Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 31/1/2024 08:30

Good point re batteries, but there's similar issues all over the renewables ITs, albeit people usually disagree.

Most are just a finite life asset class with a lease on land they don't actually own. You're basically getting your capital back in dividends over X number of years.

Seems to me most of the business models were about continually being able to raise more cash by issuing shares - so instead of a block of earning assets all expiring in the same few years, there'd be a long runway and continual renewal.

No longer, with premia having become discounts.

They're not all like that - struggle to keep up, but some invest some of their earnings rather than paying it all out as divis.

But some of the popular ones simply pay it all out - what are you really getting? It's very different to a trading business, and the discounts/yields ought to reflect that (and in some cases now arguably do).

[lord gnome] 31/1/2024 08:04

Surely battery life should be covered in accounts under depreciation, scruff?

[scruff1] 31/1/2024 07:58

Interesting discussion over on LSE about depreciation of batteries and how its never mentioned in any RNS or accounted for on the balance sheet. As an ex cost accountant Im surprised its never previously occurred to me. My greatest concern has always been advances/changes in the technology something which often affects battery powering. Taken together though they do muddy the water somewhat imo and could be a factor in investor reluctance

[rogerrail] 30/1/2024 13:12

If you read the rns realeases you will note that Rathbones are reducing. They held 13.7% and this went down to 11.9% at the last rns. I guess after a pause they have recommenced selling. IMO this is a temporary impact on the share price so a good time to buy albeit difficult to call the bottom.

[leopoldalcox] 30/1/2024 12:08

Can someone please link the Jefferies report, if it's free to access? I can't find it

[cc2014] 30/1/2024 12:01

#923

That just about covers it Melody. For the last 3 quarters the dividend has been covered. For sure UK revenue is struggling but as I wrote the other day UK is only 18% of GSF's business by revenue so even if it does fall it won't have a major impact.

Set against that by the end of the year we will have Stony, Ferrymuir, Enderby and PBSL2 providing revenue taking the active capacity from 292 to 528 with Big Rock and Dogfish coming online in Q1 2025 taking it to 813

I don't really care what Jefferies says because if you nearly triple the capacity, you nearly triple the revenue and the dividend has been covered for the last quarter without the tripling of the revenue.


I accept it's not that simple a calculation because there will be interest costs and battery pricing is volatile etc. etc. but it seems to me it's a half decent bet revenues will double within 18 months with some margin of safety

Oh and if Jefferies are correct that the dividend is only 0.5x covered which I do not accept because it looks like some kids scribblings where they have applied the UK BESS rates to the rest of the world without any thought about that, if you triple the revenue even on their premise the dividend is still covered in about a years time, which is only natural when you are still in the construction phase with your assets.

[melody9999] 30/1/2024 11:33

This recently on revenues and dividends:
- during the September-end quarter (Q2), the Company delivered an operational dividend cover of 1.15x
- and on Q3 to end Dec: Strong Revenue Stability Continues: the Company achieved an estimated quarterly revenue of £15.1/MW/hr, consistent with the £15.1/MW/hr generated during FY H1.

Stable revenues = stable dividend.

This is from the company - the rest is noise.

[alan pt] 30/1/2024 11:30

@CC2014 Heading up again, you might have just called the bottom

[nickelmer] 30/1/2024 11:03

All the BESS stocks simply need to address dividend fears that are being circulated, they need to clarify the dividend policy, provided that remains as forecast these will recover quickly, but for now the doubt remains. GORE have been pretty clear on the policy but I feel they should re-confirm to fearful investors

[melody9999] 30/1/2024 11:02

Grateful for Nickelmer for reminding me of the TU from just 3 weeks ago which covered the period until 311223. Ridiculous that the share price has fallen 25% since then, They also said:

Positive Market Outlook: the Company continues to observe favourable market trends, particularly across the US, Irish and mainland European markets and has positioned itself for sustained growth in the energy storage markets globally. The demand for flexibility services, provided by assets like those of the Company, remains robust.

One month later and I doubt much has changed.

[cc2014] 30/1/2024 09:25

It looks more to me like someone is capitulating. Can't take the pain any longer.

My sense is that they have now finished or perhaps have one more lump to go.

[scruff1] 30/1/2024 09:19

So far it seems to have pivoted the wrong way !!. What I cant quite get my head around and that worries me is that we all have the same sort of level of anticipation for what is predicted to be coming on line and we can keep talking about it til we are blue in the face but the price keeps falling so presumably there are large numbers of investors who dont share that same faith as they must keep selling and if they are selling at these levels they must be selling at a loss so why would they do that? What has changed since they were motivated to buy? A large buy by a board member would be a good settler. Todays fall is a big un considering and there are a lot of sellers prepared to lose money.

[waterloo01] 30/1/2024 08:42

If this is a read across from Gresham house VCT it's very misplaced. They suffer from old solar infrastructure. Very different beast.

[nickelmer] 30/1/2024 06:51

From the GSF Jan 10 trading statement

"Looking ahead, we anticipate the Company's most pivotal year yet with operational capacity scheduled to expand to over 800 MW, including 200 MW coming online in the Company's fifth market to date; potential capital recycling; and a strengthening dividend cover from a diverse source of revenue streams. The Company is poised for significant growth and we look forward to updating the market regularly as these plans progress."

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 18:01

The fall isn't unprecedented tho, & is nothing like eg HEIT's. It's screaming for a retest of lows IMO, & if it gapped through that, you might fancy a statement.

[cocopah] 29/1/2024 17:57

I’ve emailed both the CEO and Gore Street Capital. It’s absolutely crazy this silence. They either need to issue a rebuttal to Jefferies or alternatively come clean with investors if the dividend cover is not going to be 1+.

Bear in mind that at the last investor communication they were keen to point out that they were almost there.

What blows my mind is that the CEO has lots of skin in the game so cannot be happy with where the share price is. Neither can the folks at Nidec! 🤷‍a94;️🤔

[scruff1] 29/1/2024 15:00

Could have done with support at 120p !

[return_of_the_apeman] 29/1/2024 14:16

Could do with support at 70p holding

[yump] 29/1/2024 14:06

Jeffries et al would have no credibility if they said things would deteriorate when the share price was much higher. Same as wealth managers. Their job is to not lose you money, rather than make gains.

As long as they can all point at what the market is doing, they have a get-out clause.

It would hardly have looked credible to issue lots of buy notes in March 2000, or 2003, or 2008 etc etc and yet those were the times to pile in.

They were all over the dotcom boom though. Until it wasn’t one any more.

This country needs more people that can do stuff and far less commentators.

[mylands] 29/1/2024 12:58

Nearly 3 milion traded today and not even 1pm. The selling continues.

[panshanger1] 29/1/2024 12:52

Some big lines going through Significant seller out there it seems to me Minded to add a few more but not sure we're at the bottom yet

[fordtin] 27/1/2024 17:23

panshanger1 - reading it your way makes most of the other targets look suspiciously vague. Why bother saying December and End of Year?

Project - Big Rock
Target Energisation - Dec - end 2024

Project - Dog Fish
Target Energisation - Dec - end 2024

Project – Enderby
Target Energisation - May - end 2024

Project - Wichita Falls
Target Energisation - June - end 2025

Project - Mesquite
Target Energisation - June - end 2025

Project - Cedar Hill
Target Energisation - June - end 2025

Project - Mineral Wells
Target Energisation - June - end 2025

[scruff1] 27/1/2024 15:52

Ferrymuir was on track for energisation in Nov 2023 !!

[waterloo01] 27/1/2024 14:43

The yield will reduce when/if the share price recovers. With a NAV that really should be increasing year on year, with very low debt levels, and hopefully more than 1:1 divi cover this year, I don't see the need for GSF to change the formula. It's the share price that's wrong.

The damage was done last year when prices in the UK went through the floor. Even the Jefferies report suggest the UK will be back in balance later in 24, and the report, which would have been useful 9 months ago, but regardless GST best of the bunch by a mile.