Gtl Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nearlybroke2] 23/11/2010 10:11

Just because an institutional buyer, or any buyer for that matter, declares
that he has added over a threshold, shares that were acquired at a level,
in this case 70-80p, does not mean that he has stopped buying....

I would accept that more as a sign when someone has stopped selling....

Supply and demand...........pitiful levels being traded demonstrate
the mm seeking to loosen weak handed shareholders....

Just see what happens with a tightly held share like GTL when the mm needs
reasonable volume.....

He'll get as many shares as he needs at 85 and again at 90p...
if he needed any more...every tight fisted shareholder would be
asking questions why.

The final surge up past a quid will come before Xmas when the announcement bringing older cars into the net is made....that put's GTL's profit
expectations in to a different league and pays down all the company debt(circa$60m) in a few months!!!

GPRE's management have reacted well to this prospect!!1

[clunes100] 23/11/2010 09:02

So the share price goes down.

How does an increase in long term holder(s) which restricts the number of shares available equate to a lower share price Oh well, even more undervalued than when I last posted!

[nearlybroke2] 23/11/2010 07:38

Strong institutional investor goes up past 10% today.

The Tudor BVI Global Portfolio L.P is an investment fund advised by the members of the Tudor Group of companies. The Tudor Group is making the disclosure on behalf of the investment manager.

[ljsquash] 22/11/2010 10:18

Steel can you just narrow the headers so we don't have to keep paging across please?

Clunes100 I have to agree, though dividends are unlikely whilst they are still paying down the main debts.

[clunes100] 22/11/2010 08:48

In very simple terms, if you take the net assets less the goodwill and subtract the debt and then divide by the number of shares - you should have a 200p+ shareprice. Clearly, there is some risk associated with margin principly because of the varioaton in the corn and ethanol prices. However that does not equate to a market cap of £26m.

I have a feeling that this share price will not wake up until either GTL has a takeover offer on the table or they start paying dividend that might attract investors. The alternative is simply a waiting game and continued organic growth whilst wittling away the debt.

Very frustrating as I had expected to be in the 90's at this stage. This share remains considerably undervalued by more than 50%.

Anyone want to comment or disagree with the above?

[nearlybroke2] 21/11/2010 08:30

Sure but the international price of oil goes up, and with IT too the price at the
pump, and the profits of the oil sector have been going through the roof.

Ask yourself, what happens when international terrorism succeeds in locking out
the US and European countries from countries like Nigeria, where Shell has
recently thrown in the towel?

Where is US oil going to vcome from...
Alaska?,Greenland? Labrador?

Mexico almost closed down by the Obama Administration,
who know that they have to go deeper and deeper to get the oil.

Offshore Brazil is the only hope, and the old stalwarts in the Middle East.

Not that E should suddenly get too big for it's boots....but cars can be adapted and changed quicker than you can find a 100k bopd oil well.

[bsg] 19/11/2010 10:53

nb2, The problem is that corn goes up as well, so the profit potential will be somewhat limited, but it's still a good thing.

[nearlybroke2] 18/11/2010 18:47

If the E market is applied to cars going back to 200?
what will the profit potential be then for GTL?

Anyone doing the maths?

Announcement imminent?

[bsg] 17/11/2010 16:59

May be someone in the know, selling now to buy back later at lower price in a placing? or something.

[clunes100] 17/11/2010 16:41

Dissappointed, fully expected high 80's today.

[bsg] 17/11/2010 15:02

Days of steady selling, thought it may stop as results are out, it appears not.

[spaceparallax] 17/11/2010 12:06

Cheers LJS

[clunes100] 17/11/2010 11:03

Doubly disappointed this morning.

1. only a small rise;

2. virtually no buying, most of it was mine anyway.

I am amazed that a profitable cash generative business that is clearly managing its debt and sales is still languishing at this sp/market cap

[spaceparallax] 17/11/2010 09:28

Great figures.

I was surprised to see no specific mention of a further expansion of the existing plant, although the following extract may be significant:-

"The pursuit of GTL's growth strategy remains on track as we continue to identify
and evaluate opportunities in the ethanol industry. In addition, we continue to
develop profit enhancing technologies including food corn oil separation and
zein protein extraction at our IRE subsidiary's pilot facilities that will allow
GTL to expand further and diversify its revenue and profit base. "

Hard to see this remaining sub £1 for much longer.

[fishman] 17/11/2010 08:54

'Cup and handle' chart from start of 2008 to now indicates the rise from here on.
Looking for at least 125-150p over next few months.

[bsg] 17/11/2010 08:40

Its almost as if the MM's are running a long term shaker on this, I expect we'll go back to 50p in the summer.

[ducatiman] 17/11/2010 08:10

ditto, not a good market is it though?

[clunes100] 17/11/2010 08:08

I was expecting GTL to be quicker off the mark this morning!

[nearlybroke2] 17/11/2010 07:29

This is certainly one for the pension funds!!!
I think we already have one on board?

E is becoming a steady ship in stormy seas...just what they like!!!

[ducatiman] 17/11/2010 07:29

cracking results/performance, must deserve a rerating.

[nearlybroke2] 17/11/2010 07:27

Highlights for the period:



· Pre-tax profit increased 148% to $6.2 million (First Half 2010: $2.5 million)

· EBITDA increased 28% to $15.6 million (First Half 2010: $12.2 million)

· Debt, net of restricted cash, decreased $6.5 million from year end 31 March 2010 and $23.7 million from 30 September 2009

· Revenue increased 2% to $109.2 million (First Half 2010: $107.2 million)

· Ethanol plant commodity margins improved 6% to $0.56/ gallon (First Half 2010: $0.53/ gallon)

· Ethanol production increased 4% to 55.2 million gallons (First Half 2010: 53.3 million gallons)

Commenting on the results and outlook, CEO Richard Ruebe said: "We are delighted with GTL's performance for the period. Increased production at GTL's Illinois River Energy (IRE) ethanol plant, coupled with a favourable commodity margin environment for ethanol, enabled GTL to achieve improved earnings over the same period last year. Operationally, GTL ran at a 110 million gallon annualized rate for the period, a 4% increase over the same period last year. For the six month period under review, commodity margins improved nearly 6% over the same period last year resulting in debt reduction, net of restricted cash, of $6.5 million.



As GTL previously announced on 14 October 2010, the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) ruled it would now permit gasoline blends with up to 15 percent ethanol (E15), a 50% increase from the previous limit of 10 percent, for model year 2007 and newer vehicles. The USEPA also indicated it would rule on allowing up to E15 for 2001 - 2006 model year vehicles in late November or early December. Combined, these model year vehicles represent approximately two-thirds of US gasoline demand. Even though vested interest parties are trying to oppose the USEPA in these matters, over time we expect gradual adoption at the retail level. This should effectively remove the "ethanol blend wall" and allow ethanol sales in the US to reach the levels required under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2).



In 2011, RFS2 calls for baseline renewable fuels (corn based ethanol) to rise to 12.6 billion gallons, up from 12.0 billion gallons in calendar 2010. In following years, baseline renewable fuels are required to rise 0.6 billion gallons per annum, up to 15.0 billion gallons by 2015 and thereafter. With this forecasted steady increase in annual demand, and with relatively little new capacity under construction, GTL expects ethanol capacity utilisation should also increase in the future."



For further information please contact:



GTL Resources

Richard Ruebe, CEO [phone]

[nearlybroke2] 17/11/2010 07:27

GTL has become the top profit performer in the USA per gallon of Ethanol
produced and sold. Ironically it remains this morning the most undervalued
E manufacturer measured against it's more successful peers....GPRE is still
valued at 3-4 times the share price, and ADM valuations are out of sight!!!
Possibly, investors are still wondering whether E is here to stay, and the
absence of a US listing presents difficulties to some investors.

That being said....what a stellar performance!!!