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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Grainger Plc LSE:GRI London Ordinary Share GB00B04V1276 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 240.60p 240.20p 240.60p 243.40p 238.40p 243.40p 195,998 10:57:28
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment & Services 270.7 100.7 21.0 11.5 1,472.74

Grainger Share Discussion Threads

Showing 126 to 150 of 450 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
01/12/2008
11:09
coby4 - yes I agree the rental income looks secure and the lenders would be crazy to take control of the properties, they will get nothing like the underlying value if they try to sell them. But banks are getting jittery and could easily panic like they have with Woolies. The underlying value of the assets was greater than their debts but despite that the banks have pulled the plug. But in the fire sale which follows they probably won't get their money back.
kibes
29/11/2008
17:46
but they secured substantial extra funding in the last year when others have found it difficult to do so - got to be a good sign? if they can carry on servicing the debt in the short term why would there lenders want to take control of over 10,000 properties? mostly either rent protected tenancies or tied into their property reversion schemes which would limit the field of buyers. bit more director buying would be nice
coby4
28/11/2008
12:56
coby4 - how can you value properties with long term sitting tenants which right now nobody wants to buy? Just based on the rental income I suppose. The attraction of their business model is these properties when they eventually become vacant will be worth much more. But will Grainger still be around to benefit from that or will debt kill them first? It all depends on their banks playing ball which is extremely questionable in the current climate.
kibes
28/11/2008
11:29
well - 2 directors buying - 37,500 shares .
pyman
28/11/2008
09:50
they claim the portfolio is worth more than the debt - presumably there has to be some independent confirmation of their valuation? they also say that there is a much larger reversionary value although this could only be realised if the properties were vacant. as most of it has sitting tenants this isnt easily achieved. definite upside if (big if) market sentiment changes and access to mortages improves
coby4
27/11/2008
17:57
Its very difficult to say whether this is worth anything or nothing really. Huge debts of £1.6 billion, does their property portfolio exceed that or not? Its anyone's guess but mine is not and things could easily get much worse next year. On the plus side there is plenty of rental income coming in and no immediate concern that loans will not be serviced, particularly if the rates might be reduced. I agree the banks will probably just go along with the situation unless something panics them. In a serious FTSE rally this could easily go back up to 200p as shorters are squeezed to the limit. Too uncertain for me either way at the moment.
kibes
27/11/2008
16:12
agreed no bid, £400 million is due June 2010 not 2009, guaranteed rental income, increased funding - banks must be happy, government looking to intervene in mortgage lending and prevent hasty house reposessions, new build almost dead, if they can weather the storm..........
coby4
27/11/2008
12:57
I agree with you they are probably bust, but they are certainly putting a positive spin on things. I shall wait until today's rally burns itself out before opening a short, the problem with short positions is bust companies can reach ridiculous highs as shorters nerves are tested to the limit. We are probably due for a major FTSE rally soon and this will drag GRI up with it. There will be no bid interest though, who would want the debt in exchange for largely unsaleable properties?
kibes
27/11/2008
12:08
I warned of a rosy hue on the accounts and the presentation IMHO is disgraceful. The salient facts are the company made a loss per share of 77.4p, borrowings have increased from £1.34 billion to £1.62 billion with repayment of £400 million due next June. A Gross NAV of 535p is meaningless as it does not take these borrowings into account nor the taxation on disposals. Burried in the accounts you will see anet NAV figure of 178p per share which, given the continued economic downturn and the fact it reflects the balance sheet date of 30 September, is hardly realistic
wiseacre
26/11/2008
13:42
Bearing in mind the company still has £1.5 billion in debt and against the precipitous fall in property values this company is probably bust. No doubt the forthcoming statement will put as rosy a gloss on trading as the board dares.(Just look at its previous statements). Holders really should make for the exit if they have any sense of reality. I admit I am talking my book. I have been short since the shares were at a level of 250p and remain short. They are likely to fall to 20p before any possibility of bid interest INMHO.
wiseacre
25/11/2008
13:15
big increase today decent results Thursday?
coby4
24/11/2008
10:48
How come the profit shown above says 77.5m but on tdwaterhouse to march 08 says 0.2m??
jdschwartz
11/11/2008
19:02
sandbank - if the bonds are worth less than 50% of face value how can the equity be worth anything much? I wouldn't bank on shorting pressure coming off.
kibes
05/11/2008
15:06
ERSTWHILE2: Thanks for that info. I was quoting a point made to me by someone close to the company but I'm not really across how this works (as you can probably tell). Do you think the shorting pressure is now coming off GRI now ...or not? Reading today's RNS - it all seems relatively positive. " sales from our core and retirement solutions portfolios for the year ended 30 September 2008 were 17.5% up on the previous year and that we were, and we remain, confident of meeting our interest cover covenant not only at that date but also at 31 March 2009, the next testing date."
sandbank
04/11/2008
17:56
No hedge funds which own the convertible need to unwind short positions, they just convert for stock and deliver that stock into their short.
erstwhile2
04/11/2008
16:59
sorry alex can you help me with your last comment. why would a lot of hedge funds be having to unwind short positions?
rd1881
04/11/2008
15:00
ALEX: Five oclock tonight is the deadline for the buyback of the convertible bonds I believe. A lot of hedge funds are having to unwind their short positions.
sandbank
04/11/2008
09:50
any reason for the massive rise today?
alexx
29/10/2008
17:17
LTV ratios getting too high on falling asset values. banks step in and start selling assets. that's what one needs to watch!
rd1881
29/10/2008
16:52
Bank covenants
erstwhile2
29/10/2008
16:47
Erstwhile2 - thanks also for the explanation. From what I understand the company has large debts (£1.6 billion) and in the current market it is unlikely its assets are sufficient to cover those debts. Therefore, it is technically insolvent. However, its tenants are still paying the rent and sufficient profits are still being generated to pay interest on the debts, so there is no immediate danger of a default. What is the principal source of pressure on the company in this situation? What is likely to be the event that might drive it into administration or liquidation? An inability to roll over debts perhaps?
kibes
29/10/2008
11:32
Just added a few more, only one up day after such a fall and now really struggling on a day when the market is well up.
alexx
28/10/2008
15:32
ERSTWHILE2: Thanks very much for your most erudite explanation. Who would ever have thought the share price would be down to this! Will GRI fall further or just get suspended I wonder?
sandbank
26/10/2008
10:49
wiley - 21 Feb'05 - 11:12 - 1 of 117 This is a great share for safety, which I bought for my wife at £10 and have been really pleased by it's progress and by the very good annual report on their web site. It gets you excited for the future. wiley will you be buying more. ???
vision88
25/10/2008
15:50
Gentlemen, Depending upon how one approaches this exercise, I think it can be argued that the implicit consequence of Friday's convertible redemption announcement is that unsecured debt of GRI is not worth more than 50% of face value. If so, GRI is finished. Simon Cawkwell
simon cawkwell
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