Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 22/9/2016 11:01

Why don't you ask the company or St Brides for it. I presume that GDP were involved in it.

[sea7] 21/9/2016 20:38

Thanks DD, hope your ok, likewise.

I am trying to get a copy of the feature that International mining did on goldplat in their june 2016 issue. I do not have a subscription.



I do not suppose anyone on here has seen it?

[discodave4] 21/9/2016 19:56

Thanks KB2.May feel more positive next week!.It's a difference of opinion that makes a market!.S7 - hope your doing ok.DD

[sea7] 21/9/2016 13:26

The gold equivalent figure of 1593 ozs for rand contract, means that they will have achieved around $17 oz for 118,957 ounces silver produced. This is just over $2m or around ZAR28M had they sold it all at spot.

[kimboy2] 21/9/2016 13:06

The word on the street is that South Africa will do 36-40kozs.

It is a difference of opinion that makes a horse race.

Good luck DD

[discodave4] 21/9/2016 13:02

Fair enough KB2 and do appreciate your views, but I'm not as positive in terms of their future outlook, do not envisage that they will treble their pre tax profits by financial year end 2017.If I manage BE here then I'm out as do not believe they will hit 20p within my investment timeline.You mention the sudden increase in gold production but have they (?) as they are now reporting gold equivalents as well which skews the numbers.Good luck.DD

[kimboy2] 21/9/2016 11:16

I should also add that I think the margin was depressed by the backlog which was built up from a time when gold was $1300+ and primarily treated at $1100/oz.

The company did say that this backlog was a risk.

[kimboy2] 21/9/2016 11:07

Hi DD
The PBT for H1/16 was £395k and T/O was £10.6m giving a margin of 3.72%.

We know that the T/O for the year is approx £20m and PBT is £2m. That makes H2/16 PBT of £1.4m and T/O of £10m so margin is 14%.

There are plenty of reasons for the increase in margin - the elution capacity, the increase in gold price and the greater production capacity.

There are also plenty of reasons for thinking the PBT, and possibly the margin, will increase further - the CIL at Kili, the stock dam, South America etc

My point is that this is at Q4/16 and may be worth 10p at that point (even if the market doesn't think so). If these plans come to fruition then we could see 20p by this time next year.

A year ago when the share price was 2p then a 'realistic valuation' of 10-13p would seem like an extreme case of the rose tinted.

[dangersimpson2] 21/9/2016 11:02

Nobody knows where the share price will go short term. What we do know is that:

1. If Q4 operational performance in SA & gold price remain at current levels it should generate c£6m Annual Op Profit.

2. If current plans for Kili & Ghana are successful then a relatively modest capital investment will mean that these are at least break even, especially if Ghana can process material from South America.

3. Tailings re-processing should add something like £1m incremental op profit.

4. There may be other modest capex that will yield incremental operating profit with relatively short paybacks.

I believe that a market cap of £10m (EV £8m?) at 5.6p materially undervalues such a business. Whether the current fair value is 10 or 12p I don't know, I just know that it is likely to be significantly higher than 5.6p.

Also in a couple of years time if the good operational progress continues and the gold price doesn't collapse then a valuation of 20p+ could well be justified by the level of profitability at that time. That requires ongoing operational & commercial improvement and although we have seen some good progress in this area it isn't yet at a level where this outcome is the most likely state.

[michaelfenton] 21/9/2016 09:09

DD4- very happy to hear that.But you are still in right?

[discodave4] 21/9/2016 08:29

True, my GDP glasses however are now as clear as day!DD

[michaelfenton] 21/9/2016 08:16

DD4 - we are all prone to rose tinted expectations. We are all in AIM because perhaps we are a little greedy?

[discodave4] 21/9/2016 08:13

Sorry KB2 but based on their forecast year end pbt of £2m, even excluding any write offs and costs associated with the RR issue, their margin would only be 10%, 2011 with slightly less revenue their profit margin was 17.3%.Would also accept 10p - 13p, so why do you post 20p?DD

[michaelfenton] 21/9/2016 08:13

Kimboy2 - as usual you have hit the nail on the head.

[kimboy2] 21/9/2016 07:51

I would take 10-13p based on those figures, which are based on Q4/16.

The point about margins was that they were much stronger in H2/16 than H1/16. Indeed in H2/16 they were better than 2011.

The question is can the momentum be maintained.

[discodave4] 20/9/2016 18:33

Thanks KB2My point was margins have not improved (in response to your earlier post), earnings have not improved, I accept they are sorting things out but even by your calcs for 2017 a share price of only 10p - 13p is realistic, not anywhere near the 20p that has been bandied about.DD

[kimboy2] 20/9/2016 08:19

I make the figures;

2011 2016 2017 Rev 19.6 20 30PBT 3.4 1.3 4Tax 0.47 0.56 1.1Minority 0.2 0.39 0.754PAT 2.82 0.35 2.2PAT% 14.3% 1.75% 7.30%EPS 1.9 0.2 1.3SP 12 6 6P/E 6.3 30 4.6



2017 projection is based on Q4/16.

It is interesting to note that South Africa produced 18kozs in 2011 and could produce 36-40kozs this year. The full effect of this on overheads and costs is still to be seen.

Hopefully there is still the effect of the CIL at Kili, the stock dam and whatever is happening in South America.

[discodave4] 20/9/2016 01:42

Rev approximately £20m, pbt around £2m less RR debt plus costs say £1.35m, margin 6.7%, eps 0.8p?, PE 6.3, share price 5p.2011 revenue £19.6m, pbt £3.4m, margin 17.3%, share price 12p, eps 1.9p, PE 6.3.DD

[kimboy2] 19/9/2016 23:20

Well we have only a few days to wait till we get the results to find out whether they are what we expect or not.

On the forward looking statement I think it important that the broker report is worth reading. Unfortunately the VSA report wasn't.

It was forecasting a pbt of £168k for H2/16 when the outturn was, apparently, £1.6m.

They are forecasting a pbt of £0.827m for next year when the run rate operating profit at South Africa is likely to be £6m.

I understand under promise and over deliver, but this is ridiculous.

[shareholder7] 19/9/2016 20:09

Would agree with you DD New chairman in place just in time to counter the results, which will not be quite what we expect but it will be coupled with a positive forward looking statement Think we have been here before

[discodave4] 19/9/2016 19:54

KB2"Still don't really understand how production went up from 4.8kozs to 11."Guess it has something to do with reporting gold and gold equivalents which they didn't do for the previous quarter (thus it's not gold produced on its own per se)....may be wrong?.Still not looking forward to next week! :)DD

[kimboy2] 19/9/2016 18:21

We know the GDP figure is £2m pre tax, more or less. The revenue is about the same as the first half but the profit is 5x higher, so margins would appear to have expanded.

How much is down to gold price, increased capacity or greater efficiency I don't know.

Within the £2m there is a split between the 3 subsidiaries and also finance. I think finance will be more or less the same, but not sure.

IMV the more that South Africa made last quarter the better it bodes for 2017.

[flyingswan] 19/9/2016 17:35

This sentence may apply to Goldplat GDP:
"As far as the gold mining stocks, in another two weeks we will start to see earnings being reported, and the higher prices we have seen this year bode very, very well for their expanding margins. So any further weakness in the high-quality shares is likely to be short-lived.”

[dangersimpson2] 19/9/2016 12:57

Seems a good point for a new Chairman to be appointed with the turnaround well under way on a number of fronts and where disciplined execution should see high future rewards.

I hope that he is joining Goldplat because he feels there is a great future for the business and that will be reflected by him purchasing a modest stake in the business in the market rather than relying on an options package.

[sea7] 19/9/2016 12:10

The production increases in south africa have gone unnoticed by other players in the market. The drop off in Ghana has overshadowed the increases in SA.

When goldplats problems started to show up at the end of 2012, followed by the drop off in gold, it became apparent as time went on that it was going to take quite some time to "right the ship". This set of accounts that we will be seeing next monday, represent the last set of accounts which will contain the remnants of the troubles of the past.

I seem to recall discussing that 2016 was to be a year of recovery and expansion and that has been the case. This financial year and onwards is to be a period of expansion and growth.

These results should be a good read.