Golden Prospect Precious... Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 04/2/2016 18:50

You're right. Whoops. I'm looking forward to seeing if lief is right. If so, we should over the 150ma for first time since 2014, when it was 40p.

[tromso1] 04/2/2016 18:46

Brucie5 - the NAV in the RNS today was based on yesterday's prices so doesn't take today's gains into account.

[llef] 04/2/2016 18:43

around middle of oct, GPM NAV peaked at 25.47

This corresponded to a peak in the junior miners ETF (GDXJ)of 2331, with GBP/USD of 1.54

GDXJ is up 5% today to 2120, so with GBP/USD at 1.46 that "should" correspond to
NAV of 24.4 tomorrow....

[brucie5] 04/2/2016 18:10

Not quite there yet:

[brucie5] 04/2/2016 17:57

NAV 22.84. Less impressive than I'd hoped given the rises in the underlying.

[tromso1] 04/2/2016 17:36

Some good moves from some of the main holdings today.

FRES - up 8.6%.
CA:KDX - currently up 8.4%
CA:THO - currently up 6.5%
CA:SLW - currently up 5.4%

If those are anything to go by then the NAV should definitely be shifting upwards.

A lot of volume today and price breaking higher as people look to hitch a ride on the back of the rising gold price.

[stevieweebie2] 04/2/2016 16:36

great volume.

[stevieweebie2] 04/2/2016 16:14

Indeed, I think thats prob the case.

[llef] 04/2/2016 16:12

GDX is up another 5% today.
I expected a bigger bounce in NAV today given yesterdays bounc in GDX, but maybe the ozzie part of portfolio had closed before america bounced yesterady, so will be reflected in tomorrows NAV..

[nimbo1] 04/2/2016 15:22

had to pay 20.25

[nimbo1] 04/2/2016 15:17

Hope my timing here works out ok, just in with first purchase. In the other CYN trust in Jan for the same reason...how much worse can it get?!

[llef] 04/2/2016 14:14

GDX (gold miners ETF) had an outside month in jan (higher high and lower low than dec).
It broke and held above the Jan high of 1500 yesterday - hopefully this augurs for a decnet run for a while now.

[stevieweebie2] 03/2/2016 21:34

This going skywards tomorrow, hui flying high, nav will follow and so will the price, happy days.

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 17:44

Yup. I belive you're right.

[stevieweebie2] 03/2/2016 16:50

Brucie
I may be wrong but I think that its only the originator of the thread that can do anything with the header, that would be fordtin I think, dunno if he is even posting still

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 16:13

One more chart, if you'll forgive me. It'll update so you can keep up with the pog, along with the pos a few posts back. If someone can put them both into the header, so much the better.

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 16:07

Hopefully. Timing is perhaps 90% of investing. I'm confident that pms will recover, because value tends over time to revert to mean. But you can read accounts by pundits going back to 2013 prophecying the very recovery that we're currently believing to be imminent/overdue. On which basis, could be this year, next year..

[stevieweebie2] 03/2/2016 16:00

Hui currently flying and that is what the nav is lead by I think so should bounce tomorrow.

[stevieweebie2] 03/2/2016 15:40

Market selling off again.

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 15:38

Looks like a move upwards, and not before time. Take a look at this chart. We'll see the latest NAV shortly, which should be interesting. Gold too, has just broken through its 200ma. Will it hold?

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 13:15

Two further point re. silver, which are probably already known here:

1. 70% of silver is found while mining other metals.
2. the calamitous decline in metals prices therefore has a disproportionate effect on silver production.

Looking at the GPM chart, as against say, the the chart for BRWM, the fortunes of silver seem to have decoupled from other (base) metals. This may of course reflect my confirmation bias, as I've recently become a big bull on pms. But if metals producers are being stung even more severely than silver producers, the consequence of closing mines which happen also to produce silver will be clear. Silver seems to have reached a bottom since last summer, which is not to say that it can't fall further! But it had a temporary rally in September/October last year to $16, which is reflected in the GPM chart, above, which rose to 23p. We are currently not far beneath that figure, of course, in terms of NAV.

I've topped up again today, so hardly disinterested! Thereby choosing this as a safer, if less spectacular vehicle to the likes of HOC and junior miners, which seem to turn on a sixpence. The rise here, if/as/when it happens, I hope will be slow and steady, at least to begin with!

[brucie5] 03/2/2016 10:16

Copied from the HOC board, and posters here may have see it elsewhere already. It raises some interesting points. I don't know if it's still true, but not so long ago less than 1% of pension funds was invested in pms. A shift of a percentage or less would have an effect analogous to the one mentioned below, re. Apple.

-------------------------------------------------------------
2/2/2016. Former Fund Manager's thoughts on where we are at today.

I sense we could be on the verge of a major move on the upside with regard to the gold price and want to be positioned to take full advantage of it. IMHO, the following four factors are setting up conditions for a gold bull market.

1. The move of physical gold from west to east appears to be reaching a limit as the cupboard is almost bare in gold vaults in the US and UK. The only way the market can get back to equilibrium is through a higher gold price.

2. Institutional interest in gold stocks in the West is now almost zero given that the market cap of all listed gold producers (US, Canada, Aus, UK, SA) is less than $100 billion. As of this January, Apple had $215 billion of cash and cash equivalents on it balance sheet. It could theoretically buy every single gold producer in the world and still not use up half its cash pile! This vividly demonstrates the fact that institutions are chronically underweight gold stocks. Should gold and gold stocks move, they will all be forced to buy back into the sector as a defensive move to protect themselves from relative underperformance.

3. The announcement of negative interest rates in Japan is incredibly bullish for gold. I have seen no media comment on this. The BOJ is indicating that this is just the first step in a prolonged negative interest rate policy. Ultimately, to have any effect, they will need to get to a stage where Japanese savers are charged interest on their bank accounts. If you have any conversation with a gold skeptic, they always start by arguing that gold doesn't pay interest. True, but it isn't subject to negative interest either, so on a relative basis holding gold rather than money in the bank will become far more attractive. The Japanese (I lived there for a large part of my career) have a gold culture and they also tend to herd when moving from one investment idea to the next. Faced with the prospect of negative interest rates, I could see a huge flow of money into gold. Moreover, in yen terms gold has not been subject to a US$ gold bear market and is close to hitting new highs. If BOJ governor Kuroda continues on the road of unconventional monetary policy, then gold is also a safe haven for Japanese investors as the yen gets trashed.

4. We are getting to the end game in China. I can find no historical examples of economies that experience super high GDP growth rates fuelled by massive fixed capital investment that did not eventually have a hard landing. Such economies get overbuilt, returns on asset slump, debts go bad and the economy goes into recession. Just look at Japan, Korea, Taiwan, you name it. China will have a hard landing. In response, I see the Chinese authorities letting the yuan weaken and probably instigating capital controls. If you are a Chinese saver, how can you protect yourself from these two events? Gold. And given the strong gold culture in China, and, like the Japanese, the tendency for Chinese investors to all stampede in and out of investment themes together, then we could suddenly see a massive jump in retail gold demand.

The gold price is acting a lot better. We are up about $75 from the low and even on days when equity markets are strong gold is not giving up its gains. We are also flirting with the 200 day moving average. Again, I sense that when gold breaks through to the upside the move could be explosive. The historical experience is that when gold enters a bull market it doesn't register single digit annual gains but moves by 20% per annum.

In my opinion, this is an epic investment opportunity.

[stevieweebie2] 02/2/2016 21:47

I have 30k of them that's enough for me but they will be held tight till we get over a quid.

[bonnard] 02/2/2016 21:30

I bought more today at 19.4p 18% discount.