Go-ahead Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 27/6/2011 08:24

trt

Yes to Olympic games, but the organisers run scheduled services to/from venues for which they pay a fixed daily rate. Just show a pass to get on. Makes movement more efficient at peak times. Most passengers don't pay per trip they get a discounted "season ticket" & officials get passes. This will temper profitability, but yes increased tourist numbers will see overall increase in public transport use.

Was at Commonwealth Games in Manchester, so saw how it ran.

[trt] 27/6/2011 08:07

Lets not forget GOG will receive a massive boost from the Olympic games next year.
The huge numbers of spectators, officials etc travelling by public transport will boost GOG bottom line dramatically.

The next two years really do look fantastic for GOG and there is of course the possibility of a takeover approach to lift the share price even higher.

[trt] 25/6/2011 06:24

Daily Mail

Transport group Go-Ahead accelerated 76p to 1592p on a Liberum Capital recommendation and target price of 1860p. The broker says it is well placed to win the Greater Anglia franchise – the winner will be announced in late October – having demonstrable skills in running London commuter franchises, experience of introducing similar new trains into the Southern franchise, proven volume generation via marketing and a willingness to contemplate vertical integration.

[trt] 24/6/2011 16:41

Weekend share tips arriving already:

Telegraph

Go-Ahead Group
Questor says BUY

Go-Ahead Group


The transport giant said that full-year operating profit will be ahead of expectations as people move from cars to buses and trains.
This is partly down to the high petrol price, but also because of modern ticketing systems and better marketing and branding.
This marked the last official statement from chief executive Keith Ludeman ahead of his retirement. Incoming chief executive David Brown will take over on July 5.
"Since the depth of the recession in 2008, Go-Ahead has seen solid growth. Three things are driving growth – improving levels of quality, better marketing of our services, and the higher costs of motoring resulting in the public choosing the better value option of the bus," Mr Ludeman said.

The company's Southern rail franchise has continued to perform in line with bid assumptions, with like-for-like passenger revenue and number growth of about 9pc and 3pc respectively.

The deregulated bus division has seen solid growth. Go-Ahead expects full-year passenger revenue to rise by more than 4pc on a like-for-like basis and passenger numbers to see growth of about 2pc.

In its regulated London businesses, like-for-like, full-year operating revenue is expected to reduce by about 2pc, with mileage remaining largely flat. However, following recent contract gains, this situation should improve next year.
Despite the uncertain economic backdrop, the company is cash generative and it operates its bus business in the more urban, profitable areas of the country.

The shares are trading on a June 2011 earnings multiple of 11.4 times, falling to 11.1 in 2012, which looks attractive. The prospective yield is 5.4pc.

The shares were first recommended at £12.15 on June 11 last year and are now 25pc ahead compared with the FTSE 100 up 10pc.

The view remains BUY for the yield.

[trt] 24/6/2011 14:48

If GOG smash the profit estimates of £96m come the 1st September I think the share price could go north of £17.50 very quickly.
I notice several brokers have target prices of £19.50

[trt] 24/6/2011 13:40

Keran,

I think we have a chart breakout so we should push through £16 easily - possibly this afternoon if the FTSE gets a boost from the DOW.

I'm holding, only two months to go before news of a likely increase in the final dividend ( 60p up from 55p that would be nice ). I'll also top up along the way when I can.

[keran] 24/6/2011 13:30

Looks good to go above £16 very shortly indeed would you agree trt?

[enami] 24/6/2011 12:52

This has passed my target (1575), profit sliced at 1581.25.

Next upside Fib target 1671.

[trt] 24/6/2011 08:51

Independent Newspaper

Go-Ahead

Our view: Buy

Share price: 1,516p (+4p)

Go-Ahead's chief executive Keith Ludeman looks set to go out on a high note when he hands over to David Brown early next month.

The transport group's trading statement, published yesterday, may include few specifics ahead of full-year results to be published on 1 September. But the mood is bullish as the company forecasts that it will beat profit expectations.

The best news for Go-Ahead is in the rail sector, where its three franchises – London Midland, Southern and South-Eastern – show thoroughly respectable growth in passenger revenues and volumes.

The group's bus arm is less of a stellar performer, although the dent in revenues in its regulated London operations is offset by a strong outlook for the coming year and by growth in its smaller businesses outside the capital.

Go-Ahead has bags of potential, with a forward earnings ratio of 11.6 times, falling to 10.9 times on the estimates for next year, according to Deutsche Bank. And remember, rising oil prices, while negative from one angle, present an opportunity for transport firms as drivers think twice about their expensive-to-run cars.

[keran] 24/6/2011 08:03

Yes trt GOG looking good.Second profit upgrade in four months is fantastic.
Chart looking good as well.

[trt] 23/6/2011 12:42

Investec Securities said it now expected Go-Ahead to post pre-tax profits of £96 million, a 7% increase on its previous forecast and an improvement of 9.5% on the previous year.

marketing and improved operating standards were helping to drive growth as it forecast profits for the year to July will be ahead of previous expectations – the second upgrade in four months.

[trt] 23/6/2011 08:10

I think we could be in for a well earned increase in the final dividend come the September results become of GOG beating profit expectations. It currently stands at 55p could we see that rise to 60p !!! IMHO

[trt] 23/6/2011 07:19

Fantastic - Trading ahead of company's and market expectations.

THE GO-AHEAD GROUP PLC ("Go-Ahead" or the "Group")

PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE

Trading ahead of the Board's expectations

The Go-Ahead Group plc today announces its pre-close trading update for the year ending 2 July 2011 ahead of its full year results which will be announced on 1 September 2011.

Overall, we are pleased with the Group's performance and we now anticipate that the Group will deliver full year operating profit* ahead of our previous expectations.

Keith Ludeman, Group Chief Executive of Go-Ahead, said:

"Since the depth of the recession in 2008, Go-Ahead has seen solid growth. Three things are driving growth - improving levels of quality, better marketing of our services, and the higher costs of motoring resulting in the public choosing the better value option of the bus.

[trt] 21/6/2011 12:46

Has the market got wind of a very positive update coming on Thursday !!!

Just topped up in anticipation.

[trt] 05/6/2011 19:02

Telegraph

Traders jumped aboard transport companies as JP Morgan Cazenove published a bullish note on Stagecoach and Go-Ahead.


Starting coverage of the bus and train operators with an "overweight" rating, analysts said that assuming the economy does not dip back into recession and a recovery is under way, falling unemployment should drive revenues for bus and rail businesses.

The broker also thought that Go-Ahead was well-placed to benefit as unemployment falls, adding that its "size and strength in UK rail make it attractive to any consolidators we believe". Go-Ahead ticked up 29p to £14.90 while Stagecoach advanced 9 to 249.1p.

[trt] 03/6/2011 16:19

02/06/2011 Sharecast - there are some interesting movements in the rail and bus sector this morning. Go-Ahead and Stagecoach, which have been initiated with an "overweight" rating by JP Morgan, are posting gains, but National Express, slapped with an "underweight" tag by the broker, is firmly in the red. JP Morgan likes Stagecoach's exposure to buses and Go-Ahead's southeast England focus.

[trt] 03/6/2011 16:08

Pre close trading update 23rd June - should make for very enjoyable reading indeed especially as profits are now going to exceed market expectations

[trt] 03/6/2011 08:34

Bid rumours ?????

[enami] 03/6/2011 08:15

5%+ up this morning - any rumours?

[trt] 18/5/2011 15:31

RBC have started coverage of Go Ahead with an Outperform rating and £19.00 price target

[trt] 13/5/2011 10:27

At least £17.80 when you do the projected maths I would say

[enami] 13/5/2011 09:43

Upside break today caused by

Go-Ahead Group started with buy recommendation at Deutsche, target price 1780p

[trt] 09/5/2011 18:05

Petrol price fuels jump in rail travel
Mon 09 May 2011

LONDON (SHARECAST) - A sharp rise in petrol prices in the last three months has contributed to a leap in the number people taking the train, according to rail companies.

Figures published by the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) show that passenger numbers on the railways grew by 4.8% in the first three months of 2011.

A total of 316m journeys were made in the first quarter of 2011, compared to 301m over the same period last year.

Over the whole year to March passenger numbers totalled 1.34bn.

Michael Roberts, ATOC chief executive, said the amount of people taking the train was rising to a level not witnessed in peacetime Britain since the 1920s.

Journeys in London and the South East grew by 4.7%0, long distance journeys by 4.1% and regional journeys by 5.2%.

Research by Ipsos MORI for ATOC shows that 1 in 12 rail users switched from car to train for at least one journey during February and March because of high petrol prices.

[trt] 06/5/2011 08:14

TELEGRAPH - Questor share tip: Upbeat update puts Go-Ahead on the right track

Bus and rail operator Go-Ahead Group said it would deliver operating profits ahead of expectations yesterday, sending its shares 7pc higher. Questor says buy.


Go-Ahead Group
£14.95 +95p
Questor says BUY



Go-Ahead Group


Third-quarter trading has been strong after good growth across all of its businesses. Indeed, Go-Ahead said the numbers provided evidence of a "modal shift" as passengers have left their cars at home in reaction to the high oil price.


The figures support this assumption. Revenues in its deregulated bus operations increased 8.3pc on a like-for-like basis, or 9.8pc when acquisitions are included. Passenger numbers were up 7.2pc in total, or 5.4pc on a like-for-like basis.


The shares were hit last year on worries that the recession would crimp passenger numbers plus concerns that transport operators would suffer big cuts in the subsidies they received. Questor recommended a purchase after the shares plunged from £15 to £12.15, arguing that the falls were overdone and the shares were cheap. Indeed, they were below the price target of even the gloomiest of City analysts at that time.


However, an important subsidy for bus services – the Bus Service Operator Grant – was saved from a draconian cut in last year's comprehensive spending review. This will be maintained until 2012 and then be cut by 20pc over three years. The grant reimburses bus companies for 80pc of the fuel duty on certain services that would otherwise be unviable. The market had priced in its complete demise.


There may have been job losses in the downturn but the shift to alternative transport because of high oil prices has contributed to the rise. Go-Ahead has fuel requirements in its bus operations of about 115m litres a year. It is fully hedged for the current and next financial years at an average of 41p a litre and 25pc hedged for the following year at an average of 42p a litre.

Keith Ludeman, chief executive, highlighted the new ways of paying for bus trips online, which are attracting a new kind of passenger, especially as internet payment offers discounts.

Rail revenues continued to grow in the third quarter. Passenger revenue grew 11.6pc in the Southern franchise, with passenger volumes up 2.3pc. In Southeastern, passenger revenues rose 7.5pc and numbers 7.6pc. For London Midland, passenger revenue grew 11.2pc and passenger numbers 11pc. The company has also recently been short-listed for the Greater Anglia franchise.

Despite the uncertain economic backdrop, the company is cash generative and the latest update is encouraging. The company also operates its bus business in the more urban, profitable areas of the country.

The shares are trading on a June 2011 earnings multiple of 12.2 times, falling to 11.9 in 2012, which looks attractive.

Since the shares were first recommended on June 11 last year, they have risen 23pc, compared with the FTSE 100 up 14pc.

The shares were recommended as a dividend play and investors who bought in on the initial recommendation should have locked in a very good yield of 6.6pc. The current prospective yield is 5.4pc, which remains attractive. The rating remains buy for the yield.

[trt] 05/5/2011 12:05

Broker upgrades starting to come through, these should provide a further boost to the share price