Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ohisay] 31/3/2014 14:53

No TRP/GBP merger then.

[stockonomist] 31/3/2014 14:05

Good sign. Does he actually do anything to earn his salary though?

[chinahere] 31/3/2014 14:00

I like the CEO taking on some of these. I wonder if we will get more notifications of purchases over the next few days?

[philo124] 31/3/2014 08:07

Director buy.

[stockonomist] 29/3/2014 22:47

Setting up for the next spike up to 7p

[doughty] 26/3/2014 13:44

Alex Hawk 21 Mar'14 - 12:28 - 5160 of 5166 0 0

Looks like some consolidation between 6.25p and 7.5p.

[aim999] 26/3/2014 13:23

A nice way of describing 'tanking'

[doughty] 26/3/2014 12:16

Further "consolidation" !

[alex hawk] 25/3/2014 14:26

Thanks for posting.

[ohisay] 25/3/2014 13:47

p95 onwards.

Valuation
We estimate that the current fair value of Global's share price is A¢38.0
(21.5p), which is over 3x higher than its A¢11.5 (6.25p) price on 26
February 2014. In our 'success' scenario we estimate that Global's shares
could be worth A¢69 (39p) by end-2014, while in our 'failure' scenario we
estimate they could be worth A¢21 (12p), still well above today's share
price. We outline our key assumptions behind these estimates below. As
Global does not yet have fully mature prospects, we do not believe that it
is meaningful to calculate an EV/net risked 2P prospective resource
multiple.
Key Assumptions
For our Current Fair Value Estimate
 We have conservatively valued Global Petroleum's interest in Licence
EL 0029 using the average Walvis Basin farm-in multiple over the last
couple of years of US$5,700/km2.
 We have conservatively ascribed no value to Global's Juan de Nova Est
licence as it is currently being renewed. Nor have we ascribed any
value for its Italian licence applications.
 We have assumed that 2014 G&A and exploration expenditure is A$4m.
For our 'Success' Scenario Value Estimate
All assumptions are the same as above except:
 We assume that Global farms out Licence 0029 in 2014 on the same
valuation level as Pancontinental achieved with Tullow
(US$11,564/km2) in September 2013.
For our 'Failure' Scenario Value Estimate
All assumptions are the same as current fair value except:
 We assume that Global farms out Licence 0029 in 2014 on the same
valuation level as Eco Atlantic achieved with Azimuth (US$2,500/km2)
in April 2012.

[stockonomist] 24/3/2014 23:31

Consolidating between 6.25 and 6.75 before a push to maybe 7.25-7.5p range

[doughty] 21/3/2014 16:27

LOL !.....you mean its DOWN !

[alex hawk] 21/3/2014 12:28

Looks like some consolidation between 6.25p and 7.5p.

[aim999] 21/3/2014 05:29

GBP on ASX +23%I think the Aussies have a taste for Namibia too with 700k traded overnight

[nick9013] 20/3/2014 23:55

This could multi bag

[alex hawk] 20/3/2014 22:00

Thanks - edited to mention 500k late reported sell (guessing could be a buy) @ 7p which I missed.

[p1nkfish] 20/3/2014 21:53

Very good post and spot on.
Sit tight.

[alex hawk] 20/3/2014 20:59

Strong technicals now:

GBP has broken out on yearly high volume (4.8m today highest in last 5 years 5.8m), MACD has turned, Stock/RSI bottomed out and Momentum gone positive. All three moving averages taken out (20,50,200) & nearly a golden cross all leading to higher highs. Very Bullish.

The last time we had such a strong weekly move we did [6.75-14p] 2009, [9p-25p] late 2010/early 2011 [10-20p] 2012 just goes to show with so few shares in public hands when interest builds this does truly snowball since then don't believe we have had in more shares issued.

Fundementally:

Bid deadline for its own acreage farm-in early April, and neighbours TRP drilling next door mid-April - small posibility backed by its cash levels (approx 5p) they may farm-in to TRP. Both parties actively looking for a farm-in so perhaps even a joint farm-in. New acquisitions in Italy to be confirmed as well Juan extension news.

In terms of downside 5p cash, if TRP dust expect a hit but if they can confirm presense of hydrocarbons albeit not in commercial quantities then bodes well for GBP but TRP will get smashed 80-90%. Besides the TRP hype its a binary play whether you think GBP will do 3D, get a farm-in and drill within 2 years (approx licence terms) if they do then its fair to assume historic highs of 25p @ £50mc be easily exceeded judging by TRP valuation pre-drill.

7p level same price directors last bought as well a year ago.

Fair to assume sellers (500k late sell @ 7p) have been exhausted by today's volume inc tax sellers. Once we break 10p which isn't too far now - dare we dream of 15-20p+ :-D

No ramp intended time to sit tight might be a few shakes along the way to create liquidity for further moves up.

[aim999] 20/3/2014 20:30

Nice to have a safety net I think ..... At these low levels OK with me GBP was in the 20p+ when they got the Namibian blocks .... Worth more now given the drill next door and it might extend into GBPs block Hold and sit tight Buying this week says it all

[alex hawk] 20/3/2014 15:06

3m volume traded - are the players joining or is the game changing?

[philo124] 20/3/2014 14:57

Good; not planning to sell in this tax year.

[ifthecapfits] 20/3/2014 13:11

And still all 'O' trades - so it doesn't look like the 'bots' are palying this rise. All bodes well I guess!