Grainger Share Discussion Threads

[simon cawkwell] 11/6/2008 10:16

James93,

I am going for Wipe Out/Debt for Equity reconstruction (choose your form of words). My short term target is 150p - just to set matters in perspective. However, the balance sheet looks hopeless to me.

Simon Cawkwell

[james93] 09/6/2008 10:53

Simon ..... What is your target for these ?

[pyman] 08/6/2008 18:32

and my reliable authority says always open a bottle before you try to drink from it. There are alot of 'If 's in your theory.

[simon cawkwell] 07/6/2008 05:52

Gentlemen,

I am told that GRI's balance sheet on a mark to market basis dated 31st March 2008 overstates the gross (i.e. pre tax) value of properties by £483m. Allowing for tax at 30% takes true tnav down to perhaps Minus £30m. Given that the market is continuing to deteriorate quite rapidly the outlook for GRI is very bad.

The defect in my proposition/argument is that I do not prove this figure of £483m. Further, I cannot prove it. However, it has been put to me by entirely sober authority in the property industry. It has certainly not been put to me maliciously.


If a figure of the order of £483m is correct, it is presumably increasing and it is therefore true that the outlook for GRI's share price is very grim indeed. I think it is a compelling short at 250p.

Simon Cawkwell

[pyman] 06/6/2008 14:50

they do have debt and £400m head room . which site was he quoting on?

[benson] 06/6/2008 09:35

Those of you long may wish to consider Simon Cawkwell's words today (Evil Kneivil) - I cannot quote directly because it is from another site but he claims the true TNAV of GRI is minus £30m approx. The current caplitalisation is £340m. Also GRI have serious debt.

[eddie murphy2] 06/6/2008 06:41

Shares have been trending down for a while now and the sector is not in favour at the moment - bounce??

[sandbank] 05/6/2008 16:15

CARDINAL3: 5% rise today may indicate you are right. Someone else apart from you and I reckons this is undervalued and is hoovering up shares at 260-270. I came out at 374 - but I'm back in now!!

[cardinal3] 04/6/2008 12:24

I am not in this but watching after Andy Brough mentioned it on CNN the other week- since which time it has gone in one direction. I think Schroders have or did have a large stake in this through his UK smaller companies funds.

[pyman] 02/6/2008 17:45

NAV of a tad over a billion or £5.63 a share and share price at £2.72. hmmmmm. Times are hard BUT this is beyond a fire sale valuation. Watch for stake building from Private equity.

[pyman] 30/5/2008 17:05

urk. getting cheaper. Any more whispers re the seller??

[coby4] 29/5/2008 16:14

i heard that the covenant issue was to do with a specific JV and not the company as a whole, bad timing on some transactions allegedly

[coby4] 29/5/2008 16:02

and planning for the Waterlooville site which will benefit from the A3 Hindhead road improvements

[pyman] 29/5/2008 09:04

not to mention the prague site which is in the books at 7m euros i think but with planning worth a fist full of dollars.

[wolterix] 28/5/2008 20:25

thing to bear in mind with this company is their recent RNS on joint venture in Hammersmith... which you would expect to get planning permission later this year... time to dip back in as well for me I think, but let's see how low she goes

[pyman] 28/5/2008 19:49

interesting to note that the recent purchase fraconrhein ag for 46m euro has a assett valuation of Eu142m.
They will struggle if they cant offload due to market conditions but i reckon its time to have a few!

[bubbleandleek] 28/5/2008 08:43

Arbuthnot don't have the clout to knock a stock 18% on a 3.7% price cut whilst keeping the stock on a BUY rec!!!!

there's unfounded rumours out there in the stock along with an aggressive large seller who needs out the name...... the stock will bounce back to 350 when thi guy is cleared. all in my opinion tho!

[luderitz] 27/5/2008 22:23

Here's one reason for the fall. I'm staying out at the moment.

Grainger was 20.25p lower at 320.75p after Arbuthnot cut its price target to 525p from 545p on the property company.

[dontyo] 27/5/2008 12:20

looks like a bear raid, bouncing quickly.

[bubbleandleek] 27/5/2008 12:19

rumour doing the rounds they've broken their banking covenents which i personally find hard to believe considering the comments about their financial headroom and flexibilty last thursday. i'd put my neck on the line here and buy them at these levels. can't be right......on this fall the company should make an announcement

[dontyo] 27/5/2008 12:15

read again, """"leaked"""".

[ladyfarmer] 27/5/2008 12:15

so where's the rns?

[dontyo] 27/5/2008 12:10

some bad news leaked it would appear.