Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[geckotheglorious] 05/12/2022 14:55

The ADRs of GSK plc (NYSE:GSK) dropped ~1% pre-market Monday after Bank of America downgraded its shares to Underperform from Neutral, arguing that the British drugmaker remains the firm’s least preferred name among the European majors.

Despite an “undemanding” PE multiple for 2024, “we see insufficient catalysts to rerate (GSK) shares near-term,” the analysts led by Graham Parry wrote, slashing their price target on the stock to 1450p from 1640p.

Noting the ~ £4B free cash flow the company generates, the analysts expect claims related to heartburn medication Zantac to weigh on GSK shares which, according to the analysts, more than discount their base case $4B liability risk.

Despite encouraging Phase 3 data, the analysts see no reason for GSK’s RSV vaccine to outcompete a rival shot from Pfizer (PFE). They also point out that the company has indicated a slower ramp for the RSV vaccine compared to its shingles vaccine Shingrix given the need to educate the public/physicians on the disease.

“While encouraged by GSK’s strong RSV vaccine PIII data we view Pfizer’s vaccine as credible competition given little to no perceived differentiation on efficacy and worse reactogenicity (tolerability) for GSK,” the team wrote.

They also argue that the company’s key franchises remain under pressure and a weak pipeline is unlikely to avoid an upcoming patent cliff in 2028/29E for HIV medication dolutegravir made worse by recent setbacks, including the recall of blood cancer therapy Blenrep.

[anhar] 05/12/2022 09:34

As purely an income investor that trades only rarely, I'm hanging on to my existing holding of GSK and my HLN allocation, but I see no reason to increase either for the time being, and haven't for years now for the pre-demerger GSK, because of the dull income prospects. Both shares fit into my port on diversification grounds, a factor which is crucial to my strategy, but offer little current income attractions against other more desirable shares in the port or potential new stocks.

[tuftymatt] 05/12/2022 09:00

Let's hope so!!
1450 rather than 1400ish would be a start!!

[tradermichael] 05/12/2022 08:56

Santa rally, anyone? ..... ;0)

[1knocker] 03/12/2022 17:44

Anhar, there are damn few new drugs which sell so well as to move the share price dial for a company the size of GSK. Its the old faithfuls, selling in quantity year in year out with the capital development cost already incurred which keep the show on the road. I am by no means convinced of the merits of the demerger. A low Capex cash cow was a very good foundation for the drugs division.

I sold out a large long term holding at an average of about £17.50, and have recently bought a few back. I an currently up 5% on that repurchase, and will probably buy a few more if the price dips, but I am not looking to go anything like so heavily into GSK as I was unless its long term prospects improve dramatically.

[rikky72] 02/12/2022 12:54

Sentiment here has been poor since forever, but as explained elsewhere, they have often been the architect of that themselves.. always one step forward and two (or three!) back!

[tradermichael] 02/12/2022 11:26

It would seem like even the blockbuster, Shingrix has been overlooked. They had unprecedented success when launched but then ran into supply problems (unforgiveable) and then vaccinations generally were hit by the Covid pandemic (unforseen).

[anhar] 02/12/2022 10:38

I've held GSK for a very long time and I've noticed that positive drug news like this rarely makes much difference to the sp, or on the rare occasions that it does it's very temporary as shown by the long term underperformance of this share. That goes for both price action and my own reason for investing, income, where divis have been flat for years and are now declining following the HLN demerger, even taking the likely future divis from the latter into account.

It seems that it would have to be a real blockbuster to make any serious and sustained improvement to the share price and divis.

[tuftymatt] 02/12/2022 08:50

The good news lost on a down start net.

I will be adding though if it dips to 1380 or so.

[netcurtains] 02/12/2022 08:09

GSK PLC Jemperli positive trial in endometrial cancer

[dplewis1] 01/12/2022 11:28

Citigroup cuts price target to 1550p from 1975p

[pol123] 01/12/2022 07:45

They would take the bulk and spin off what they dont want

[alphorn] 30/11/2022 21:39

I posted a while back that once Novartis floats off the generic Sandoz business it will be looking for an acquisition. It may not want to buy huge R&D facilities though, rather IP.

[geckotheglorious] 30/11/2022 20:22

”GSK is a potential buyout candidate for Novartis - Intron Health”
GSK (NYSE:GSK) could be a potential buyout target for Novartis (NYSE:NVS) (OTCPK:NVSEF) as the Swiss pharma company is eyeing a large acquisition, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing Intron Health, an Equity Research firm based in London.

The analyst Naresh Chouhan argues that a potential combination with GSK (GSK) will enable Novartis (NVS) to re-enter the vaccine market and virology in a bid to diversify its business away from the competitive and risky oncology.

In 2015, Novartis (NVS) divested its global vaccine business (excluding influenza vaccines) to GSK (GSK), then known as GlaxoSmithKline, after a $5.25B deal.

Even with a 40% premium, the analyst projects that such a deal could be over 40% accretive after three years, assuming $2B synergies and a 6% cost of debt. A cash-based deal will lower proforma net debt to 2.4x EBITDA by 2025.
The analyst notes that the “temporary mispricing” of GSK (GSK) stock due to financial overhang from Zantac claims has paved the way for an “opportunistic” acquisition.

[geckotheglorious] 30/11/2022 15:48

"GSK plc (GSK) Presents at 5th Annual Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference 2022"



#Click Play earnings call.
Gives you audio rather than having to read transcript.

[dplewis1] 30/11/2022 08:26

Morgan Stanley cuts target price to 1535p from 1650p

[alibizzle] 29/11/2022 17:07

Thanks I know it was stupid but I still have my house and a job . Worse things have happened to me this year to put things in perspective. Increase in share price today though !

[rikky72] 28/11/2022 12:57

You shouldn't feel too bad, we've all screwed up before one way or the other too. Having said that, I do feel you will get your target of £18 here eventually. Over a decade ago, I was following silence therapeutics. It was a 'hot' stock, had a cult following on the boards and many were absolutely convinced that it would be taken over at a huge premium. The most extreme was that one unfortunate sold his house, poured it all in, and then when it all went inevitably wrong ended up living in rented accommodation. Grim.

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/11/2022 11:08

Hopefully it will also wash away all the nonsense snowflakery that has infected a lot of companies and is absolutely rife in the public sector :) Be offended by your interpretation of someone else's opinions or comments, by all means, but learn to live with it...and above all else, just do your job! Companies should only focus on improving their products and services offering to their customers and clients. Leave all the social justice stuff for your own private time. Do not impose it on your staff or those who ultimately pay your salaries - from CEO down to graduate level new recruits. IMO anyway.

[diku] 28/11/2022 09:03

Exactly...and not just tech companies but mega companies across the plc...once upon a time many moons ago before the tech era of mobile phones, computers, ipads, social media etc etc people put in a proper day's work...not any more...more interested in looking at their mobile phones at every opportunity during working hours...




lovewinshatelosses26 Nov '22 - 20:04 - 31214 of 31215
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Musk is going to show just how bloated the headcount of many tech companies are, IMO. If he pulls it off (and I would not bet against him), then expect to see similar moves in a number of other tech companies in 2023. Necessity is already driving change, given the macro outlook and more expensive borrowing rates etc. So the wheels are already in motion I think.

[alibizzle] 26/11/2022 20:53

Yeah I will stay positive but lesson learned

[lovewinshatelosses] 26/11/2022 20:04

Musk is going to show just how bloated the headcount of many tech companies are, IMO. If he pulls it off (and I would not bet against him), then expect to see similar moves in a number of other tech companies in 2023. Necessity is already driving change, given the macro outlook and more expensive borrowing rates etc. So the wheels are already in motion I think.
Sure, he had a great platform to start from, but nevertheless, he has an impressive track record to date. Not saying he is a particularly likable character (especially that distasteful comment about that diver a few years ago), nor would I like to be his employee, but very few great businessmen or leaders ever are. Certainly it is interesting to follow and I have not noticed a difference in Twitter since he slashed staff numbers. Quite frankly, I would let him loose on a number of UK public sector departments. Pretty sure the results would be similar :)

[netcurtains] 26/11/2022 19:28

lol - Musk has a fallback plan, his dad owns an emerald mine.
He's just a rich boy.

I think if my dad owned an emerald mine I might be more
casual with my money.

[pierre oreilly] 26/11/2022 19:11

Musk seems to do Ok in a single company.

Maybe a few billion in a few companies, but basically single company investing.