Great Portland Estates Share Discussion Threads

[msm] 03/4/2009 19:11

It is out now

[donalc] 03/4/2009 10:35

I suppose anytime up till 16.30 is allowed?

I would have thought results would have been out at 7 am.

[donalc] 02/4/2009 10:21

So results tomorrow it is then.

[a1samu] 31/3/2009 11:44

Purely on chart action basis according to ii the free research service that comes with Selftrade, they are calling the price to 190p, on the 30 March, with a stoploss at 144p.

I think there are safer bets in the market place today, which also pay a generous and secure dividend, like Weir or Petrofac, but I am cautious committing extra cash to purchases, since it appears that the market is once again in a downtrend.

[donalc] 31/3/2009 10:19

Is this rise a dead cat bounce?
Or does the market think more positively about results due any day- which as others have said will be 3 months out of date.

[nil pd] 30/3/2009 16:08

Sorry donalc, I didn't spell it out clearly. Basically the NAV is too far out of date and I concur with a1 on that. The reassurance from the directors on 16 March speaks for nothing when it is a retrospective NAV. Currently I consider it as cash in the bank and the equity assets set to zero (some of the assets may be worthless). So that's 190p per share unless some cash has since been spent, in which case lower.

The market is therefore currently valuing the company at a significant discount to cash-in-the-bank value. The price is likely to drop further when the woeful retrospective NAV situation is flagged up clearly to the market. I believe it will happen because the company will have to work at justifying the method.

As a1 elequently puts it, the trailing NAV method works well in a rising market. Not t'other way about.

[a1samu] 30/3/2009 15:44

The last NAV declared is already three months out of date and a lot of water has flown down the river since. The NAV should be declared for the 31.3.2009 some time in the distant future, which will be much less than the one for the 31.12.1008.

They should also be putting out a massive profit warning, because already the NAV is much, much less than it was last time, that is on the 31.12.2008. If you believe anything else it is sad.

These bunch of directors are totally misleading the investors with their reporting, which is due to some very lax rules, which should be changed to better inform and better keep up to date shareholders.

In the past, when markets were on the way up, it did not so much matter, that they were so behind with reporting on NAV. They were progressing to higher and higher levels then. Now the landscape has totally changed and values have evaporated, so I would have expected a responsible board of directors to be more communicative of the bad news then this company is doing.

[donalc] 30/3/2009 15:18

Nil Pd

I accept I may be stupid but have they not already given a strong hint on the NAV in their statement:

Statement re final results announcement (Graphite Enterprise)





TIDMGPE

RNS Number : 9181O
Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC
16 March 2009

?
ANNOUNCEMENT TO STOCK EXCHANGE


GRAPHITE ENTERPRISE TRUST PLC


16 March 2009


Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC ("Graphite Enterprise" or the "Company") expects
to release its final results for 31 December 2008 no later than 3 April 2009.
The Company previously announced that it would release those results on 19 March
2009.


The delay in the release of the results has been to allow for the clarification
of certain technical issues. These have now been satisfactorily resolved and
will not impact the Company's net asset value per share or any other aspect of
its performance or operations.


Graphite Enterprise's net asset value per share as at 31 December 2008 is
estimated to be in the region of 449p.At that date, the Company had no debt and
had cash and near cash of GBP139.0 million (191p per share), representing
approximately 42% of the Company's total assets. "


I would imagine the next time we get a mention on NAV is in 6 months time. I agree they could keep market better informed, but maybe they dont have to, so dont?
I have risked a few K on this last week and await results. I think the collapse has happened and the percieved drop in NAV is already priced in.

[nil pd] 30/3/2009 15:05

a1samu, I concur. Also not a holder, I sold out completely in July 2008. Not that I am dismissing this share though - I will be back when the time is right and that is not now, in my opinion. Also IMO, I suspect we will hear some uncomfortable news re NAV and the market will over-react, although I can't agree with your post 34 that the price will collapse. But that could be a good time to consider re-entry, if I feel so inclined, depending on the full disclosure.

[a1samu] 30/3/2009 11:37

Well no, over the years this share chart was very easy to follow and I have been able to exit/enter it at crucial moments before collapse/rise. I am not holding any shares & I ould not touch this with a bargepole at the moment.

What is infuriating is the lax reporting rules according to which it can keep the market in suspense for up to three months before it will release NAV prices.

Also, they should have reported a profit warning a long time ago already, because it is very likely that the next NAV will be much less than the one reported last.

No womder there is a crisis out there and a massive lack of confidence in directors of companies.`

[corrientes] 27/3/2009 07:45

It seems extremely unlikely that all their cash is committed and so has no value.

[goldthorpe] 24/3/2009 21:37

a1samu,
Your words look as if you are fuming with anger. Did you buy at the top (serious question)? Or, are you an informed observer?

[a1samu] 22/3/2009 12:24

NAV is 449p at 31 December 2008, which is down from the date of the last sale, when NAV was reported of 494p. The latest NAV is reported on the 16 March 2009, which is two and a half months out of date. This is outragous.

The market does not believe the directors of this company. They should be able to report NAV by the day, if they so wanted.

To report NAV two and a half months out of date is just sheer stupid. In any case NAV should have fallen further by the end of March and is likely to be below 400p, even at their reckoning.

There is no reason why this share should not collapse, just like Candover did, which is now about 10% of its value only a short time ago and is unable to sell itself even at the latest discounted share price, because of their commitments to invest monies they do not have, in busted companies.

The fall in this share price is far from over.

[donalc] 17/3/2009 14:18

thanks for pointing out what the numbers/words mean.

[jonwig] 17/3/2009 13:23

Tiltonboy - thanks. Even in these markets an ungeared discount to cash assets would be pretty unbelievable.

[donalc] 17/3/2009 11:43

That explain some of it.
Further down the same IMS it reports selling funds which brought in 60million.
This in turn seemed to drop both the above figures by 60million.

[tiltonboy] 17/3/2009 11:37

donal,

Not that easy. The cash plus a lot more on top is committed to existing investments.

jonwig,

Your assumptions are correct.

tiltonboy

[jonwig] 17/3/2009 10:47

From the Nov IMS:

Commitments

Outstanding commitments fell by 9.8% from £346.4 million to £312.4 million during the period. Overcommitment, the level by which commitments exceed cash and near cash, decreased to £233.7 million, or 61.5% of net assets. No new commitments were made in the quarter.

I'm unclear what a "commitment" is. Is it a binding agreement to lend to, or subscribe for shares in an investee company or fund at some future date?
If so, the apparent discount is explained, and it would mean I won't touch it.

Any ideas, please?

[donalc] 17/3/2009 10:12

This current price does not make sense. Unless the market believes the managers here are so incompetent that they will lose the cash they have (that alone more than share price) and all investments made are worth nothing.

[donalc] 16/3/2009 15:19

This sounds positive:

TIDMGPE

RNS Number : 9181O
Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC
16 March 2009

?
ANNOUNCEMENT TO STOCK EXCHANGE


GRAPHITE ENTERPRISE TRUST PLC


16 March 2009


Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC ("Graphite Enterprise" or the "Company") expects
to release its final results for 31 December 2008 no later than 3 April 2009.
The Company previously announced that it would release those results on 19 March
2009.


The delay in the release of the results has been to allow for the clarification
of certain technical issues. These have now been satisfactorily resolved and
will not impact the Company's net asset value per share or any other aspect of
its performance or operations.


Graphite Enterprise's net asset value per share as at 31 December 2008 is
estimated to be in the region of 449p.At that date, the Company had no debt and
had cash and near cash of GBP139.0 million (191p per share), representing
approximately 42% of the Company's total assets.












For further information, please contact:
+--------------------------------------------+---------------------------+
| Graphite Capital | Tel: [phone] |
| Rod Richards / Stephen Cavell / Tim Spence | |
| | |
+--------------------------------------------+---------------------------+





This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

STRGUUWCWUPBGPQ

[nil pd] 30/12/2008 20:47

Completion of sale of Interests (Graphite Enterprise)




RNS Number : 9062K
Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC
30 December 2008


ANNOUNCEMENT TO STOCK EXCHANGE

GRAPHITE ENTERPRISE TRUST PLC

30 December 2008

On the 3 November 2008 Graphite Enterprise Trust PLC ("Graphite Enterprise") announced
that it had exchanged contracts to sell interests
in ten funds ("the Interests") to funds managed by AlpInvest Partners NV ("the Purchaser").

The sale of the Interests has now been completed on the terms agreed with the Purchaser.

Graphite Enterprise will announce its annual results for the year ended 31 December 2008
on 19 March 2009.

For further information, please contact:
Graphite Capital Tel: [phone]
Stephen Cavell/ Tim Spence




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

[a1samu] 24/12/2008 11:50

NAV of 494p is an out of date number. It was out of date already when it was published and the directors know that.

It is bordering on the fraudulent, when with modern computer equipment and facilities, NAV can be reported and is reported on a daily basis.

Since the market for trade sales and IPO's is dead, one should really value all the unquoted holdings at zero, unless there is compelling reasons stated, why the holding has any value at all.

No one knows what horrors are contained within the fund investments, because the directors have not yet told shareholders about them. Be sure that there are massive horrors contained within the funds in this no IPO or trade sales environment.

The market recognises this and accordingly slashes the share price. The only people not prepared to recognise it is the directors, who mislead their own shareholders in a selfish and massive, bordering on the fraudulent way

It is in their interest to keep values up, I suppose, because their remmuneration depends on that. In the meantime, sherholders are left with no income and massive capital losses.

[goldthorpe] 11/12/2008 08:44

Well after the sale of funds the NAV is down to 494p. The market value of the company is presently about 146M and the amount of cash or near cash is 125M, though the latter is of course destined for future commitments.

I still think that on a two to three year view the share is a buy. We'll see.

[a1samu] 03/11/2008 10:13

THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF AN ORDERLY WITHDRAWAL, AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES.

WE ARE ONLY AT THE BEGINNING OF A MASSIVE RECESSION, WITH THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS OVER, THE MARKETS ARE BOUND TO SLUMP WITH NAV RAVAGED FURTHER.

IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF OVER THE COMING YEARS NAV WILL REDUCE TO THE LEVELS OF THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE.

[goldthorpe] 03/11/2008 10:02

...on the other hand, if the overall NAV is discounted by say 20% we go down to NAV per share of about 416p. That means the current share price is trading at a discount to NAV of about 57%. Could be a screaming buy on a two to three year view?

There was an interesting article on the private equity "rout" in last week's IC by Tony Dalwood, Head of Private Equity at SVG, finishing. ..."with discounts to NAV at historic highs...private equity offers investors significant potential returns on the way up." He's talking his own book of course.