Great Portland Estates Share Discussion Threads

[roger-lawson] 11/2/2013 15:54

The figure reported on the AIC web site is currently 23.2% which is usually the best to look at because so far as I recall, they get all reports from investment companies on asset values (some of which are not put in RNS announcements).

[killing_time] 11/2/2013 15:45

Hi SKYSHIP, i took it off the link below.



Though it did say "estimated".

[skyship] 11/2/2013 15:01

kt - no RNS on ADVFN or Investegate - so is that estimate off the website, or elsewhere?

[killing_time] 11/2/2013 13:18

The estimated NAV today is 596p.

So at 450p a share, the discount has opened up again to about 25%.

[killing_time] 11/12/2012 08:04

Nice jump in the sp, havn't seen any news why.

[roger-lawson] 05/10/2012 11:42

Good announcement today from Graphite. But our comments on the Interim Results issued last week are in this note on our web site: www.sharesoc.org/Graphite_Update_1.pdf

Discount to NAV still way to high.

Roger Lawson, ShareSoc

[topvest] 24/9/2012 19:15

I've bought a few today. It's a well run trust with a good record. The discount will close in time. All private equity is on a big discount still.

[roger-lawson] 15/8/2012 13:04

ShareSoc has just issued a press release on Graphite Enterprise (GPE) regarding the formation of a shareholder action group to try and get something done about the high discount to NAV – see www.sharesoc.org/campaigns3.html where shareholders can register their interest.

[skyship] 02/8/2012 18:34

Unaudited NAV:

In the three months to 30 April 2012 the unaudited net asset value per share rose by 2.6% from 569.4p to 584.2p.

Sp = 380p

NAV Discount = 34.9%

What will the NAV be at end July:

Answers on a postcard to this thread please....

[killing_time] 23/6/2012 12:07

Over the last few days we have had directors picking up a few shares.

21/6/2012

SP 380p
NAV 578p

Discount 34.39%

[killing_time] 10/5/2012 11:23

Discount closing to 25%.

[roger-lawson] 08/4/2012 15:19

No flaw at all in essence in your thinking. Indeed some VCTs now have an active secondary market in their shares simply because investors realise they have an active buy back policy so can be assured of getting out in future if they want to.

Regretably many investment trusts think it is not in their interests to do large buy backs or tender offers. It does of course shrink the size of the trust, which is not in the fund managers interest so they often advise against it (it directly reduces their fund management fees), and even the directors often think it might reduce their pay if the trust is smaller! There is of course often too cosy a relationship between the directors and the fund manager with the former often being in place for many years. The directors often get appointed on the advice of the fund manager to start with so you can see how incestuous the whole thing tends to be! From past experience, it is only when shareholders kick up a fuss that this cosy relationship is challenged.

[killing_time] 08/4/2012 13:03

Hi Roger,
Had a read of the Dundin Enterprise Trust. They look proactive on trying to close the share price to NAV and i like the idea of reducing the companies commitments to the longer term investments.
The question is will trying to close the gap between the share price and NAV have an effect on the long term NAV which has been doing well over the longer period?.

I have an idea which could close the gap to within 10% but i do not know if it is workable with investment trusts.I hold about 5 or 6 VCT's and because there is no demand for the shares on the secondary market the share price tanks but this isn't a problem because if you want to sell, the companies will buy the shares back at 10% lower than the NAV. If Graphite were to do this it could close the gap quite quickly and with the price within 10% there would be no need to keep buying as people would use the market makers to get a better price.
There is probably a major flaw in this idea which i have missed. KT.

[killing_time] 08/4/2012 12:43

SKYSHIP,
Agreed the F&C investment trust has performed poorly over the last 20+ years, especially if you compare them to enterprise trusts. For me the F&C investment trust makes up the core holding of my pension being stable and paying a regular dividend then around this i have my risky assets like Graphite, Asia, Latin America ect.
When i started my pension 20 years ago F&C were one of the first to do SIPPS and being cheap i just stuck with them as i watched the pot grow, because it is with F&C i am limited to their products so if i wanted to put better trusts in today i would need to change SIPP provider which i know i should do but i just do not like messing with my pension when it has been one of my best investment decisions.
Though if it was in my share account or ISA it would have been long gone.

[skyship] 07/4/2012 09:33

Roger

There is a lengthening list of trusts facing up to reality or being forced to do so by activists. Trusts need to implement active discount management schemes; or wind up and get out. The non-exec directors will lose their sinecure 25k salaries (no loss there then) and the investment managers will lose their cosy fees – but the Industry needs to learn that shareholder value must always come first.

HPEQ Strategic Update circular – Sept'10


SVI Strategic Update circular – Dec'11


We need to see more of these Updates. Henderson was particularly selfless as they realised that their scale prevented them performing in the longer term; and that the PE model is broken if the Market immediately discounts by 30%, 40% even 50% any new investment the Trust might make.

In this regard, Aberdeen surely needs to step up to the plate over APEF

I own APEF, HPEQ, LMS, MTH & PIN & SPPC

[skyship] 07/4/2012 09:12

killing_time - You must have the patience of Jove for holding such a miserably performing trust as FRCL for 20yrs!! The days of BUY & FORGET are long gone.

Ditch it - they don't deserve to squander your cash in that way. The big, old trusts are a disgrace to the IT Industry.

Reinvest in APEF, MTH or PIN and give yourself some real out-performance over the next 2/3 years

Looking at the chart below you will see WTAN & FRCL treading water for 15yrs whilst other random trusts perform as they should:

[roger-lawson] 06/4/2012 12:58

I certainly would not want Graphite to wind up. But the issue of cash commitments to "funds" can be solved. Some of these funds are actually Graphite managed funds, so why not simply do the investments directly instead? It's really a very bad business model having to keep lots of cash in reserve so as to meet future "commitments" when it could otherwise be returned to shareholders and is generally not generating much return. Dunedin Enterprise tackled this issue in several ways because they got into the same bind - I strongly recommended you look at what they decided to do. This gives the details: www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111010700322118R

[roger-lawson] 05/4/2012 14:52

The board said the same think at last years AGM about the discount, which in my view is simply not good enough. Increasing the dividend might help a wee bit but it's still going to be a pretty low yield. I am writing to the Chairman pointing out that if others can tackle high discounts in a vigorous manner (such as Dunedin Enterprise, and what Laxey Partners want 3i to do), why cannot Graphite?

Roger Lawson, Chairman, ShareSoc

[killing_time] 05/4/2012 14:22

All looking pretty good, nice rise in the dividend for this year.

[18bt] 05/4/2012 07:35

Decent results this morning. NAV at year = 569.4. Plus disclsoure that disposal of Data Explorers and IPO of Ziggo have added 6.3p per share. So current discount = 32%. Board says that it is aware of the discount problem and is working on it, but I think they will need to look at a significant tender like SVG. Very happy to hold these and may top up as the PE industry is still working on a lot of realisations.

[skyship] 14/2/2012 11:54

Roger - yes, LMS has already agreed voluntary liquidation. Bearing that in mind they are surprisingly cheap, especially as they have 34% of the current Mkt Cap in Cash & near-cash (19.5p versus 57p sp).

With an NAV @ 91p and allowing for a liquidation value at 80p (a good discount surely), then assuming a 2.5yr term to 30th Jun'14 (also sufficiently conservative), the Gross Redemption yield = 15.3%. One can play all sorts of games with the anticipated payout and the Term to produce varying GRY returns; but I prefer to shoot for a conservative figure to underwrite the investment proposition. Hopefully we will soon receive a Strategic Update to give us an official handle on my projections.

[roger-lawson] 14/2/2012 10:26

APEF is an Aberdeen managed fund, registered in Guernsey I think (at least that's where they hold their AGMs. Knowing Aberdeen, they would make life difficult for any challenge though. LMS is already in wind-up mode I think (surely that was voted through recently). But I'll certainly take a look at those two and PIN.

[skyship] 13/2/2012 18:38

ROGER - would have posted more earlier, but was being called for lunch!

I am a fairly recent convert to the current attractions of the Private Equity sector - see the PE thread.

My interest was stimulated by great success with HPEQ in 2010/11 - a small PE company which finally waved the white flag and went for voluntary liquidation - see the SL thread.

As we all know - Timing is everything in this game; and it looks as though the increasing number of PE companies providing tenders and buybacks will provide very attractive turns for 2012. The NAV discounts had fallen to absurd levels, so raising new money is impossible and new investments are difficult to recommend when the Market immediately discounts them by 30%, 40% .... or even 50%.

I am plagued by the need to grab profits; and have already done so in DNE, PEQ & SEP - still hold APEF, LMS & PIN.

APEF looks particularly attractive @ a 46% NAV discount. They have a Continuation Vote next year. There are three large holders controlling 68% - so hopefully they will see sense from liquidation. Aberdeen will need to substantially close the discount to make a pretense of concern for shareholder value over and above their concern for management fees!