Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[scruff1] 03/2/2024 07:58

Specto - I thought the article explained pretty well how they got it wrong or at least what conspired to bring them down - although we have all discussed pretty much the same ad nauseam and we know that if GSF miss the dividend cover and fail to pay it the the same fate awaits us though obviously we are in a better position. Interesting that they speculate on a takeover of HEIT. If one did occur it would be a vote of confidence in the future of the sector. I dont have enough confidence in it to take a punt on HEIT though even though it probably is oversold. Having said that looking at the chart GSF is hardly a mile behind em

[waterloo01] 02/2/2024 19:42

If the UK market recovers in the next few years, there are some fairly cheap assets out there currently, given the NAV discounts esp on GRID. Someone should consolidate the sector maybe?

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 19:31

Thanks @scruff1, just read it but must admit leant nothing new from it, other than HEIT still being committed to pay 8p per year, seemingly out of capital by selling things. Lol.

[yump] 02/2/2024 19:21

Batteries are a relatively new area. I suspect that the usual suspects - investment managers and BOD’s, have experience in managing well-established income generating assets.

But not in anticipating or even planning well for changes in this new market.

Financial managers are not the first people I’d choose to manage anything where business developments contain unknowns that may be unpredictable.

More fool me for not thinking about that before and buying some HEIT.

Some of them will have been able to adapt and some not, presumably thinking that its just a different form of property asset and rental management.

[scruff1] 02/2/2024 18:40

Specto - read the citi wire article

[alan pt] 02/2/2024 17:06

Something structural could be V2G/V2X, especially combined with solid state batteries, but that's at least 5 years away at scale

GRID seems to be going from bad to worse - their answer to poor revenue in the UK is to suspend work on their new US asset to save money???

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 14:59

Thanks @smidge21, albeit "co that diversifies revenue says revenue diversifying is good (& uncorrelated)".

My fear, perhaps unfounded, would be something structural, and not limited to one market at a time. What does that do to the investment thesis.

GSF by far the pick of them, but how could HEIT/GRID get it so wrong?

[scruff1] 02/2/2024 14:42

Article in city wire about GRID, HEIT and GSF - mainly HEIT but a good synopsis of the BESS situation in the UK

[smidge21] 02/2/2024 14:41

(From Company)

[smidge21] 02/2/2024 14:41

"Regarding your questions on dividend and revenue (durability), we believe energy storage revenues are cyclical, and in each of the markets we are active in, we see seasonal variation and periods of higher and lower revenue generation. The typical variation we see in each market is shown on the graphic below and available on page 12 of the Company's interim presentation here. As well as the seasonal variation, broader moves in markets can occur, such as the current dynamics we are seeing in GB. This cyclical nature of the industry highlights the importance of portfolios being diversified across different markets, which, while sharing the same investment thesis, are, in fact, uncorrelated. The Company included in its Interim results a regression analysis, which compared GSF's GB revenue data from the Company's inception with that from its diversified fleet. The analysis showed the standard revenue deviation per quarter amounted to £4.95 per MW/hr. In the analysis of the consolidated fleet, which includes assets in Ireland, Germany, Texas, and GB, the quarterly standard deviation of revenue dropped significantly to £ 2.68 per M/hr. This reduction of approximately 50% (post-FX) showcases the tangible impact of diversification on revenue stability and, thus, a Company's ability to sustainably pay dividends to its investors. For further details, please see page 13 of the Company's interim report

[leadixon] 02/2/2024 13:52

appreciate the update Cocopah - good work

[cc2014] 02/2/2024 10:53

What next? First GSF has clearly decoupled from HEIT and GRID so it's good to see most investors have got to grips with the idea that 82% of GSF's revenues are not from the UK. Perhaps most investors that are left well informed.

I'd like to think that in the background GSF have been quietly reassuring investors and that this is the bottom and the share price will bounce from here. I have my fingers crossed.

[nickelmer] 02/2/2024 09:30

Investors likely to sell GRID and HEIT and switch into the better portfolio that is GSF

[mr george stobbart] 02/2/2024 09:08

Harmony cut the dividend until further notice. Down another -10% and has fallen in the 30p purgatory. Market is pricing a bust or a wind-up similar to the likes of Digital 9 Trust.

Gore Street the only one not to come out with a trading/dividend update.

GSF shares up today whilst the GRID / HEIT duo taking another bath

[waterloo01] 01/2/2024 19:50

Well done for reaching out. Look forward to the feedback.

[cocopah] 01/2/2024 19:21

I am currently in correspondence with investor relations, funnily enough this started before the news from #GRID today. I have a call booked to discuss why there seems to be a reluctance to update NAV monthly (like #SEQI do) and also to give forward guidance on dividend cover (until the issue goes away). I also want to understand the difference between operational dividend cover and fund-wide dividend cover (the latter being the cause of the recent slump since the Jefferies note).

The call is booked for next week, so I am also going to bring up investor frustration at the lack of communication following today’s announcement by #GRID. Unless #GSF have some bad news to share it seems ludicrous that they do not put a statement out saying that dividend is covered or (say) 90% covered on an ongoing basis and that the dividend is safe. After all, they were keen to tell us all about dividend cover being above 1.15 for the last quarter so they can’t have it both ways (i.e. say that they don’t want to say anything now when they made such a hullabaloo about the dividend cover at the last update).

In fairness the investor relations team at Gore Street are approachable and will communicate, so I suggest investors on here should contact them … if nothing else a significant number of approaches by those on this forum will probably result in an RNS.🤷‍♂️€077;🏻

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 19:00

H-P wanted billions, but it was they who were stupid enough to buy AU., at a big premium, despite being told that the accounts were suspect. The main bearish analyst even wrote to the H-P board.

Anyway... :)

Not currently in GSF but I do like it - seems by far the best-managed. Saw the UK problems coming ages ago, and also that 14m share issuance at NAV to deal with any CapEx concerns.

Not entirely immune, but not exactly expensive here.

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 16:46

No - what's right is the price they meet at :)

EMH clearly bull, but neither can you buck the market. Doesn't matter how cheap and successful the wonderful share you've bought is - if it tanks, it tanks.

Vice versa and even worse on the short side, as I discovered being short Autonomy once.

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 16:39

re; post #955 "the market rarely gets it wrong".

Anyone who owns shares and is considering selling some of their shares, or perhaps all of their shares, is part of the market.
Anyone buying shares, or contemplating buying shares, is part of the market.

Are they all right all of the time?

[yump] 01/2/2024 12:29

The market had it right for nesf, phnx, aviva, sre, bbox when they were all at lows. At the time.

Fortunately plenty of investors didn’t believe “the market” and they are all now higher by a fair bit.

So which market is right ?

I think the clue is when there’s a general drop (this time interest rate induced), but the company you’re watching carries on down when the others stabilise.

Hence the effect of debt costs on the share price of sme loss makers.

[scruff1] 01/2/2024 10:56

Its winter here

[alan pt] 01/2/2024 10:54

To be fair, we are doing a lot better than GRID - 56% loss in just one month!