Gtl Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nearlybroke2] 02/12/2010 07:54

Ace....

overcrowding on the AIM?

[clunes100] 01/12/2010 17:01

I would have thought that other ethanol producers or oilers would be looking to the likes of stakes in GTL because it is undervalued and for 'green' credentials, especially as we know this market is expanding in the near future.

[aceuk] 01/12/2010 15:15

Yes - I don't bother even checking out such - deleted :-)

[ljsquash] 01/12/2010 11:35

Cheers steel.

[nearlybroke2] 01/12/2010 10:42

essentially no change in Tudor's holding, both boxes, in latest 2 RNS's show 9.54% and threshold over 10%....

[spaceparallax] 01/12/2010 10:02

Ace, no doubt you're right.

[aceuk] 30/11/2010 20:01

space ain't nothing can be done about it and nothing will be done until the institutions want to - my guess now is probably tax year 2011/12 :-(

[clunes100] 30/11/2010 19:29

Just keep buying more!

[bsg] 30/11/2010 17:16

No 15% mentioned ... yet

[spaceparallax] 30/11/2010 16:51

This share price decline is mad

[bsg] 26/11/2010 10:53

They could clear their debt in another four years or so ? (thats quite a long time in some peoples books).

[spaceparallax] 26/11/2010 10:35

I can only assume that the retracement is due to more selling by the Tudor grp.

[clunes100] 23/11/2010 17:09

sporazene2 - measured and logical comment. Accept that I would consider it low/medium risk. I realise that margin/raw material costs are a key factor (and the management did make a mistake on hedging a while back) but the counter is an expanding market, good management that delivers (more so than most companies) and one of the most efficient plants working and selling at nameplate plus.

Like you I will continue to hold and hope that your medium term perspective becomes short term with a bid!?

[sporazene2] 23/11/2010 16:57

clunes

i think the problem holding this back is the lack of control over the cost of sales and hence margin. We're pretty much at nameplate capacity now, so unless external factors drive better margins then the focus is going to be reduce operational gearing. I think once debt is down to less than $40m and assuming margin stabilises, then this is really going to be one of the drivers for an upswing in the share price. All things in the medium term.

Further, I think the impending annoucement on older vehicles being cleared for ethanol blend will create some short term momentum but I suspect the reality is this will only take up spare supply in the market; until this spare supply is completely taken up will there be a sustained increase in ethanol price and hence GTL margin. Even then this assume a flat price of the raw materials.

So i think a number of variables to consider here in an relatively immature industry are holding this back. I am holding here, but relatively few in what I consider to be a medium/high risk investment.

[clunes100] 23/11/2010 16:53

I just cannot understand a 6.1% drop in a day, especially given a solid set of results, prospects and a major long term shareholder exceeds 10% of shares in issue.

I can only assume that market sentiment is playing on small AIM stocks like GTL.

Any lower and I'll accumulate.

Apart from earlier poster, anyone else have a comment?

[bsg] 23/11/2010 12:09

I'm not talking about a quick shake, it's a long term shaker, over several years.

[clunes100] 23/11/2010 12:06

BSG probably more like a shake, there can't be too many companies that are as well run, have such good prospects virtually guaranteed (even equipment failure has been covered by insurance) and are so dramatically undervalued (I would argue that the sp/market cap represents less than 40% of asset value). A quick shake to force some stop losses is possible but risky.

Even a bored punter would find it difficult to give up what must be considered a definite upside to this share price Unless they were sure of a multi bagger else where but then that would surely be a higher risk investment.

I don't rule out fund raising as it would be the cheapest form of financing for GTL but given their cash/profit generation and business case, I would have thought that even in the current climate banks would be queuing to loan money to GTL, so that should ensure competitive rates. If they fund raise I hope they go to the entire sharholders, an institutional pacing/dilution given that urgency should not be a factor would be wholely unacceptable to PI's.

For me a HOLD until either a takeover offer or significant news on the future strategy of the company before re-evaluating my position on GTL. Will accumulate on lower share price DYOR

[bsg] 23/11/2010 11:43

I think there could be fundraising in the pipeline as there seems to be a far steadier stream of sellers than normal, can't believe its just loads of bored punters? Either that or MM's are running a shaker.

[clunes100] 23/11/2010 11:34

BSG the next announcement on the 15% mix will undoubtedly de risk GTL but I fear that the share price will only rise if market demand increases the margins on GTL's production and that is if they have not entered in contracts with customers that negate the effect of improved margins. To take advantage of the situation, GTL needs to increase and sell more production if the demand is there. So improvements to plant that does not disrupt production is one option or investing in new pruduction facilities is another which in the short/medium term would mean greater debt.

Given the news in the pipeline (re 15%) and the potential for demand to increase margins on sales, I simply cannot understand today's 3p drop. I can only say that if I had the odd £30m, I would be buying out this business. It appears that a bid for the company will be the only way that the true asset value and profit potential of the GTL business will be realised.

Anyone know when and where the next shareholders meeting or any investor presentations are likely to take place? I would like to attend but in the meantime I have increased my exposure to GTL, I am sure it will come good, it is just a question of time. Fair value is around £2 currently (DYOR) and this will increase as debt is rapidly paid down, the only blip will be the financing of more production facilities but this will be countered with the future revenue upside.

[bsg] 23/11/2010 10:30

nb2, the 15% mix for cars newer than 2002? MAY be this month, not will be, lets hope it is.

[nearlybroke2] 23/11/2010 10:15

Oh...forgot the insurance claim....which will be settled before coming
to Court but I suspect not without paying the cost of increasing GTL's capacity by 50%...

Anyone who would sell now needs to have their portfolio examined....
I want to know what's in it....I need shares that are better kept than GTL...
if they are that good!!!