Grainger Share Discussion Threads

[rd1881] 04/11/2008 16:59

sorry alex can you help me with your last comment. why would a lot of hedge funds be having to unwind short positions?

[sandbank] 04/11/2008 15:00

ALEX: Five oclock tonight is the deadline for the buyback of the convertible bonds I believe. A lot of hedge funds are having to unwind their short positions.

[alexx] 04/11/2008 09:50

any reason for the massive rise today?

[rd1881] 29/10/2008 17:17

LTV ratios getting too high on falling asset values. banks step in and start selling assets. that's what one needs to watch!

[kibes] 29/10/2008 16:47

Erstwhile2 - thanks also for the explanation. From what I understand the company has large debts (£1.6 billion) and in the current market it is unlikely its assets are sufficient to cover those debts. Therefore, it is technically insolvent. However, its tenants are still paying the rent and sufficient profits are still being generated to pay interest on the debts, so there is no immediate danger of a default. What is the principal source of pressure on the company in this situation? What is likely to be the event that might drive it into administration or liquidation? An inability to roll over debts perhaps?

[alexx] 29/10/2008 11:32

Just added a few more, only one up day after such a fall and now really struggling on a day when the market is well up.

[sandbank] 28/10/2008 15:32

ERSTWHILE2: Thanks very much for your most erudite explanation.

Who would ever have thought the share price would be down to this! Will GRI fall further or just get suspended I wonder?

[vision88] 26/10/2008 10:49

wiley - 21 Feb'05 - 11:12 - 1 of 117


This is a great share for safety, which I bought for my wife at £10 and have been really pleased by it's progress and by the very good annual report on their web site. It gets you excited for the future.

wiley will you be buying more. ???

[simon cawkwell] 25/10/2008 14:50

Gentlemen,

Depending upon how one approaches this exercise, I think it can be argued that the implicit consequence of Friday's convertible redemption announcement is that unsecured debt of GRI is not worth more than 50% of face value. If so, GRI is finished.

Simon Cawkwell

[loafofbread] 24/10/2008 14:34

True.

I suppose it depends on how low they would go now?

(I hate to ask but do you still have a position in MDX?)

[simon cawkwell] 24/10/2008 14:18

loafofbread,

An interesting commercial problem: I am sure that GRI would be delighted to rid itself of the rump end of an estate and close its files - and would therefore be open to a discount offer. But if you wait another six months it seems very probable that values will generally be sharply lower and, further, you may be dealing with the liquidator of GRI instead of the surveyor who knows your estate. Such a resultant deal might be very attractive.

Simon Cawkwell

[loafofbread] 24/10/2008 13:43

I own 4 flats in an estate of 80 flats.

GRI sold us the freehold 2 years ago and now they only have 5 tenented flats left.

Have been thinking about approaching them directly to see if they wanted out.

Will GRI be happy to sell at a deep discount to raise cash or am I being hopeful?

(flats worth approx £100K so £.5M in their coffers)

[pugugly] 24/10/2008 11:35

erstwhile2:> Many thanks for your explanation. I think I agree with your last sentence.

[the troll] 24/10/2008 10:08

rubbish, these bond holders are so desperate for cash ( probably to meet margin calls elsewhere ) THEY approached the Company & asked it to initiate this redemption. IMHO, Grainger, having been offered the chance to redeem debt on very favourable terms, should take full advantage.

[pugugly] 24/10/2008 09:01

Can someone check my maths please

If I am correct for every £100,000 the package received by the bonholder will be woth some £44,953 at the current share price of 86 pence.

message to me is that (subject to the covenants on the bonds) this is a last ditch effort by the company.

[alexx] 16/10/2008 09:24

It's as wiseacre said in #107, it's very unlikely that their portfolio is worth as much as was suggested.

[rd1881] 16/10/2008 08:31

Price is really taking a thrashing this morning - down 10% at £1.50. Any comments?

[wiseacre] 10/10/2008 12:17

Well folks I Have warned you twice. It's quit remarkable how this share price held up before today's major correction. I am told some of the lads in North London are looking to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile management has been putting the best gloss it can on its portfolio but common sense should tell you that valuations are still far too optimistic. Get real and keep on selling.

[alexx] 09/10/2008 15:53

this is the only relevent bit
" The Daily Telegraph
PRICE COLLAPSE SEES HOUSE FALL IN ON GRAINGER'S PROFITS GROWTH
Grainger says it does not expect to see a growth in annual trading
profits this year, as declining house prices hinder the UK's biggest quoted
residential landlord. The company said total sales would increase 17.5 percent
to 143 million pounds but were unlikely to be in line with 2007 results. This is
because of the collapse in house prices and a greater proportion of investment
sales, where a property is sold on with a tenant in place."

[alexx] 07/10/2008 15:34

Not sure of details

"We write to confirm that Grainger plc has forwarded to the FSA two copies of the ordinary resolution, relating to an amendment to its borrowing powers, which was passed at its General Meeting that was held on 7 October 2008."

[wiseacre] 03/9/2008 14:14

This site's gone very quiet. Recent rise in price on government measures to prop up housing market looks like presenting a perfect opportunity to bail out.

With £1.6 billion of debt this company looks horribly vulnerable. Sell

[hectorp] 13/8/2008 10:04

Too many are over bearish of such situations now. Strong buy IMO.

I've increased my exposure to property plays, though mainly in Europe.

Rents will rise faster with people not willing to buy and move on.
My take is that private sector rents round the UK in general could be 15-20% higher in 12 months.
THis could well benefit this company.

[n1ck_leeson] 12/8/2008 09:07

these guys know what they are doing. holding up nicely.