Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rose_by_another_name] 11/4/2018 09:01

We could always use another lignite mine.

[up just a little bit] 11/4/2018 08:53

Dear God, Let's hope they don't make an acquisition its another part of their track record that's best left alone

[malcolmmm] 11/4/2018 08:50

It just needs news of an acquisition and or the licence and they will rocket.

[rmjones] 11/4/2018 08:41

You don't need to congratulate them, they have already congratulated themselves - but while you are at it perhaps you could ask them to consider making an outlook statement.

[malcolmmm] 11/4/2018 08:08

Perhaps they are eyeing up an acquisition rather than wait for the licence.
I am going to email congratulating them on the amazing progress as shown in the results.

[up just a little bit] 11/4/2018 07:11

Just above the directors eyes should do very nicely

[phillis] 11/4/2018 01:09

Well surely the answer is to top slice

[up just a little bit] 11/4/2018 00:22

To all the holders who want to point out that they are in a massive return you may want to consider that you are a lucky minority. Not only that you may want to consider that there are a significant number of people who are interested in getting a return from their investment after a decade in line with the directors

[up just a little bit] 11/4/2018 00:18

What is Griffin doing in conjunction with the broker coverage? Ten years down the line the slick press coverage is non existant and the respect for private investors is nul and void. I if were a certain wife of one of the BOD then I would be a pig rolling in muck as my renumeration for my company employed by Griffin would be assured as opposed to the investors who have supported the company for over a decade de.

[owenga] 10/4/2018 22:20

This is interesting from the annual accounts:

"Development work at Zone II is planned to begin as soon as the new mining licence is received. It is expected that this work will be completed in 2018 and that this will enable significant production increases from 2019 onwards".

So the directors clearly think the licence will come through sooner rather than later.

[owenga] 10/4/2018 22:09

I have set out below the split of revenues, costs, pricing and minerals sold etc between the fist and second half.

1st half 2nd half Full year
Actual Actual Actual
revenues 52,333 74,325 126,657

cost of sales (20,820) (23,540) (44,360)

Gross Profit 31,513 50,785 82,297

Admin expenses (8,061) (10,463) (18,524)

Profit from operations 23,452 40,322 63,773

Other costs 2 (822) (820)
Finance costs (1,401) (675) (2,076)

PBT 22,053 38,825 60,877


Ore mined 486,000 434,168 920,168
Ore processed 461,618 506,462 968,080

tonnes/oz sold
Zinc 19,336 24,006 43,342
Lead 705 716 1,421
Silver 168,426 225,691 394,117
Gold 9,372 11,117 20,489

Price
Zinc 2,082 2,484
Lead 1,780 1,800
Silver 14 16
Gold 1,160 1,200

Revenues
Zinc 40,259 59,627 99,886
Lead 1,255 1,289 2,544
Silver 2,358 3,645 6,003
Gold 10,872 13,340 24,212

54,743 77,902 132,644
Royalties and resource taxes (2,410) (3,577) (5,987)
Net revenues 52,333 74,325 126,657

It doesn't copy in very well, but it is understandable.

What is interesting and what caused my numbers to be slightly below actuals, is that metals sold was more than expected. Zinc tonnes sold were 20% ahead of first half on only 10% extra ore processed, so as GFM pointed out last year the grades have increased in second half.

2018
Based solely on second half profits from operations of $40m we can assume $80m for 2018. And assuming no losses on obsolete assets or finance costs then PBT should also be about $80m. That is $20m more than 2017!

It is a bit early to estimate average sale prices, but YTD is probably slightly ahead of average second half 2017 prices. Certainly if price stays around 3,300 per tonne as they are now, that will be ahead of second half 2017.

However, I think there are more efficiencies to come this year with better equipment, larger trucks, and new portal opened up, GFM should be able to process more ore.

So I see no reason based on current prices that GFM can't make $85m PBT for 2018, and thats without the zone 2 licence.

I won't be selling my shares in the immediate future.

[kenmitch] 10/4/2018 20:34

Fair points owenga. The only problem is that they have been confident about getting the licence for SO long. They were confident by end of 2017. And can’t see why they can’t give at least an indication why it is taking so long as they can do that without giving info they would rather not. Ditto re Outlook statement. Very few Companies fail to do that and I can’t see any reason why GFM don’t, and the more so if, as is likely, they are confident about prospects. Those hoping for further short term share price gains would be far more likely to see that with a positive Outlook update.

[phillis] 10/4/2018 20:17

Assuming all other things remain equal what is wrong with second half eps X 2
Say between 28-30 cents - 7P/E

[owenga] 10/4/2018 19:10

Agree with you on most points, but disagree with last point. It would be even more frustrating waiting all this time to get the licence and then once receiving it start planning and building for the extension. Much better to get it all ready so quick turnaround when it does come. GFM is still confident of getting the licence at some point.A lot of people have mentioned the lack of future guidance. No surprise really. GFM have always provided as little information as they can get away with.However, I do recommend that you read the annual accounts. There is some additional useful information there. One is expect an upgrade of resources in the near future following a lot of drilling last year. Also throughput will increase from April once they have finished a new portal, which will make haulage easier.It will be possible to estimate 2018 numbers once you work out numbers for second half of 2017 and extrapolate based on current prices. I will have a go tonight.

[kenmitch] 10/4/2018 18:23

The best threads on ADVFN (including this GFM thread) are those where posters realise there is a plus and minus case for every share. Idiots who don’t realise that and who only want to know the GFM plus points don’t even realise when posters are posting useful information and not moaning. I’m happy with my GFM holding bought at 59p but would be even happier if GFM updates were more informative. What’s wrong with me or Makinbuks making that point?

[hvs] 10/4/2018 18:04

Best to sell out then instead of moan.

[kenmitch] 10/4/2018 17:06

Also a longer term happy holder of CAML and dividend there a huge plus and with good chance of another increase to be announced on Thursday.

Main disappointment with GFM today was not so much the lack of dividend but lack of information. e.g why is is taking so long to get the licence, and what's the stumbling block and what are they going to try and do to resolve it.

Also lack of an outlook statement and more thorough results comment is very disappointing. Hence the muted share price response to excellent results today.

[polaris] 10/4/2018 16:56

Did not get out of meeting and now it's a working dinner, followed by a new morning of meetings and flight home. With some luck I'll be able to break down figures and forward projections later in the week.

[gary1966] 10/4/2018 15:38

I reduced my exposure this afternoon because of there not being any indication of a dividend in the foreseeable future, but still hold a reasonable amount. Have added to an already reasonable position in CAML, who have results on Thursday, as they are also growing quickly, as a result of the reverse takeover they completed last year and commodity prices being favourable, and reward shareholders with very high dividends and have a long history of doing so.

GLA

[ukgeorge] 10/4/2018 14:57

i'm up 162% ;)

hehehehe

but did manage to sell a load at 20p a year and a half ago

05 Apr 2016 Sale -10,000 24.96p (cost per share) sold at 20p ish doh

[up just a little bit] 10/4/2018 14:51

Malcolm, Have you considered that maybe we are not all sitting on a 100% profit. Also to consider the previous years of statements when they have considered a dividend and decided against it seems unjust not to be more forthcoming in recompencing shareholders given the state of their coffers now!

[rmjones] 10/4/2018 14:48

Malcolmmm - If you had a spare mil right now burning a hole in your pocket, would you use it to by Griffin shares?