Gresham House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 25/7/2013 19:11

I'm sure they are focused anyway! Disposals have been quite slow.

[badtime] 25/7/2013 14:03

Agreed..it shud help focus there minds a bit., u can buy at 310/2

[redhill9] 25/7/2013 07:26

Board update

In line with the stated strategy of orderly realisation of the group's assets and in order to reduce its cost base, the Company has today served notices to terminate the service contracts and letters of appointment of each of its executive and non-executive directors. In accordance with the contractual notice periods, the service contracts and letters of appointment will terminate on 31 July 2014.

The Board continues to work towards an orderly disposal of all investments and properties. However, should this not be achieved by 31 July 2014, it is currently expected that some or all of the directors will continue to provide their services to the Company on a short term basis on terms to be agreed.

It looks as though they have a reasonable expectation of disposal by 31 July 2014, so just a year from now. No update on NAV but current share price this morning of 300/325p so if they achieve, say, 370p per share that would equate to around 23% for current holders at 300p, and around 13.5% for anyone buying now at 325p. Previous estimates were for 400p per share which would push the return for current holders over 30%.

Looks a good "hold" at least.

[old tyke] 25/7/2013 06:41

today's announcement signals that the board is (finally!) keen to realise value sooner rather than later. join the fun.....

[davebowler] 05/6/2013 13:48

This may be relevant to Memeorial Holdings;
hxxp://www.creativeinvestor.co.uk/cost-of-burial-risen-by-100-since-2009/

[topvest] 06/5/2013 20:10

I'm still watching, but won't be buying unless we get a bit of price weakness. It is by no means certain that the 400p liquidation value will be achieved or that it will be within timescales indicated, so I would want more discount for the risk.

[badtime] 06/5/2013 19:31

Might be worth at least a nibble sky....doesnt seem a huge amount of choice around at mo

[skyship] 04/5/2013 09:29

Redhill – I feel that things have progressed well for GHE over the past year, well, but slowly, as is always the case when relying upon planning consents.

Still, they do look now to be making good progress on many fronts. The two key questions remain:

1. How much will they realise
2. When will they pay out

With the revised NAV up at 441p, I concur with your 400p as a working liquidation value target. As for the timing, well, they've stated a payout at the end of the liquidation process, as partial payouts are presumably precluded by the terms of their outstanding bank loans. I therefore have 31st Dec'14 in my spreadsheet.

For a buyer at 333p (335p inc exps), the GRY = 11.3%. Fair Value, but not necessarily cheap. As a holder, right to hold; but I don't see a rush on new buyers at this stage. I keep them on my Monitor for re-entry on a cheap offer, especially if they announce the profitable sale of their Memorial Holdings stake.

My one concern: The valuation of the Newton-le-Willows property in the blighted North. The supermarket consent obviously provides an anchor for the total site and they state they are in discussions with house-builders; but with values in the North still in decline as yields still climb, the conversion of that asset to CASH is the key driver to GHE's success.

[topvest] 30/12/2012 21:29

It's an interesting one this, in terms of looking at what the liquidation value might be, but still I'm not quite tempted at this price given their exposure to Northern property which is in real distress. Does anyone know how much the 28 acre site at Newton Le Willows is actually worth - firstly for the 10 acre foodstore development, and then for the remaining 18 acres of residential land? I expect the latter is not worth as much unless a food operator snaps up the foodstore site. Does anyone have a view on this site - it is not possible to gauge precisely, but my guess is that it is in the books for £10-13m as the foodstore looks like its in the books for circa. £5.5m?
Overall, I may be tempted in at below £2.50 -£3.00 as I would trust the judgement of Asset Value Investors buying in a year or two back, but think the current price doesn't have enough margin of safety. Then again it is very difficult to gauge just how much the properties are worth. They could be worth a lot more, or could be very disappointing if the food operators don't like the site. In today's property market my sense is to be cautious. Any thoughts welcome.

[badtime] 06/12/2012 08:59

QUIET OVER HERE

[badtime] 26/9/2012 12:20

Lol gd reply

[skyship] 26/9/2012 11:16

Ah well, just remember that a humble abode in the UK amounts to the same price as a chateau here in SW France!

[badtime] 26/9/2012 09:19

wb sky..terrace..pool...wine lake...sigh..i'm from just a humble abode :)

[skyship] 26/9/2012 08:44

The above is obviously good news; but I have no idea as to the quantum. Now back from 2weeks hols so will investigate and report back - after I've hoovered up all the leaves round the terraces , in the pool and clogging up the wine lake!!!

[skyship] 20/9/2012 16:37

20 September 2012

Gresham House plc - Portfolio Update

The Board of Gresham House is pleased to confirm that the Company has received planning permission for a 70,000 sq. ft. (6,500 m2) foodstore with 464 car park spaces and petrol filling station on 10 acres adjoining the Town Centre of Newton-le-Willows, in the Borough of St Helen's. The Company is currently in discussions with potential food operators.

[tiltonboy] 13/9/2012 12:57

Alan,

Good to see you back around. I hope all went as well as these things can!

I might well miss it, but I'm happy to be patient. I bought last time at 248p, and departed at 320p.

[alanji] 13/9/2012 12:40

Tilts - I bought back in at 289. Skyship and I think you have no chance at 270 (hope so, anyway)

[yieldsearch] 12/9/2012 20:49

Saw this in estates gazette. Should be positive for the value (converting low value industrial into supermarket).

Gresham gets nod for St Helen's supermarket
Gresham House has got the go ahead to turn a trading estate in St Helen's, Merseyside, into a 70,000 sq ft supermarket.
The firm has got consent to transform the Deacon Trading Estate in Earlestown into a 70,000 sq ft food store.
An operator has not yet been secured.
As part of the consent, Gresham will undertake a series of improvements to Earlestown town centre, including installing pedestrian crossings.
The supermarket could be open for trading by the end of next year.
GVA and Cheetham & Mortimer are letting agents on the site; GVA also advised on planning.

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2012 13:46

No, I am on the bid at 28.5p.

[skyship] 11/9/2012 13:29

Tilts - but you always buy in below me!!

270p - no, I don't think so. More likely that the next RNS will be a disposal and provide justification enough for the 412p NAV.

Incidentally - was that you paying 29.5p for 100k APT?

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2012 13:10

SKYSHIP,

I'm not so confident that a 10% discount is sufficient.

Not holding at the moment, and would want them back to 270p before I had another look.

[skyship] 11/9/2012 11:41

I made a small top-up @ 292p today as the liquidation stats again look compelling:

The Board in the recent RNS stated that liquidation by end Dec'13 is a practical proposition; and it is interesting to note that many of their recently extended loans have been dated to mature within that date, so they must be confident.

So, running the numbers. Assuming a purchase price of 294p inc exps, then, assuming two different liquidation values (5% & 10% discounts to the current 411.9p NAV) and two different payout dates (31/12/2013 & 31/03/2014) the Gross Redemption stats are as follows:
========================================
# Assume 10% discount to the 411.9p NAV, ie 370p. Then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31/12/2013 = 19.3%pa

# Assume 10% discount to the 411.9p NAV, ie 370p. Then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31/03/2014 = 16.0%pa
=========================================
# Assume 5% discount to the 411.9p NAV, ie 391p. Then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31/12/2013 = 24.5%pa

# Assume 5% discount to the 411.9p NAV, ie 391p. Then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31/03/2014 = 20.2%pa
=========================================

Personally, after reading and re-reading the Interims, I suspect we may well see a liquidation value slightly in excess of 400p, so with the lowest return in the stats above showing 16%pa - I think these are right to BUY again...

[topvest] 11/9/2012 08:49

Possibly, but is it good value for Gresham shareholders as SAL still looks undervalued to me?