales negotiations soon so that serious interest can either make a realistic bid or if not, that the company can focus their energies directly back in to the company.
- a board aligned with shareholders - holding stock of their own

It was accepted that it would not be in the KRG's interest to see us fail, they too want to see Shaikan and GKP do well.

From general chatter, I picked up that our peers do class Shaikan as World Class and I think it was announced on the Wednesday that Kurdistan were going ahead with selling their own oil.

All in all, despite the bird poo (the share price) I couldn't help but feel optimistic and relieved that we have the makings of a team that are aligned with us, shareholders and I think / hope that this could be the start of something special!

So a big THANK YOU to team SAG, The picture that was painted on Wednesday and Thursday was the vision I had hoped for when SAG started and although it's taken a long time - they do say the best things are worth waiting for!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After the AGM a few shareholders asked about SAG and whether they could join. Initially I said it was pretty much dormant now but on reflection I think it would be a good idea to resume.
I don't think any sort of action will need to be taken now if Jon drives his team forward with the vision he has set out, but it would cause no harm for shareholders to get together with a united front and be ready to act should a need ever in the future arise.
The Institutional Investors have increased their holdings recently, they have a greater say and are well organised (but also conscientious)
The bondholders are organised - look how they negotiated the BER issue
But yet, the retail investors, GKP's largest group of investors are haphazard. Instead of being motivated to influence any kind of positive change they vent their frustrations or make fun at each other over a bulletin board. Some private investors have invested considerable sums of money in to this stock, this is not a way to behave. If they were over charged £10 at a shop they would speak to the shop owner, and if they got nowhere, they'd write a letter - but they'd sort it out. Here people are sat on losses of tens, if not hundreds of thousands and the best they can do is vent at another shareholder or get annoyed. Time to refocus that energy in my opinion, get your energy, like your money well spent. GKP SAG have proved they can be effective, decisive and efficient (getting our resoluntion in in the short space of time we had with the challenges that we faced in getting the paperwork together was a massive acheivement by all involved. It proved dedication and commitment.)

So rather than waste our energies, I have set up a new group for EVERYONE to join who wants to - gkpshareholdergroup.boards.net - I hope to see as many of you over there as possible.

It's a new dawn for GKP
Let's make a new dawn for GKP's shareholders.




All views my own, memory the same. Please don't take any of the above as investment advice.

[nestoframpers] 21/2/2017 23:37

Blood boils at the CPR (celsius predestined ripoff)

[bobobobobobob] 21/2/2017 23:24

By the way. Was oilman's woolies post 5 years ago? Well I never. Doesn't time fly. I could have sworn it was less than two years ago!

[bobobobobobob] 21/2/2017 23:22

Good evening genuines!!! As you can see, I had a lie in today :-)So when I logged in here last night, Oilman was obsessing over Bob. I have just logged on.....and guess what? Yep. Oilman is obsessing over Bob.Dance fatboy, dance!!!PMSL!!!!!!

[bigdog5] 21/2/2017 23:13

On the basis that OM63 has called everything spot on for years it doesn't look like "full value" will be anytime soon. Not that oil investor, who urged investors to "hold for full value" years ago appears to want to put a value on the only remaining asset now. I wonder where that would be in relation to the share price both then and now? He also stated that the 13% bonds weren't expensive. The Bh's having got the company for a pittance how expensive were they?

Wasn't it oil investor that was accusing the company of withholding slides, information, amounts of barrels and wanted a box opening? He does appear rather stressed when a few posters question his rosy predictions but surely he must remember he's got naff all correct in 7 years. So aren't we obliged to point this out?

As for payments are they correct amounts? Can anyone trust the numbers as put out by the MNR?

As for my comments re they need w/cap (as announced by the company at restructure) lets see how we go in the coming weeks. Btw, have the BoD bought any shares? So options, exit bonuses and large salaries don't qualify as troughing when shareholders have been virtually wiped out?

It does appear that there's quite a few posters that believe Kurdistan isn't the place to do business and that, how should we say it, the hosts may not be absolutely transparent in their dealings, how's that? And as for their predictions there's little difference between them and oil investor's imho.

I think I know why he's a tad annoyed and stressed though and lashing out at anything that he doesn't agree with.

[olieslim] 21/2/2017 22:31

Oilman6320 Feb '17 - 09:43 - 534303 of 534473 21 0
Gkp will not receive $500 mill from the KRG EVER.........FACT.

Not this year or next year or the year after that.

Is that clear enough for you ???

Or have I put a full stop in the wrong place so you can say I am wrong.

Bob you stupid sneering old fart.

-------

you say: "KRG EVER.........FACT.

That proves you and bob are one and the same.

Never mind, carry on!

[olieslim] 21/2/2017 22:22

I'm very bullish here atm. Byt I'll leave it to OM63 to tell you why.

[lardner23] 21/2/2017 22:16

slider, I'm not a scientist - I don't know the boiling point of blood :)) It does seem to vary between posters, though.

[slider27] 21/2/2017 22:08

L23 is boiling blood enough to cook the egg ??

[lardner23] 21/2/2017 22:06

Was the tipping point the 'curate's egg' comment?

[slider27] 21/2/2017 21:53

$$$ allegations of fraud or irregularity are unwise IMO

OI why are they unwise ? because maybe the truth hurts ?Because we should be afraid of what they/you will do?
Ha Boolllacks and dont forget karma my BB amico as you never know whats around the corner

Get back under your stone !! If not and you follow the conmen then you are a participant in the whole fiasco of Shiacon

[sidesplitting] 21/2/2017 21:20

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge

IRAQ NEEDS OIL PRICES TO REACH $60/BARREL TO PLUG THE PUBLIC DEFICIT GAP, PM ABADI SAYS.



Rig counts increasing each week again and US Shale on the up, OPEC are going to need an extension to the current production cap and a larger one.

[lardner23] 21/2/2017 21:19

What happened to o_i's post stating he'd decided JF was out of his depth? He's now quoting him as gospel.

[nestoframpers] 21/2/2017 21:16

Jackozy , he was one that made some cash I think , got a web site now trading something ?

[oil_investor] 21/2/2017 21:16

Sarah: but on 11 July 2015 at 3.00 pm everything was marvellous! Not at all how "Oilman63" now describes it!

* the sun was shining

* the sky was blue

* the smell in the air was sweet

* there were birds singing even!

* our peers do see Shaikan as World Class

* it would not be in the KRG's interest to see GKP fail

* the KRG want to see Shaikan and GKP do well

* this could be the start of something special!

But now "Oilman63" accuses Dr. Ashti Hawrami of, one assumes, fraud and deceit...

[nestoframpers] 21/2/2017 21:14

If the MOL geologists lead GKP & investors astray then we might be able to sue MOL for the impact of the BER write down ? How come our BODs trusted them ? JG said 25 bill blls at AB .

[hearts1] 21/2/2017 21:01

Kurdistan is corrupt, Iraq is in the top ten most corrupt nations as per Transparency International's 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index

[garrymorrow] 21/2/2017 20:41

Sorry sarah, I wanted to read the posts.

[oil_investor] 21/2/2017 20:35

Oh dear.

"Bigdog5" alleged that Kurdistan was corrupt, and that nobody would do business there. Now he says he isn't making any specific allegations. But unless he has specifics, how can he say the place is corrupt? Indeed, he said on New Year's Day that GKP "only exists to provide a trough...for the MNR to wallow in". Presumably by that he means Dr. Ashti Hawrami the Minister of Natural Reources? Here's the post:


Bigdog5 - 01 Jan 2017 - 19:22:52 - 531106 of 534445 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP
As regards the chance of a wonderful year, only if you're not invested in this pos that only exists to provide a trough for the BoD and the MNR to wallow in. The next round of funding can't be far away. Aimho

...............

And on what possible basis could he say that GKP would have to raise more funds very soon ("not far away")?

MOL (80% of Akri-Bijeel, operator) lost c. $700 million on that asset. The Geological team on the project were all sacked, according to GKP. So it's really a great asset is it, fraudulently handed back at a massive cost to MOL's shareholders, with its technical people wrongly dismissed from their employment? On what evidence? There isn't any.

And he claims that only one company has put forward an offer for GKP. How on earth can he know that? Maybe only DNO (= RAK? lol) went public, but there are indicative offers in the Oil & Gas business which aren't announced.

And how can he substantiate his assertion about "sporadic" payments for Shaikan production? Sporadic means "here and there, or now and then", like a misfiring motorbike engine. It's totally the wrong word. GKP have been paid from 1 January 2015 to 30 November 2016. That's 23 months, and within that there was an advance payment arranged by the MNR. Yes there have been delays, but the payments have been regular with the sorts of slippages which are common in business whether one likes that or not.

He then - despite it having been made crystal clear that Jon Ferrier has said that it's a Mixing Plant which is required to combine the Shaikan and Atrush crude flows together - links the two as "blending/mixing", as if after being told by the midwife "it's a girl" the baby is referred to as a boy/girl. Of course a mixing plant is not given away free with a packet of cornflakes; but the cost is not high. I have the project costing for a lookalike mixing plant. "Oilman63" has given no figure at all, unless he has done so off the thread. GKP's figures are set out by the company. The company has said that their share of the capex will be funded from income. I gave the figures earlier. It's obvious that it is not how "Bigdog5" is describing it.

What GKP may have said about cash in H1 2016 is no longer relevant, the oil price is much stronger and GKP have said capex will come from income. Or I guess from arrears.

Again, it was "Oilman63" who urged private investors not to sell their shares. It makes no difference to me whether people sell their shares or not. In any case, if they restrict their total investment in all shares to (say) 10% of their total assets, what's the basis for all the ranting and raging? Even if someone had £500k, put the lot into Muggins Oil and lost it all, that's fifty grand. How much do foreign holidays and daughter's weddings cost? People are adults, they should make up their own mind what to do and stop looking for someone to blame if it goes wrong.

What's GKP worth? Until one properly assesses the Recoverable Barrels using properly-based figures for the Fracture System and the Matrix Recovery - and the M&A position becomes clearer, and the oil price becomes clearer, etc etc it's a judgement call.