Grainger Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 06/10/2009 19:18

Had a big spike up 15p+ at one point today. Having broken out and taken off I think these will go to 375p from here.

CR

[mroalan] 06/10/2009 19:11

looks like reversal day

[coby4] 01/10/2009 09:13

indeed, if the figures mentioned in the interim have crytalised they have achieved some good sales figures in a very hard market

[cockneyrebel] 01/10/2009 08:36

Nice break out on good news - 380p test here in the coming weeks imo.

CR

[davebowler] 31/8/2009 15:32

SDIC is a steal compared to this- no refinancing risk, way below asset value, and no boom and bust cycle to worry about.

[coby4] 27/8/2009 10:55

a few people had read the company it's last rites and shorted, early days but prospects looking good

[david.susies] 24/8/2009 12:05

Why has nobody commented on this good performance?

[coby4] 12/8/2009 12:22

interim statement had a good spin as expected, refinancing of part of the huge debt could result in another positive move soon. a big jump though on little volume

[kibes] 12/8/2009 11:57

Another Evil Knievel short goes through the roof!

[coby4] 30/7/2009 21:04

bit quiet on here!!

share price creeping up, blip going into eighth month - anyone still shorting?

[altitude] 02/7/2009 07:53

Well I'd prefer a more pragmatic approach. I'll wait until the share price falls to around the £1.00 mark or market cap is at around £140m. Might be worth a punt then at £140m. Sell off the stock, pay off the debt and pocket £89m less disposal costs and staff reduction costs. Even after all the costs are deducted and I'm left with say £22.5m (so in effect my costs have accounted for £67.5m), that's a 16% return on my investment.

Ps thanks coby4 for the information on stock valuations

[coby4] 01/7/2009 22:15

altitude you are seriously misinformed. they are selling tenanted stock at the moment via auction because of the specialist nature of the product and of course to generate cash. they never have sold the majority of their vacant stock by auction

secondly if your first statement was correct you have yourself invalidated your second statement. is the 17.5 for sale their own stock or that of 3rd parties - where is it?

your 3rd statement is also incorrect. other companies in the sector trading on similar assets have had the model you suggest. grainger have generally sold unmodernised on vacancy as their own property for sale website shows

they revalue stock each year - validated independantly - soon see!

[altitude] 27/6/2009 09:16

The majority of Graingers low end value stock that you talk about are sold at auction and not through agents as you state, and they are sold with sitting tenants on regulated tenancy agreements - so they DON'T appeal to young families and first time buyers.
Secondly, they have over £17.5m worth of property for sale in one area, that just floods the market and gives an over supply which in turn results in downward pressure on prices. That's called Economics, not agent BS.
Thirdly, Graingers had a predictable business model. Waiting for tenants to die and then refurb houses to sell on at a substantial profit. They are now selling properties with the tenants in to other investors through auctions.
It is simple Graingers need cash desperately to survive, they are over leveraged, if they revalued their stock they would breach their covenants.

[coby4] 26/6/2009 22:41

bollx
there's a shortage of good stock, their low end value still represents what first time buyers or young families want. our agency branch has sold more property in the last 4 months than the whole of last year we have even taken negotiators abck on. this blip is going into its seventh month. these guys are well placed to weather the storm

[n1ck_leeson] 22/6/2009 08:47

anyone who's not short of this should question their judgement! how can this company survive?

[altitude] 21/6/2009 22:16

So basically there business model that it suggests in the last YE accounts has changed and shareholders are exposed to more risk from 1. the lack of cash coming into or already in the business and 2. the tightening of credit policy throughout the UK financial markets is not assisting Grainger in finding the necessary buyers and 3. Graingers properties only become worth what potential buyers can raise and nothing to do with market valuation?

[coby4] 21/6/2009 21:18

i guess the need to service the considerable debt outweighs the opportunity to wait until they actually come vacant

[altitude] 17/6/2009 07:55

If Grainger have predictable income from regulated tenancys that become vacated - ie they know from acturial calculations life expectancies. Why would they want to sell off properties in local auctions before the properties become vacant and also in the knowledge of larger capital gains when predictable vacancy occurs?

[coby4] 26/5/2009 18:01

share price surprisingly robust considering write down and holding back dividend

how's your short looking?

[wiseacre] 29/4/2009 16:02

Interesting to see rebound in share price along with rest of market despite fact that Schroder's has marginally cut its stake below 16%. I have now taken out short position and needless to say forecast considerable downside.

[coby4] 19/4/2009 23:22

there's no chance they won't meet the September covenant, sure they're going to get screwed by the cost of finance but they appear to have dramatically reigned in unecessary expenditure and have have a big cushion of rental income

w,bramley - sorry just got back from visiting Mickey Mouse with the sister's kids - all for their benefit of course!

i guess with a bit of luck you might have exchanged by now anyway. were you talking about paying 25% before you exchange? - your solicitor probably wouldnt let you do it. if you are talking about increasing your deposit to 25% it still doesnt give the vendor the comfort he's looking for from an exchange. as you are paying your solicitor you should be able to badger him and establish exactly what's holding the exchange up. although the agent is working for the vendor he only gets paid on completion so he should be absolutely gagging to get the exchange in the bag - i know i would be - phoning both solicitors on a daily basis to keep the sale together. the remarketing may just be a ruse to panic you and make you push your side as hard as you can

[dancing piranha] 17/4/2009 19:12

Evil must be leaking money like his jugular has been cut!

[wiseacre] 17/4/2009 17:40

To the Troll. Yes they did past the covenant test for 30 March and auction prices have been remarkably resilient. But be sure they will crack and the 30 September test is unlikely to be met. I don't know why I am making this post as i want to see the share price rise further so the harder the fall!