Granby Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[deswalker] 27/9/2007 17:24

One final thing, it is quite instructive to compare Nido's and Forum's market caps against their Galoc shares. Ofcourse these companies have other assets too (as does GOIL) but the discrepancies are way too big. Forum is a piece of junk so no interest there but Nido's share price seems to value Galoc much more highly than does GOIL's (assuming the market doesn't know something that I don't about its Palawan explo acreage). To me GOIL looks much better on relative value basis. I believe it to be overlooked and under the radar ...

[deswalker] 27/9/2007 17:16

Check out slide 23 of this presentation ...



and similar presentations before this date. Since this date they've been rather more cagey about presenting this slide just talking in terms of "70% Cost Oil, 7.5% FPIA, 60/40% Split in Profit Oil after other incentives".

As I'm sure you are aware individual PSC terms can vary and I've a feeling that Galoc is under an older PSC offering the Production Allowance (it is a landmark project remember). I tried to enquire about this from Nido a couple of years ago but got nowhere. As you say it really makes a big difference to the PSC.

GOIL management and Vitol are very shrewd and obviously will have spotted this when deciding to get involved IMO. Also the historical Cost Pool.

The impression I get is that management know that Galoc is probably worth more than the mkt cap on its own and especially so if Phase 2 comes in. Yesterday I saw a link to a newspaper clipping (link on Nido website somewhere) saying Phase 2 drilling in early 2009 all being well with production up to 25kbopd ! Take that at face value for the time being but I'm sure GPC have plans ...

Management are in this to grow the company substantially. Galoc is a fantastic asset but it will obviously not multibag the share price They need to hit a gross 100mmbbl prospect in the N Sea with a 20% interest to see that happen (like Anglessey for example) but on a balance of probabilities, with the share price extremely well underpinned, I'm betting on them to do it eventually.

Finally they've got a history in North Africa, Europe and the Middle East. They've done some research work onshore Morocco in years gone by and it wouldn't surprise me if they don't get a foot in there eventually.

Finally, check out the one and only GOIL presentation ...



in particular slide 17 which shows where they are intending to drill next year. They've just completed seismic over some of these blocks. See recent RNSs.

HTH, DYOR and please let me know if you find any more on the Galoc PSC.

[deswalker] 27/9/2007 16:08

To my understanding the PSC terms are:

Gross Revenues = X

(1) Cost Oil = Up to 70%*X available (historical pool is about $68 mill to add to $90 mill development costs)
(2) FPIA = 7.5%*X goes to Contractor.
(3) Production Allowance = 49.9%*[X - (2) - (1)] goes to Contractor.
(4) Profit Oil = X - (1) - (2) - (3) is split 60%/40% between Gov and Contractor.
(5) Income Tax = 35%*[(2) + (3) + 40%*(4)] in total is payable to Government but only the balance after taking into consideration the Profit Oil they've received already. This drops to 30% in 2009 IIRC.

That's my understanding anyway and what I have running through my spreadsheet. As a consequence I'm using about $20 per barrel in the ground and that's very conservative. But make sure you DYOR on this - all the presentations are out there either on GOIL's website but mainly on Nido's.

As for Tristan, I haven't done anything similar but I'm assuming $5 per boe in the ground. I don't think that's too aggressive for a near-development tieback with first gas very shortly after drilling. Regarding the 54%, it has never been explained how this was arrived at but I don't think its going down to 35%. My guess is that Mosaic didn't want the extra due to financing issues ??

Read back through my posts here (they go back a couple of years by now). Many links are included to the big Nido presentations and other stuff.

HTH, DYOR

[rapier686] 27/9/2007 15:44

I've been looking at Granby over for the last week or so and come to very much the same conclusions as you just posted in the other place.


Prospective Galoc revenues appear to cover the bulk of the current price. Am I right to understand the PSC terms to be 47.5% of profit oil to contractor after taxes (ie the project has the full 15% Philippine involment)?

Is Tristan really a 54% interest or is it set to drop back to 35% post financing as per the original RNS?

Do you have much of an idea what operating costs are likely to be for Tristan and how much will be coming off the gas price before it gets to their pocket?

[deswalker] 27/9/2007 08:48

Nido RNS but nothing from GOIL ...



As an aside, I wonder if GOIL might be looking to get Tristan up and running and then possibly do a swap deal with Dana exchanging part of Tristan for a larger share of Monkwell and Operatorship. Monkwell would seem to be off Dana's radar for now and GOIL could drive its development. A deal which could well be beneficial to both parties ...

[deswalker] 25/9/2007 16:30

Full details of the drilling schedule. Makes very interesting reading.

Looks like the FPSO is expected on site in Feb followed by hook-up and first oil soon after.

[deswalker] 24/9/2007 08:37

The drillship came on hire today according to a press release by GPC. It is due to set sail by the end of the month and on site about a week later. Drilling until late December and first oil in Q108 once the FPSO arrives.

[deswalker] 13/9/2007 16:29

Looks like the Ensco 100 (Tristan rig) is back on track ...

[dreggspicker] 13/9/2007 08:08

Thanks Des, I should have looked at Egdon, to find out, will remember next time.
dreggs

[deswalker] 12/9/2007 15:16

dreggs

According to Egdon it is scheduled for Q407. Galoc drill rig currently sailing to Singapore for loading, then off to drill Galoc. The rig owner has 5th Oct pencilled in for start of drilling and Christmas for the end. Then it's undersea work & hook-up etc and hopefully first oil by end of Jan IMO. Not sure where Tristan rig is. Was off west Africa last I heard and the tow boat had just pulled out of the contract to bring it to N Sea. Hopefully they've found a replacement. Still very bullish about GOIL. Totally overlooked IMO. Some of the junk out there simply doesn't compare to the expertise here IMO. DYOR.

Des

[dreggspicker] 12/9/2007 15:04

Thanks for that Des;
Are we not due a up date for the Barton Agnes onshore well by now?
Regards, dreggs

[deswalker] 12/9/2007 11:11

Fox Petro gave an update on Anglessey yesterday ...



Targetting drilling in H208.

Sounds good that they're looking at other farm-in opps which will hopefully involve GOIL.

[deswalker] 28/8/2007 17:54

A good day here. The AR is now on the website and reads very well. I'm confident that these guys know what they're doing. IMO, DYOR.

[deswalker] 28/8/2007 14:37

pinkpanther,

Check out the Major Shareholders section of the GOIL website. Five Instis hold 36.59% and eight Directors hold 33.54% leaving 29.97% (= 10.91 mill shares) for Private Investors and other Instis below the 3% threshold. Very tightly held.

Good luck to you too :)

Des

[thepinkpanther] 28/8/2007 12:50

Shares in Issue 36.405m (24 August 2007).........by proquote

and that is not many

good luck.

[deswalker] 28/8/2007 11:21

Decent chunks of these will be very hard to come by once Galoc and Tristan come on line. Way too cheap IMO.

[deswalker] 14/8/2007 09:19

Just topped up here. Unbelievably cheap compared to the other small oilies IMO. Galoc drilling due to start in early October then Tristan soon after. In six months time this company will have substantial oil and gas production with a major explo drilling programme to follow. Check out their plan of works on slide 17 ...



Since then we've had news of the seismic surveys, Atlantic and Fox Petro farming in to Anglessey and a joint survey with PetroCan over 13/25. Burton Agnes drilling has been moved back to December I believe.

Note also the North and South Galoc structures on slide 10. It's here where Phase 2 (another 18 mill barrels) is planned should Galoc run smoothly.

Very small free float will see substantial rises if all goes to plan. That's what I'm betting on anyay. DYOR.

Des

[robizm] 01/8/2007 18:16

shares down over 20% in last 2 weeks on no news or voloume. Does not look good.

[dreggspicker] 01/8/2007 16:49

ok, I was tempted, and had another little tickle, for what it's worth.

regards to all long suffering holders, dreggs

[dreggspicker] 01/8/2007 16:07

must say I am tempted for some more of these,at this price, ( surely they have to hit some gas on the next drill!) on land this time, should spud soon.

dreggs

[robizm] 25/7/2007 19:15

Why do these shares fall on no news. Surely drilling must be starting soon? I topped up with 5000 today though.

[sandbank] 18/6/2007 15:39

BAHT: ...Patience!. Bet you are glad you didn't sell!

[baht] 07/6/2007 11:56

Anyone know why the large drop over the last few days? I know the markets are a little down but this seems to be surpassing the trend.