Golden Prospect Precious... Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 17/2/2016 18:28

FRES now over 9£!

[brucie5] 17/2/2016 15:59

Jimbo, your concerns are well taken. Particularly given the size of my holding in GPM now. However, my feeling is that the chart is telling a rather compelling story, and that we're now at the start of a pms bull market. It's been such a complete route of pm miners over the last 4 years, that, taken together with everything else, it makes sense that the market should now be re-rating them. And in my experience, charts often foretell news.

So here are my main themes again:

1. shortages of physical au/ag, caused by dwindling supply (mine closures) and increasing demand (for physical)
2. low to negative interest rates undermine the attractions of cash in the bank, particularly given next point:
3. anxieties around equity a markets - including fear of a crash- leading to rebalancing of assets into pms.
4. long term redundancy of 'fiat' money around the world, means bonds become increasingly perilous.

These are big ocean waves, and GPM is a tiny little matchbox boat, but with many hulls, but I'm trusting the management to have built it properly! Again, it has mainly Aus and Can miners, and some very respected cos among them. FRES is back on a charge as I write.

Let's keep talking, and see who turns out to be right.

[hazl] 17/2/2016 14:53

Jumbo for a while now I have been cautious with ETFs.Surely if there was a big problem in the financial markets then derivatives and assets that are basically just paper could be either manipulated or in a relatively recent case of a gold ETF,investors were offered cash instead when the firm went through dodgy times.
That after all negated the reason for getting into it in the first place.
Judging by what Raoul Pal said in a recent university talk,people are getting worried about where to put their cash or Nestle wouldn't expect to be PAID when people lend them money!
Yes that was from Raoul Pal he said you have to pay for the privilege of lending them money.Crazy times we live in.
I would rather have GPM myself.
I see gold is up again.
The minutes from the Fed meeting in January are this afternoon.

IMO

[jimbo55] 17/2/2016 13:53

Brucie5, the only thing you're missing is the likely timeframe. Even though I think the USD will eventually no longer be the World's reserve currency, I expect this to take several years at least to play out. I also cannot take any credit for the thinking behind Raoul's presentation. It made sense to me at the time I watched it late 2014, and events that have taken place since have proved his forecast to be sound (which is why I think this presentation was/is just so important). Given recent macro volatility, I don't think you can discount the USD going higher again, and that is likely to be Gold-negative in the short term.

I agree with you that PMs are a counter-indicator, but the miners are more of a risk asset than a safe haven (they're a greed play on Gold going higher) and they don't always move in lock-step with the metal, as those of us who went through the 2011 blow-off top could testify. This is why you need to be careful with GPM, as it will have much higher volatility than Gold itself. Not everybody can stomach holding highly volatile stocks. Also, if Gold does end up resuming its downtrend and ends up going sub-$1000 per ounce, unless you've got an exit plan to put into effect on GPM, you're likely to see a 30 - 40% loss from the current levels. Although I'm hopeful the Gold Bear is over, I cannot discount the possibility that it is not. Now is therefore a time to be careful and watchful I think. Maybe this in conjunction with the last paragraph is what you're missing.

Holding and trading longer dated US Treasuries is simple in terms of availability of an instrument by which to do so. The ticker is IBTL and it's an iShares ETF.

[hazl] 17/2/2016 13:44

NAV looked good yesterday
be interesting to see what it is today FRES blue by the looks of it.

IMO

[hazl] 16/2/2016 17:11

its doing well......

[brucie5] 16/2/2016 16:01

NAV 27.52.

[brucie5] 16/2/2016 15:42

Goin' up again.

Jimbo, I've listened to Raoul Pal and to be honest, find him quite difficult to understand. But I can see that both you and he believe the USD will be heading much higher, though from what you intimate, and many others are saying, the USD as an asset class is highly questionable on account of the FED's unpayable debts.

So for me, a case of occam's razor. Since I'm not sophisticated enough to trade long bonds or whatever, and I'm extremely nervous about broader stocks, I'm seeing pms as counter-indicator. Having sunk to capitulation levels, they are now rising, while equities are in descent. Not rocket science, but investors will be hedging at least part of their wealth by buying pms. Singer says 5-10%, which as a proportion of pension funds would probably be undoable, in terms of pm mining shares alone, without sending them all several times higher. Maybe some this will also find its way into industrial commods, which also produce silver/gold, and may be worth looking at funds like BRCI and CYN for this. But for me, GPM ticks all the boxes.

So that in itself makes me nervous. What am I missing!?

;)

[hazl] 16/2/2016 15:14

gold has certainly made its presence felt again today.....

IMO

[brucie5] 16/2/2016 13:08

Thanks very much. I'll follow these up.

[jimbo55] 16/2/2016 13:04

I tend to avoid the more lunatic fringe of the Gold Bull Crowd Brucie5, and I think these guys are it. It's important to maintain objectivity, no matter how much you might think the World is going to hell in a handcart. I actually intend to gradually increase my exposure to 20 year US Treasuries over the next week or two of what I believe to be a Bear Market rally. Longer term, I think these things are going to be toxic junk, but for the next 18 months - 2 years, they are likely to remain the safe haven of choice, and I'd rather buy into them on weakness. This is my core deflation trade right now.

Gold is my Central Banker Insurance Policy and hedge against ongoing and future monetary policy lunacy.

When it comes to reliable sources of information, I think you're much better keeping your eye primarily on the following Twitter Feeds as the information contained therein is, I perceive, of the highest quality and retains objectivity.






I would personally try to stay away from the more emotive BS end of the Gold Bull spectrum when it comes to the opinion pieces I spend my time reading. In terms of the Gold Price, it still very much remains inversely correlated to US Dollar Strength. I would keep an eye on the following (I keep posting this):



... and strongly recommend watching the following RVTV presentation by Raoul Pal from December 2014.



The themes contained in this presentation are still very much playing out. Personally, I wouldn't be writing off the US$ just yet... I am however interested to see if/when Gold can decouple...

[brucie5] 16/2/2016 12:18

Look like the retrace is stalling and pog may be coming off support.

Mozy, Jimbo, I don't know if any of you sane and sensible people have seen this:


It's scary stuff and there's a lot of it around at the moment. Though GPM is likely to be a big beneficiary, I also invest on behalf of family member who needs the income, and pms play very little part in that kind of folio, unless one thinks that collective vehicles like CYN and BRCI may be spared on account of their pm holdings. So far they've only been flattened oil and commodity proxies.

All rather worrisome. What do you guys think?

[hazl] 16/2/2016 12:12

GOLD is not to be underestimated,in my opinion and whilst I agree with some of the comments made you can get left behind and out of a stock if you're not careful
.
I have takn advantage of a slight drop back in some of them to get a couple of different stocks in case there is any more drama.
CEY OMI and GPM SHG are my main plays at the moment.

[mozy123] 16/2/2016 10:50

Indeed Jimbo - I sold GPM for a 14% gain and its dropped back. Still in sandstorm. Have a long term holding in blackrock gold and general which is up nicely this year.

Im just reducing exposure into strength. Just trying to trade to earn more shares.

As arnie would say "i'll be back"

Gold will trade in a band $1200-$1250 for a while until Yellen changes the tone of rate expectation i think.

[jimbo55] 16/2/2016 10:36

Brucie5, I suspect most institutional investors and pension funds will not come to Gold until the US Treasury game is over and by that time it will be too late for them to do it meaningfully.

Mozy123, I agree that the deflation trade remains on, but I would not lose sight of the opportunities presented to trade the swings in Gold. Also, it could be argued that the deflation trade weakens the banks (debt holders) and those asset's whose appreciation has relied on exponential credit growth, which may increase Gold's attractiveness as a haven. At some point, Central Bankers will panic and who knows what lunacy they'll be capable of when it looks like the system is about to properly cave in once again. Surely it makes sense to maintain some Gold exposure before this happens, as once it does it will be far too late to establish any kind of meaningful position...

Just my initial thoughts...

[labatie] 16/2/2016 10:00

You're right.

They're to all intents and purposes bid only.

[llef] 16/2/2016 09:33

cant get a buy quote on a very small quantity (3000 shares) this morning!

[brucie5] 15/2/2016 21:43

Look at slw today. See my post 699 for the chart.

Klondex also up very sharply. At 5 year b/o.



Odd.

[hazl] 15/2/2016 16:28

I disagree.
I a m keeping a look out for gold miners now as they retrace...gold may be the basis but the miners rise before the underlying commodity.The stock market is about the future,not the past.
Rather pleased to have a pull back so I can get a variety,now I have these.IMO

[mozy123] 15/2/2016 15:35

Untill the Fed reverses course I will be selling gold strength. There is deflation in the world and a shortage of $'s.

Loose policy must come to the world again.

[brucie5] 15/2/2016 13:44

Impossible to predict how far the retrace. Best guess is that some hot money will remove itself and the trend, if it is one, will recommence shortly.

The big story for me, does not go away. How will pension funds protect assets, without some diversification into PMS.

I've been keeping my eye on commodities, which seem mightily oversold. VED looks to have made some kind of multiple bottom since January. But unlike pms, the current economic situation imo makes industrial metals a very hard sell when demand is so weak.

Just my thinking. We've come up very fast.

B.