Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 18/11/2016 11:53

You'll never get 400k in one go at the quoted bid and if you submit that kind of order you will probably just move the price against you. 50/100k chunks usually aren't a problem but the mm's will try to be as neutral book as possible with a share as illiquid as GDP so it really depends on the underlying buyers and sellers to get even that.

If you really want to take that level in one go then try calling the house broker or one of the bigger holders that have recently RNS'ed a reduction in holdings and see if they have some more to sell and you can agreed a trade at mid.

[csmwssk12hu] 17/11/2016 00:34

Every time we have hit these levels in recent times gold price circa $1200 we have bounced back over 6p quite quickly, gold up a touch tonight maybe reflected on in morning

[sea7] 16/11/2016 11:19

At least from an operational perspective the recovery operations are delivering, as they have always done despite all the other external influences.

[wigwammer] 16/11/2016 11:16

"We are currently negotiating 3 contracts with South American producers for really good batches of material that we expect to announce this quarter.." (last proactive interview, oct 27)Another to add to the list, sea7.Re RR, I think it very unlikely Gerard would be complicit in underhand tactics, or having reviewed what happened, be party to covering it up.Of course there is a risk, but I suspect the biggest one is upside relating to the event - they escape unaffected and the shares jump.

[kimboy2] 16/11/2016 11:14

Well on strengthening the balance sheet I seem to remember it said somewhere that this wasn't being planned at GDP level but through a direct investment in Kili.

On the TSF the issue is the pit and the various different entities which have rights surface rights, liquidation rights etc. Clearly the only way they are likely to monetise it is through GDP so it is a question of bringing them all together. There are alternatives, just not as profitable.

On RR the problem to me isn't the money, which is just £300k or so net to GDP. The issue is trust. Clearly we don't know what the dispute is about but I think you can be certain that everyone supplying GDP will. They still appear to be supplying GDP, apart from RR that is.

I am not sure why the RR dispute is taking so long to resolve. It must be known to bothe parties what went in and what came out. The impression I got was that it wasn't about the meaning of the contract as Gerard hinted at in one of his interviews.

Personally I suspect the issue is about recoverability of the material sent and whether GDP did a good enough job. This may require some analysis of the tailings, which are presumably on the stock dam now as well as potentially some lab work on what the recoverability should have been.

[sea7] 16/11/2016 10:36

Well the gold licences should have been issued by now, I would not really expect an rns for an administrative process such as this, simply for it to be included in a general update. The renewal of the environmental protection agency permit is next and they should have submitted the documentation to the ghanaian authorities during Q2 2017, in other words now.

The RR issue is dragging on and the company did state the following in the annual report...Goldplat is confident that the dispute will be resolved in FY 2017.
That means sometime between now and the end june 2017.

We await a resolution on the KRA investigation into the tax affairs at kili which could lead to additional liabilities - no fixed timeframe here.

The TSF project is moving slowly due to the following...

The metallurgical research work completed at the end of May 2016 showed positive results and the process of selecting a final tailings deposition site remains ongoing. Our preferred site is a disused open-pit adjacent to GPL but regulatory, environmental and ownership issues have delayed finalisation of the acquisition of this site. GPL has the support of the Department of the Mineral Resources ('DMR') for the use of this site and a decision in FY 2017 is expected, after which final economics can be determined and the processing of the TSF can commence.

Again, this is shown as sometime between now and June 2017 for a decision and then
final economics can be determined. This could potentially push the TSF project back to the first half of FY2018 before any real traction is gained.

Kili should move into profitability by the end of december this year, however, it won't be until the end of march before the new plant is fully operational. We also have to remember that the kenyan govt will create its state mining entity soon and we will be required to cede 10% of kilimapesa gold to it - for nothing in return.

It takes about a year to fully install an elution column, so once the gold licences have been re-issued in ghana and the negotiations are complete, then they will make more progress on this capex project. They are only forecasting £18k of capex for stage 1 of the elution column in FY2017, this could mean the main part of the installation will be in H1 FY2018.

The company has a lot of work planned for this year and we still have the third elution column to install in south africa, which could easily be pushed back until H2 2018/H1 2019, when the current capex plans across the group and the ability to finance them is taken into consideration.

Gerard wants to strengthen the balance sheet, what form this will take is unknown as well and may bring forward a lot of capex items.

They have a lot to do and are getting on with it.

As to where the share price will go, who knows!!

[michaelfenton] 16/11/2016 10:10

Just my opinion that the RR problem is already factored in to the price although if GDP lose the argument then a further small drop will occur. I agree with sea7 and basically confidence in GDP has understanably fallen due to too many slips over the last few years. If everything falls in to place all will be well. I think we will be rewarded but lets hope no more bananas?

[discodave4] 16/11/2016 09:31

Let's hope it's soon!Hope your doing ok.DD

[sea7] 16/11/2016 07:55

Yep DD I cannot deny what you say and I dare say that it will take a few more quarters of positive returns, closing off on the outstanding issues and delivery on the stated objectives before others start to see this as an investable security.

[sea7] 15/11/2016 16:57

Yep we should hear about the CIL within a month or so.

[kimboy2] 15/11/2016 16:37

Well I don't think that they put my p/e figures all over the place. If it turns out a bad debt, and we don't know it will, then it is a hit to one year.

As for Gerard not buying well he does have 8m options. I know that is not the same as putting their own cash in, however if GDP gets to the 20p I expect then Gerard will get £1.3m on top of his salary.

That should keep him focussed on the task in hand.

As for the overhang I thought it was Nick Gomersall selling his.

The facts are that since Gerard took over there has been a plan which has been pretty much executed and some good, and improving, figures produced.

There was a lot of worrying about something bad that was going to appear in the prelims. It didn't.

Then the Q1/17 update was a worry, but were good.

No doubt things can go wrong out of the blue. However atm things are going pretty much right.

Next up the CIL.

[sea7] 15/11/2016 16:24

I am looking at this from a day to day perspective. The company has not received the disputed amount, therefore could not spend or allocate it. They mitigated this by selling down inventory to cover it. It is an amount outstanding which may or may not show up, however, they are not relying on it for day to day operations or to cover any payables. Yes of course the overall Profit and loss will change to reflect a worst case outcome, or any outcome other than full payment, should it transpire.

Keeping it in context, it will be a welcome addition to the cash pile if it comes in or a loss that has been budgeted for, if not provided for in the accounts.


We will not know if Brian sells, however, IIRC he did sell his stock in sula iron and gold shortly after stepping down. Not that its any indication of his intention here.

[shareholder7] 15/11/2016 16:10

Not often I disagree with you Sea but you are only looking at one side of the double entryDebtors go down 650 and net assets fall but P@L gets hit 650 which puts Kimboys PE ratio figures all over the place Minority interest is just 25% but we have already paid tax on this amount as profit last yearThen if we lose this case / arbitration it will prove GDP have learnt nothing and management just keeps slipping on Banana skins so what's next Share price is still not above where lamming sold out and I wish I sold when he did I am reasonably sure the overhang that is pushing down the share is Brian and if that were public it would pose a few questions Sill happy to match any purchase Gerard makes

[sea7] 15/11/2016 15:40

I know we haven't taken a hit yet, as it is shown as a receivable in the last accounts. My point was, that 'if' the outcome is that goldplat does not get to receive any of the disputed amount, then the only real effect will be in the net current asset value, as the debt is over four months old, the business has carried on regardless and the inventory was sold down a bit more to cover the value of the disputed invoices.

It would simply be written off, nothing else hangs on it.

The KRA investigation into the tax affairs at kili and possible additional liabilities is of more interest to me than the RR issue. The RR issue is a known amount and is contained to one contract. The KRA matter is still clouded in uncertainty.

[shareholder7] 15/11/2016 15:35

Sea we have not taken a hit on the £650, you said yourself in a post that we would have to write this off to P&L as it has not been provided for I have been a shareholder from the 16p level as I have seen warning signs before When lamming sold all his shares I still hoped I would suspect the Brain is off loading as he knows what is going on at GDP and as he is not an executive anymore he does not have to declare.If this is such a good bet why has no director (granted the new chairman bought a very small holding) bought in Come on Gerard I will match what ever you buy in at I don't think you will see any purchase though Sea as there are so many things that can and will go wrong Just my take on all this selling

[sea7] 15/11/2016 13:02

The issue with rand refinery was compensated for by the selling of some inventory, this action by the BOD ensured that the opex and capex continued as planned. If the worst case shows up, then the "hit" that goldplat takes will be in the form of a reduced net asset value per share, as the business has continued on without this bad debt being closed off as yet. It must be bore in mind that goldplat updated the market in july regarding the appearance of the dispute - some four months ago.

The other issues that are outstanding are the renewal of the gold licences in Ghana, which are taking longer than expected and the ongoing investigation into the tax affairs at kilimapesa gold by the kenyan revenue authority.

The fact that the ghana business is allowed to operate on a temporary licence is a good sign that the new licences will be issued.

The only unknown here is the KRA investigation into the tax affairs at kili. There could be a one off charge levied that as yet cannot be quantified. Then again they may conclude that all is now in order.

from the latest accounts..

34. Contingencies
The Kenyan Revenue Authority has conducted a preliminary enquiry on the tax affairs of Kilimapesa Gold (Pty) Limited which may result in additional tax liabilities. The directors remain confident of a favourable outcome.

.........

Looking beyond these matters, of which non are show stoppers, the view given by KB is where we should be focusing.

The drop in gold, in rand and dollars will be weighing on the share price, however, that is not something they can control and they can only manage how the business responds.

[kimboy2] 15/11/2016 11:23

Well I am basing my numbers on ongoing operations and future operations.

From the Q1/16 update annualised operating profit is about £3m pa. The profit from the CIL will be £0.7m - £1m pa and the operating profit on the stock dam could be £2.3m pa.

If you think a potential bad debt of £650k, only half of which is attributable to GDP after minorities and taxes, swamps what is happening elsewhere then I will have to disagree.

[shareholder7] 15/11/2016 10:58

Kimboy don't forget the £650 potential bad debt that might come I am waiting for the outcome before I buy anymore GDP

[kimboy2] 15/11/2016 09:47

My view is that on the basis of Q1/17 GDP is on a p/e of about 6. Once the kili CIL becomes operational we will be on a p/e of under 4 and once the stock dam comes on line we will be on about 2.5

That is not counting what the boys from Brazil come up with or the next elution column or PGMs or anything else.

IMV a p/e of 8 is probably a fair rating.

[csmwssk12hu] 15/11/2016 00:15

Good on the rise tonight should be good for Tuesday